RE: Paris19811 May 2022 10:51
Thanks beardozer.
There are a lot of possible permutations here, ranging from 'worst case' outright expropriation (without compensation)- unlikely IMO - through to 'full mine development' , by GLEN/ZIOC as originally envisaged in the IPO - equally unlikely, IMO, esp. given GLEN's known aversion to greenfield projects.
In between , you've got a cheap sale to a likely Chinese buyer (see 'monopsony', the opposite of 'monopoly'), where GLEN isn't able to get the side-benefit of a preferential deal for its ore trading arm ; to one where it IS (and doesn't cut ZIOC in in some way); to one where it IS and does; to a deal GLEN cuts with, say Fortescue Metals (Australian miner) that (a) doesn't (b) does include ZIOC in some way. There are AIUI 'tag-along' rights that - depending on how GLEN played things - could potentially be worth a lot......or nothing.....
Over-riding all this is what happens to (a) the global economy , (b) China's demand and (c) Simandou as a potential alternative supplier to Australia.
GLEN isn't emotionally or economically 'legacy-invested' (its accidentally-acquired stake in Zanaga is mostly written down), and ZIOC core investors mostly recouped their $ 30m or so seed / venture capital at the time of the IPO.
While I'd be delighted with a £2-3 per ZIOC share outcome, I think a likelihood-weighted outcome is more in the 50-100p range, with a not insignificant chance of total loss.
Happy to be corrected....and open to counter-arguments, positive or negative !