Member Info for flushfrank

Oversold ...rebound back to £5.50 tomorrow & breath.

Stop losses beware, can see a 10 min drop to silly money say £3.30 take you out, before back to £4 in a flash & a strong rise back upwards past £5

If emotion is removed & fundamentals reviewed anyone selling sub £4 is giving them away at a fire sale prices...driven by fear imo.

Fag packet sums - £4 =£280m MCAP. Minus £130m cash in bank. Valuing company at just £150m !!

Private sector was always going to overtake NHS as they steer away into making venues & workplaces pick up the tab. This sector is where the growth is imo. This is why the nova team went into Versalab etc. Always ahead of the curve.

At £6.90 the P.ll contract was priced in as us not having it. The contract dispute is what has spooked PI’s. This is happens all the time. Would not be good at their job if didn’t dispute & try save money. I’m thinking it was us trying to charge old tests as well as then the new pro-mate.
I wished they had stipulated what sum of Q4 cash was under contention. Is it £2m, £10m or £50m. I can only hope a 7am RNS tomorrow to put more meat on the bones to the rushed poorly executed 12:30pm Friday RNS.

Looking ahead.
Nova publishes that they have taken (£36m) £12m a month Q1 private contracts. Armed with a focused sales force now away from the DHSC hurdle jumping, I envisage this to continue to grow.

The business is still on to turnover £180m this year at a high margin. Yet the ‘entire business’ is being valued at just £150m

Fundamentals do not stack up.
Happy to debate, but any de-rampers please add in context on why you think & not just we’re doomed. If you want to scare for a cheaper entry say it.

GLA to the LTH’s. The pain is real ...didn’t not see that 40% drop coming. Have regained feeling from being numb yesterday & revisiting why invested in the first place.
A £150m company, zero debt, bringing in £3m a week at >60% margin....compare this to other AIM valuations.
FF

I as many absolutely shell shocked. Sitting on a massive paper loss...the biggest single day loss for me in 15 years of investing. With the 50+ jobs I got this totally wrong & was in super super heavy. Are a frugal company so why such the need to expand heads if contracts not coming into fruition?., still confused on that.
Put it all on red & today came out black. Did contemplate selling half but with price dropping at 50p a minute, I’ve seen it before ...bounces back as soon as I sell with MM’s creating panic. Unfortunately got that wrong too. Never did I believe I’d see £4 again.

Positive is that minus the DHSC contract, company is still pulling in £36m a quarter. Sat with in-excess of £100m cash in bank & zero debt. Compare to some COVID plays (not even making a sell yet) MCAP’s vs ours now at sub £300m then this 40% drop has to be over done.

I wish I had more funds to average down but done that at £6.90 thinking was a steal.
Hurting but hoping . Have new acquisition (if still going ahead) new generation LFT, US contract, or take over to hopefully push us back to double digits.

What a day

why not. MCAP of just over £300m, >£100m of cash in bank & doing £12m of sales a month away from DHSC.
Bargain

Still a mega earning company away form the disappointment on DHSC contract

Anyone like to speculate why so many auto trades of 500 went through last hour ?
Did their machine break ?

With I believe 60% of the share issue still over the pond, what we need in adjacent to DHSC contracts is a substantial French order. This would invigorate the SP.
The team developed them a 2 gene test at each stage, for the French domestic market, so could be approved for reimbursement. Not seen anything in terms of traction with contracts.
Look at the state of affairs they are in too.

SP Testing us all again, as this share has a tendency to do. Been here for a very long time. Most comparable was when we dropped from over £5 to £2.30. Weeks & weeks of torment from the de-rampers, who emerge from under their rocks & instil doubt to even the most committed. Back then I believe their view was going to 20p? Diamond Horse being one.

Then we were rewarded with a rise from £3 to £12. We are currently bouncing at £7. Who knows where the next rise will take us from this level.

There is loads of great researchers here & I follow on Twitter. Hats off to some of the diligence & finds. Amazes me. Helps keep me sane. Ty !

Two of 25+ reasons I keep adding any available funds at this price.
1. Mullis parted with £500k of his cash at £8.17. Open market purchase. No dodgy dilution or warrants etc. Best placed to know what is going on under the NDA’s. Sure he didn’t plan to lose £120k either. He invested knowing there is more to come.

2. Novacyt has frugality running through its DNA. Working with zero cash, extreme tight budgets, not knowing where the next funds would come, over many years. Solid board & they do not waste a penny without a planned ROI.
50+ jobs added to the payroll, covering the UK. This would not have been taken on a punt. There is a plan. Potentially huge. They are restricted on communication, thus hurting the SP, but also gives opportunity to new PI’s.

Fortune favours the brave as they say. At this price imo it’s not brave it just makes sense. Each to their own.
GLA

Nice work ! Ty

SC ?
I’d like the company to buy some from cash showing how undervalued the SP is, reducing issue hence increasing the value of shares held.

It doesn’t make great business sense, (depleting cash) & highly unlikely, but as J says SP is great value at the moment. A small £10m buy back. Might do something to stem the decline.

I’d vote for it.
1,626,248, at these prices be a smidge over £10m from the growing cash pot. Leave a clean 69m in issue.

Reminds me of the dark period when went from £5 to £2. Then up to £12. Held all the way too up & back down, hind sight a wonderful thing.

Just look at some MCAP valuations on AIM. Then review ours at £490m. Zero debt, >£100m in cash sat in the bank. 80% margin. Millions £ International sales. NHS integration.

Being able to buy these sub £7 IMO a absolute steal. Holders will be rewarded. Sit on those hands if holding or fat thumb that buy button if you have funds.

There is a guy I follow that said it would hit this price back at £8.60, which I brought a lot more at. I rubbished him. Sub £500m MCAP no way.

Well eating (actually choking) on humble pie. Unbelievable. Basically valued now at PCR dead. No way am i giving mine away at this price, but hurts.

Here he is, been absent when climbing to double digits, now sniffs slight distress, & arrives back with a £5 estimates.

£350m MCAP with £100m cash in the current account = £250m total worth. Okay Ade, have a word. Just rattling the cage to get a cheap entry. That’s fair enough to get in cheap but don’t like your technique.

New targeted UK postcode testing looking at identifying the variants. Simultaneously we announce our new strain detecting assays. Would be confident to surmise that they are using ours.

This may not be mega bucks today, but think of the long term relationship we are building. 22bn tender being allocated this month. Got to be in a good place to have a decent slice of that mega cake. Matt, Witty & Graham having zooms no doubt (okay my imagination there).
But it’s been throughout > What do you need? We can do that.

NCYT always delivers. Welcome newcomers. LTH’s keeps our faith even through the most trying of times
GLA

Hello ARB people,
Completely new, just looking into the stock, but quick question;
Why does this site not show any chart data for this stock ? Not seen this before or is it me ?

Being clearly manipulated. Big top up @ £8.23 & then wow £7.99. Being drawn down to give entry to the funds.
Look at MCAP & remember over £1m in per day, with loads of new opportunities ahead.

Auction will drop to £9 & suck out all those SL’s, then can be transferred back to the informed sticky holders. Actually believe we may end the day blue

Name another company with this much margin, revenue vs P/E ratio, €100m cash & zero debt.

The savvy investors know. Be some games today from the pie in the sky dreamers. Great LTH. Goes down, I’ll top up.

Phase 2 could add the fireworks & land at anytime

Would agree T. Were my thoughts too. Gives a firm foundation to climb.

Let’s hope for good news & that your right. Anything beginning with a 3 would be great.
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