Adrian - I don't think I'm at the same level as TMT on posting but I'll take the comparison as a compliment. I just post honest opinion and try to keep my opinion and thoughts balanced.
It's unfortunate at the present time at the SP and for many holding GGP shares but I'm sure there's many holders of other AIM junior mining shares who are in the same boat.
It's not been a great year but the diffrrence for me is that GGP have a share in Havieron and other juniors maybe have possible future prospects but still lots of exploration to do.
Also we have a joint venture with a major, so we are well ahead of the pack. It is having Havieron that will help with the GGP SP recovery but IMO it will take a bit longer than many anticipated at the start of the year, but at least we have a target date (approx) to production; so if people want real value out of this share then they need to have patience and resilience until they get to the target price they want.
Lol, I do get where you're coming from regarding the comment about your wife, as I have some friends and probably my brother whose wives might not be so understanding. I think I'm quite lucky in that respect and fully appreciate the relationship my Wife and Myself have together.
Good luck all.
Tex - to be honest my Wife is not materialistic at all. Yes, she like nice things like posh restaurants and nice holidays/hotels but she's also happy with a bag of chips on a bench with a lovely view and a few days away in the UK in a cheap hotel.
Red - I posted many times over the months - ignore, filter or report the trolls, not sure many took it as advice.
Ruth - Sorry to hear about your Husband's past problems and hopefully he is much better now. yes, money is good as it gives you more choices in life but health is more important; no point in having lots of money if you can't enjoy it with ill health. Hopefully you both have a great future with health, and wealth from GGP comes your way soon. Best wishes to you and your husband for a Merry Christmas and prosperous New Year.
So here was me last night moaning to the wife about the SP and how much it has went down this year; of course she said we could have sold up in December/January - even February or March, and then at least we would have made some money, plus our kids would have made profit on their ISA's; Hindsight is a great thing.
I did say to her that we are victims of our own success but I also reminded her that when I invested her and the children's money then it would be 2-4, maybe 5 years for true value to come (the wife is 45, and 14 years younger than me).
Although I bought 114k shares in 2018, I never started buying more until May 2020, when the price was going up and up and it was clear there was great fundamentals with Havieron. When I moved my old works pensions over then I bought more in August to November and even a large chunk on the 18th January, 2 days before initial scally results.
The "victims of our own success" comment comes from the fact that actually since buying buying heavily from June 2020 onwards then all we really got was a meteoric rise to December. We never seen massive drops apart from maybe after the first few days/week after the first GDXJ buy-in. By that time we were up on paper anyway, so no matter the price fluctuations down then we were still sitting on profit, so why worry - and we bought more in the mid 20's up to the low 30's because the fundamentals at Havieron had not changed since we had been buying in the teens prices. So when the scally results came in and there was the massive sell off drop and then recovery we were still in profit, so why worry.
Fast forward to now and look where we are. In all my families investments then we are approx 50% down with me quite substantially in my SIPP - this is real money down and not in paper profits. Obviously I accept I'm an amateur share owner and should have maybe top sliced at some point; but again the fundamentals at Havieron had not changed, so why should I have worried, we were never massively down.
So at this point then I have to remember a comment from Rick Rule, I don't know the exact words - but at some point in your investment then you could be 50% down, but if it's a good share and you believe in the research and/or fundamentals then you hold it.
I believe in the fundamentals for Greatland and Havieron; the gold is still there and it will be coming out of the ground, so I'm holding on. If there is a buyout then there is nothing I can do except maybe vote for what I think is the best offer.
As my wife said last night - no point in worrying about it as it is what it is and you can't do anything about it unless you sell at a loss, if you believe in yourself and what you know, then it will come good in the next few years. She also reminded me of my great friend Kevin (of 23 years) who passed away in February with Covid. "At least at present you are alive and in reasonably good health, that's always more important than money"
sorry for the long post.
Seems like the frustration is starting to creep into the threads.
