Member Info for fatoomch

If you hold 500k or more and your broker permits it - you can do a direct broker to broker sale with Stifel at 6.5p

Cat - you've outed me - an IT Contractor :-)

However. over the past 3 year for CaPS:
2020 - £1.6M profit on £35M revenue
2019 - £1.5M profit on £24.5M revenue
2018 - £0.6M profit on £11.3M revenue

That's pretty low margins. CaPS and Marine (aka T&E) are the only positive contributors to the bottom line.

That's why I'll take the money now

Fair point on the house.
I don't disagree there is value - and SAG bid is opportune - but TPG have failed to extract/realise that value and put the company in a position where a bid could come in.
I can't see TPG achieving 6.5p on its own two feet anytime soon. The majority of revenue comes from consulting. Huge turnover, no profit. Small margins.

I would take @7p then hedge by purchasing SAG who in turn could realise any locked in TPG value.

At 6.5p. We know where those have gone.

No single insti held that specific number so will be interesting to see where they came from

OT - that's a good spot.

SAG seem to have thought many things through- including TPG selling off Marine and paying a special dividend in the interim. The SAG offer would be reduced accordingly.

Cat - I know you're also a long term holder and I can see where you're coming from but SAG aren't here to reimburse TPG shareholders nor line their pockets- that's what TPG should have done.

If the market price for a house was £500k - nobody would pay the owner £600k because that's what they bought it for.

OT - yep, that was me. 6.5p would still see a profit for me on those shares I bought yesterday. That's the name of the game, right

As a long term, eternally disappointed shareholder - an out now at @7p would represent a result.

flo - the TPG BoD don't need SAG to discredit them.

Your timescale and target for return obviously far exceeds mine. A bird in the hand etc

SAG are not obliged to provide information to the TPG BoD - but must provide that information to shareholders as part of an offer document.

OT - when didn't TPG paint a rosy picture. Lots of income - especially from consulting - but no profit. Only Marine turns a profit.

I think TPG stands for Turd Polishing Gang :-)
Maybe they should have bought glitter instead

BoD are impotent. SAG bypassed the FST BoD and went straight to shareholders with an improved offer.

Talk is cheap from McCree - shareholder value- blah blah blah. Far too little, far too late.

yes - link below clarifies - 6.5p

https://uk.practicallaw.thomsonreuters.com/7-107-6806?transitionType=Default&contextData=(sc.Default)

HI OT
fwiw - I think we'll see 6.5p on Monday morning

Cannacord hold 11.71%
SAG hold 17.9%

That would be 29.61 % by my reckoning

My interpretation of the takeover rules matches yours

between 10 and 30% - offer can be no lower than the highest price paid by the bidder

over 30% - offer can be no lower than the highest market price in the 12 months prior to the bid. That is 7.5p

I can't see SAG going above 30% and being nailed for an extra £5.4m

Radius - I posted the below on another board. I think SAG have all their ducks lined up to takeover TPG - whether there be the need for cash and/or cash and shares. They haven't just decided on a whim.

Value of Ruffer holding in SAG has increased from around £8m to £18m in the 2 years since SAG bought FST.
Value of Cannacord holding in SAG has increased from £12m to £29m in same 2 year period.
Imo - SAG have spoken with Ruffer and convinced them that by selling their TPG shares at 6.5p, SAG can further increase shareholder value for Ruffer as existing holders of SAG – as they have demonstrated with FST

My guess is that we’ll see an RNS notifying that Cannacord have also sold their TPG stake to SAG– having had the same conversation with the BOD of SAG. I’m guessing that will be at 6.5p. SAG will then be sat at 29.6%. Could be wrong, but think SAG are showing how to finesse a takeover – having had their ducks lined up before they played their first card.

Radius - it does seem to read that way.

Will be interesting to see the bid price on Monday morning. If it is SAG buying, as expected - then they will be the single biggest shareholder and, will have to offer 6.5p or more.

GLA

Thanks OT - every day's a school day.

FT article below interesting

https://www.ft.com/content/7eac54ee-f1d1-4ebc-9573-b52f87d00240

"...
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https://www.ft.com/content/7eac54ee-f1d1-4ebc-9573-b52f87d00240

producing green hydrogen via electrolysis is an extremely inefficient way of using renewable electricity. There is an immediate energy loss, to break the chemical bond between oxygen and hydrogen, of 30 per cent and there are further inefficiencies depending on how it is then deployed. 

“For most of the suggested uses of the green electricity-based hydrogen [at least] around half of the energy in the green electricity is lost,” says Jorgen Henningsen, senior adviser at the European Policy Centre, a think-tank. “Green electricity is a commodity [that will be] in short supply within Europe for many years to come?.?.?.?it doesn’t make sense from a climate policy point of view to waste half, or more, of the green electricity for producing hydrogen.”

Hi OT

There are no answers to my questions- it's all unknown.

As for creating hydrogen- anyone with access to water and power can do it. it's not Alchemy. So there is absolutely no barrier to entry

https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/news-and-insights/press-releases/bp-plans-uks-largest-hydrogen-project.html

Show me the money.
Niche market in the UK. Alstom ahead in Europe.
How much profit per TPG unit? How many units? When?

Look on linkedin at the background of the new CEO. Worked for a fencing company. A box making company. Digitisation of document company. A sail making company. Hardly inspiring. Look back further - raised funds for companies about to go under.

TPG has no product that they make that people want to buy - other than atmosphere control (Marine). They are minnows in many markets with no view of profit

Their key earner now is consultancy - providing consultants to help other companies succeed. Aka a recruitment agency.
Charge a consultant out at £700 per day, pay the consultant £500 per day. They can "sell" that as an order book of £175k (over 50 weeks) - but TPG cut is only £25k (minus expenses).

TPG aren't an ITM or AFC - there is no multi bagging technology. North* has competitors.

I'm really struggling to see where the shareholder value creation is going to come from - something that was finally paid lipservice to, almost by way of apology, in 2020 results.

£12m in debt - plus costs to get rid of PC and wasted costs on the Marine sale (btw - I think TPG put Marine up for sale, then pulled it when they didn't get what they wanted)

Been here 20 years - still waiting to see something that looks like turning a regular decent profit.

SAG have lowballed - can see that increasing - I'll be voting with SAG

7 - 8p according to who/what?

Cannacord and Ruffer are invested in both SAG and TPG.
If SAG can onboard those two, and given the huge disparity in shareholder returns, there would need to be something seriously astray if they couldn't, they would control 29.45% of TPG shares between them

Cannacord 11.71
SAG 10.20
Ruffer 7.54

The remainder (Killick, Barclays, iii) are all individual investor holdings

No wonder there's stony silence from the BOD at TPG. Nothing on social media at all.

TPG has been great on jumping on bandwagons and providing consultancy. They appear to have no unique, ground breaking technology.There is competition in all of the markets they are in and bar Marine, which is a well established market, they seem unable to turn a profit - over 10 years down the line. A company of well paid consultants Directors, and (ex) CEOs with no thought to shareholder value. They finally paid lip service to that in the last set of results. It's a cash cow for a large number of these guys who now need to depart and put the technologies in the hands of those who can turn a profit for shareholders. Something SAG have demonstrated they can do.
Take the good concepts - put them in the hands of people proven to be able to make them profitable pdq and not start as an afterthought ten years down the line.