Member Info for FlyingHigher

In full disclosure I'll review at 36p, which recovers previous losses. I certainly don't expect to reach that level without news because it would be a bit overvalued at that price right now in my opinion.

The outcome of the settlement was actually towards the upper end of my dooms day scenario prediction after the second RNS, albeit with the sale of IP, whatever the impact of that is.
I then sat down and tried to figure out the value of Nanoco now as I posted here and I believe a range of 25-30p seems right for now.

However, with a slow Cash burn, we have lots of time to see what Nanoco will do next in sensing and maybe other markets eventually.

Gigawitt- I just bought back in at 27p.
It's a speculative buy because there's a lack of clarity but this share price is now well backed in my opinion.

Nanoco are funded for over 46 years on current cash burn. £75m/1.6m cash burn.

There's about £69m coming to Nanoco.
The current cash is £6m.
£10m for Runcorn.
Valuing £85m worth of assets at £64.4m at 20p, would be too cheap in my opinion.
I can't say if the market will oversell Nanoco or not of course.
The current share price doesn't value the sensing applications business. You could make a credible case for that business being worth something.
Nanoco is looking a little cheap at the moment.

£69m is the retained settlement, £6m cash - £75m in total

Sorry all, this is bothering me, one final (I promise) value assessment:
£75m total cash coming to Nanoco.
£10m maybe for Runcorn.
A loss-making business earning £2.9m per year in revenue, but set to lose £1.6m per year currently based on today's update.
£85m is a certainty for now, but depleting £1.6m per year and without a clear breakeven point.
£85m is 26.4p, so the market seems to be discounting the sensing applications business and perhaps due to the lack of visibility of it, which makes sense.
Positives:
Massive cash balance like never before
Slow Cash burn
Lots of time to grow sensing applications market.

Negatives:
Over-reliance on Single partner in the Sensing Applications market, which could fail as has happened every time previously.
Unclear tangible revenue projections.

Risk:
Fundamentally, we don't know whether Nanoco are capable of building a sustainable business, producing scalable technology. If STM were to fall through as many other opportunities have done, it would leave Nanoco in an extremely precarious position in terms of where to go next.

During the court discussions, I think it was Michael Edelman who was quite open about the prospect of turning Nanoco into an IP shell company, purely focused on litigation if business opportunities didn't transpire.
Now it seems, this has reversed and Brian Tenner is saying the Organic Business is the focus.

If this fails, I think it's the end of the road and I could quite realistically see Nanoco being sold off at a bargain basement price, maybe with a final special dividend to long-suffering shareholders.

For now, a share price of 25p - 30p seems fair to me.
We need a major inflection point to build on that and show that the business can replace the settlement cash with sustainable revenues.

BotBot - £12m is even less than the ridiculous valuation I put on the rest of the business, yet that's what the market currently says.
How much is runcorn worth and how much is the sensor business worth?

BBD - I see your calculation now thanks, so it looks like the company have possibly tried to hide the $5m retained settlement with the IP sale figure. It seems potentially misleading to me.
It would be very easy to communicate this information properly, which makes me think it's smoke and mirrors.
Anyway, with this now completely clarified I'm definitely off. I have no business being here.
I might speak to people again on other boards.

BBD - please converse in a civil manner. I think your calculations are also mistaken because you've taken the $85m IP sale as 100% then attributed $5m for the royalties, when the company has stated $150m with 60% across both totaling $90m.
In short I think your breakdown is wrong, but please explain if I'm mistaken.

BBD - Sorry yet $85m for license sale, the rest for royalties. It wasn't me making things up, it was me getting my words muddled. I still can't make sense of how this breaks down into $90m across the two with deferred payments.

$90m is currently £73m - I just checked
+ £6m cash / 322m shares gives us 24.5p per share.
We don't know how much tax they may have to pay just yet, but the point here is IF this is correct, the organic business is valued at next to nothing.
I've asked for help with my understanding of the RNS because I might be wrong, but to me the current share price must have bottomed out. It looks more towards the cheap end.
I'm certainly not a buyer because I can't see much of a sustainable business business yet, but we shall see.

I got this completely wrong and need help with this.
$65m for license agreement (which is spread over 9 years)
$85m for damages.
However $90m retained for both.
So how does that work with the £54m license fees being spread over 9 years?
What is the breakdown within the $90m of licensing v damages? and if Nanoco are receiving the licensing for 8 years after this current year, do they pay the funder out of that money?
Help please!

Good morning all,
My prediction of retained cash of £50m - £80m after the last RNS proved accurate. Don't worry we'll move on in a civil way.
£54m retained encompassing absolutely everything. Some revenue to come in on top of a few million over a few years.
The comments I made about Samsung dominating display also look like they'll be correct after the IP sale.
We also don't know how much tax is coming, but we shall see. The talk of a negative balance suggests we may have to pay some tax in future, which is covered by some of the settlement money.
The share price now is not expensive.
£60m in the bank for now, valuing the rest or the business at £33m. This is in the right territory and we can argue slightly either way, but it's not massive.
The display sector is likely to be dead, but Nanoco's competence has been proven. They know what they're doing, which will surely create new opportunities in sensing and eventually, other sectors.
For now, revenue prospects remain too murky for me to get excited, especially after a disappointing cash settlement like that (may have been my heightened expectations).
I expect this to hover around 30p for a while and it might be a good investment once they can prove the value of their organic business. No need for hype or panic at this point.
I think that's me done for a while here, take care all. Have a lovely weekend and all the best for the future. I know I said this before but got too triggered by the conversations here, which I felt were willfully misleading people into losing money. That's behind us now.

lejjb - I was on the same page as you, but unfortunately Nanoco deliberately put a massive dampener on expectations. Why did they move from the scenario you correctly describe to a much more cautious one? What changed?

troublesome you really have sunk to a new low and I didn't think that was possible for you. You should be ashamed.

The key words there being "in court." This is pre-trial.

You're applying the logic a jury would use to make predictions about a pre-trial settlement.
This is erroneous logic.
As Screenlearner and GigaWitt have suggested, and I agree with them, settlement talks are unlikely to be so scientific and will be based on what both parties consider reasonable.
It could be as simple as Nanoco saying to Samsung that they want to retain £50m for the organic business after all costs have been paid, then they make the numbers work. We'll see, it's a negotiation.

I think it's returning to well established support levels on no news.
I'd expect to see 45p soon and then possibly 31 from there if there's no update.
However, longer term this is a potentially massive opportunity and I wouldn't worry if I was sat on a loss here.

20p by Monday