Everyone who is genuinely invested in this share is frustrated at the present time and quite understandably so. None of the PI's can explain exactly why we are here and in theory then it doesn't really make sense with the asset we have at Havieron, as it has only got bigger since last year.
The fundamentals from last year are actually better and we all know there is more news to come, especially the updated MRE. We all know when production is due to start and until then it will probably be a frustrating journey, but it is a long game and if you still believe in the fundamentals then you need to hold on for the journey.
It is what it is and if some of you remove the blinkers then you will see that the vast majority of juniors have taken a bashing this year. That includes two Canadian juniors and one Australian junior I'm invested in, so it's not just AIM listed juniors and it's just the way the market is working and of course due to global economics and the Covid Pandemic. We have a better asset than most of all the other juniors but if the sentiment and money is not in the metals exploration sector then nothing will really change until these two factors change or there is great news.
You either tough it out until we rise on better news, the sentiment and money comes back in or we get to production but you just need to keep the patience for the long game.
Unfortunately the board has went downhill; maybe a controlled move by a few trolls but let's be honest and say that some genuine members have also got drawn in by their tactics and let themselves get involved in petty squabbles with them which results in many posts/threads being deleted and many posters switching off from the board.
Yes, it can be argued that there has to be some pushback on misinformation and some posters respond well to this and answer constructively; but many of the threads just deteriorate in personal slanging matches and attacks which is not good reading.
As I'm invested in several shares then I do go onto to other boards but don't post on them, and I can say now that IMO then this board has probably the best overall knowledgeable people posting great information about GGP, NCM, mining, geo, etc. As my main investment is with GGP and actually felt like I had a good home here for the first 9-12 months after I joined LSE in June 2020. I am not overly technical but was posting some occasional bits of information I thought useful and provided feedback in threads I think that was reasonably balanced.
Occasionally I got drawn into troll threads and commented when I was suspicious of them and their motives, but realised I was only probably fueling their fire and keeping their posts at or near the top of the board, Hence I started creating threads for 'Ignoring the Trolls' - which went unheeded. Having been on quite a few other boards then it is much the same and they are littered will trolls spreading FUD and in reality it's just part of the boards and social media and life in general. No matter where you think or want success then there will always be people trying to knock you down.
Of course a good measured response if delivered in the right way can push back or silence the haters and actually it can make other genuine members be aware of them but when frustration enters the fray and the responses start to deteriorate into playground behaviour with name calling, etc then the valid argument starts to demise and it just puts other posters off reading or taking part in genuine debate.
It is quite obvious that the mood on the board is being affected by the slide in the SP, and personally I am now down a substantial amount on my actual investment - not a paper loss - really down in monetary terms, but I'm sure it will recover. I live with this unfortunate circumstance at this moment in time but I take full responsibility for it; I pressed the button to buy and I accept there is no one else to blame. Of course it's frustrating for me but there are many on this board in the same situation and down varying amounts of money, and I share your pain; but my frustration is mine to bear and I do not bring it to this board; I only ask that others should try to do the same and not bring their disappointment or frustration to the boards.
Although I've responded in this thread regarding a takeover I actually think there is too much conjecture and speculation about a takeover and when people start saying about lowball, cheap, etc then it's akin to spreading fear and doubt - IMO it's time for it to stop, as it's only bringing more depressing reading to the board.
Viking/Jerry, sorry to hear of the loss of your pets. Even though you know that you will generally outlast the life of a pet, you put your love into them and then it's always hard to accept the loss of a loved one; most of us have been through it, so your sense of loss and grief is understood.
Re: Option C
I'm sure I heard SD stating that Havieron is a world class asset. He has not put the vastly experienced board together to just roll over for an offer of Greatland, all of Havieron or even just the 5% NCM option. As Jiffy has said, at the present time no-one knows how much the 5% or 30% of Havieron is worth and I don't think a fair guestimate can be determined until at least after the updated MRE. Even then the MRE might not have taken in all of the drilling results for 6 weeks or a few months before release, so IMO any offer would have to take into account a reasonable amount of possible/probable future growth.
But lets not forget the 5% or 30% of Havieron includes all of the 12 blocks within the E45/4701 tenement, so this also includes any possible mineralisation finds at Zipa, Hav north and any other possible targets within the area. It could be that GGP will want to see what else NCM turns up with further exploration of these identified targets before agreeing to sell 5% or even the 30% (as some on here suggest). Also take into account 'every hole hits mineralisation' and 'open at depth' and sides', so how do you get to a sale price when you know the drill cores are providing results - even up to a few days - before you enter negotiations; IMO it's difficult to determine a figure when you actually still don't know the estimated full extent of mineralisation.
Taking this information into account then IMO it will be difficult to get an agreed figure for the 5% never mind 30% for the near future (at least next 3-4 months and after the updated MRE) but I do think that the agreement for the 5% option will come into play for Greatland to finance their share of the works at Havieron, so some price will have to be determined. As for the other 25% ? IMO then Greatland will not want to part with this as it's a company maker and if they do then it will not be cheap - in the $billions; but I also think NCM will be happy with their 70/75% knowing it will feed Telfer for years to come so therefore no need to spend $billions requiring an asset they already have the lions share of.
Any the other options are possible but I think SD, the board and shareholders will push back on any low ball offer, so any offer will have to look reasonably good before acceptance - 60+p for starters !!
Biggl - As you are a veritable fountain of knowledge and have expertise in Mining geology, ore calculations, costs etc then maybe on Monday you can call Sandeep Biswas and tell him that his expert employees and his company have got it wrong as Havieron is very uneconomical to mine, so they are wasting all that money drilling and building the mine infrastucture; and of course you can tell him by your calculations then it will cost $3098 per production ounce of gold.
I'm sure he'll listen and might be able to counteract your thinking; so could be worthwhile your time to make the call and gain some better knowledge on Havieron and why Newcrest, Greatland, Mining Experts et all think that it is a fantastic ore body and of course it will be a mine. Then when you have the full facts then maybe come back onto the board and give us a better informed opinion.
The telephone number for Newcrest is publicly available and you can find it here:- https://www.newcrest.com/contacts
I have never worried about an NCM buyout or that they a sneakily controlling the SP or actually oppressing the drilling results at Havieron to get a lowball 5% figure. They are the largest gold miners in Australia, a multi national business, work with the confines of ESG and under license to the WA/Aus government and work also with the permission of the Martu people. They are not up to any skullduggery and simply working away at Havieron to get the ore to Telfer asap and deliver value to their shareholders; there is no hidden agenda.
NCM need the Juniors to do the initial exploration across the vastness of tenements and they need to play fair in their relationships and in business. They are not out to pull juniors into JV's and then mug them off; because this would seriously affect their standing and respect with the mining community and would not bode well for any future JV's.
Biggl - I assume you will be reading this thread to gauge reaction; As a courtesy, then can you please answer my post I put to you a few weeks ago ?:-
Floater
Biggl - a simple question24 Nov 2021 22:59
Biggl - I'm not posting to get into any heated or technical discussion and I don't try to be or state I'm an expert at anything. I don't doubt you have some knowledge but I can't help notice your posting style seems quite fluent and quite well structured, grammatically; actually well prepared springs to mind. (not that I agree with any of it)
I see you have only been a member on the LSE boards for approx 8 weeks yet you post concisely with confidence which you generally don't get with newish type posters - newbies generally take some time to find their feet, yet you were highly confident from the first post. Also by some of your commentary then it would appear you are a seasoned investor; so did you come across the LSE boards by chance or actually have you been a previous LSE member and came back with a new account and name ?
(Obviously you are now a member for approx 10 weeks)
LoL, that's the thing with Freddie, he always thinks he's being attacked and then plays the 'woe is me' card to posters biggl, etc. The problem for people is that it's difficult to know what side of the fence he really sits on, although he'll insist he's actually sitting on the fence.
Freddie, good points for speculation, to comment on some:-
Regarding the SP then many juniors are down this year and in my opinion it's just global economies, market forces and sentiment. IMO then SD has done a good job but unfortunately up for judgement because of the SP but as with my first point above then it is tied in with those current parameters. I don't think it would be any different with GH and actually it would probably actually be regarded a great failure, by many.
Concentrating on the 5% aspect:-
MH01 - similar reply as me, but it's for the 12 blocks of within the E45/4701 tenement which includes Havieron, Zipa, Hav North and the other targets within that boundary - although the whole area is generally regarded as Havieron.
If NCM were want to be sneaky and try and get the 12 blocks at a low price then why would they be drilling other targets in the area to try and prove mineralisation exists close to Havieron, and also why would Fraser MacCorquodale be saying there could be other Havierons close to the original :- “This is all about (finding if there) are there more Havierons floating around Havieron,” https://www.australianresourcesandinvestment.com.au/2021/08/03/newcrest-looking-to-find-more-havierons-in-the-paterson/
Any other reasonable find within the 12 blocks would add value to the 5%. Also lets not forget that Havieron is still open at depth and at the sides, so the 5 % might not just be for what is known and may include an uplift for some assumptions of the open extent and the possibility of mineralisation at the other targets. NCM are experts are what they do, so they are not silly when it comes to exploration.
Taking into account that NCM work in the ESG framework (and of course there is also the 3/2 committee at Havieron), then I'm quite sure NCM are not going to be dishonest or have GGP over with results, etc; they do work within the ESG framework. Let's not forget Shaun has put together a formidable experienced team which is not just forward thinking to where he wants the company to go; it is also there to provide the expertise when working with NCM on the JV’s. Some people on here go on about NCM hiding drill results or playing it down at Hav – if unexperienced people on here can think that then do you not think the GGP board would also think that; and do people think they are not up to the task of assessing and analysing the results from NCM - really? Also, GGP do have 2 members of the 5-person management committee at Hav and NCM might be the overall managers at Havieron but GGP are no mugs.
So IMO the NCM and GGP will negotiate to a fair agreement for the 5% of the 12 blocks and it will not be a rushed decision, so should come after at least the MRE upgrade.
I've got to go out now so others can speculate on your other points.
Sharky- what's your problem. The main aspect of this thread is simply wishing people a happy St Andrew's Day.
Hoping for a good day for the SP is not ramping, and bringing up in this thread seems a bit petty !
Happy St Andrew's Day to all the Scottish contributors on the board. Hopefully it's a good day for you (us) and a good day for the GGP share price.
Apologies for off topic thread, but sometimes we just need some small things to cheer us up.
... and please note, it's a simple congratulations post so no political hijacking of the thread or posting warped views.
Hi Schlemiel, welcome back to the fold (although you probably have never left). Good luck with your re-investment and hopefully we start to see some movement in the next few weeks/months with upcoming drilling news and updated MRE.
SaS - Lol, I'm maybe a bit too old to be 'woke'. I did sort of counter and said I did accept it's a public forum and emotions can run high (implying that people will respond/react).
IMO that thread just disrupted the board all of yesterday evening/night; but at least the protagonists are gone (by reporting them) and hopefully it's a better day today.
Sandeep talking about ESG and value of gold, copper, and trust in partnerships and relationships:-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JDjJaJT-BhM&ab_channel=MineralsCouncilofAustralia
Credit due where it's merited and thanks to LSE Admin for removing the posts and posters disrupting the board last night and past few days. I have got to admit that I'm a tad disappointed that many LTH's got drawn into the disruption yesterday evening but I accept its a public forum and emotions can sometimes run high
IMO it's best just to report the offensive post(s) and ignore the posters.