Member Info for extrader

This is a useful IMO overview of what VeChain actually does

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/vechain.asp

It seems , to this lay-person, to be a one-stop shop for many of the enabling tech features (IoT, RFD, blockchain, NFT, etc ) that SYME planned/plans to incorporate into its own offering.....and that the Foundation is willing to provide a bit of 'seed capital' - $ 1.5 mn - to establish 'proof of concept'.
This is small beer relative to the $$$s of potential customers looking to be on-boarded, how many will now want any outstanding DD payments refunded, if IM funding is only progressing at this rate ?
The AGM promises to be 'eventful'.

.." the contract revenue has doubled for comparable work.."

Is there anything in the public domain to suggest that the work is comparable ? The argument seems to be that ORPH has a large , fixed cost base (ie break-even) and that more efficient/optimised use of its facilities etc is what has contributed to improved margins.

Time will / may tell...

.."Why do you keep suggesting differently?.."

I don't KEEP suggesting differently : I just observe that ORPH doesn't appear to have much of a 'moat' ( reflected in pricing power).
Your reference is to contract size , as opposed to profitability. Why have you changed the basis of the discussion ?

You could well be right :I asked a question about how long it would take to have the 'brew' ready and there was a shuffling of feet and a pretty evasive answer.

You'd think that if it was that difficult , there'd at least be the consolation of a premium price to extract on the finished product....but judging by the margins we earn, it ain't so.

I have to say that the dependency on 3 or 4 key clients for the bulk of ORPH's revenue - as revealed in the latest financials - was a nasty surprise for me : I don't think it has that much pricing power, hence the poor margins...?

Unfortunately, this is 'old news' : I'm a member of the focus group that discussed the ethical aspects of the first human challenge study (now completed, using Wuhan strain), this is a follow-on about the eventual/possible use of Delta on already vaccinated....

I've just received (a couple of days ago) from NIHR HIC-VAC my copy of the discussion notes we had back in January on this, relevant extract :

.."Public Involvement Zoom Call on 27.01.2022: Human Challenge with Coronavirus Study with Delta Variant

Summary report of a public discussion on the results of the first human challenge study with coronavirus and the benefits and risks of a human challenge study with coronavirus (with the Delta variant) taking place in the UK...."

The pace is frustratingly glacial, IMO and in the opinion of a lot of my disenchanted fellow focus group members.

Ho hum.

.."what's your onist opinion knowing what you know now would you still put money in Or are you still doing ?or too much under water to jump ship.."

If I weren't already invested, I'd probably buy now...as even more of a binary bet than it was when I got in, at an avge after top-slicing of about 6p.
ZIOC has always been at the 'mad money' end of my portfolio and is now effectively written off : I like the idea, so if we do end up de-listing, I may -depending on circs - just stay in anyway, to see what happens.

The passage of time increases the opportunity cost (assuming I switched into something better, not always a given) )...and increases my scepticism about just how benighted Congo is : it deserves to be a 'cause' taken up by some do-gooders and get its governance in order.

I worked in ****stan for 3 years and learned, to my surprise, that in the mid 60's , it, Kenya and South Korea were all at similar levels of GDP and - get this - that the World Bank paid for a group of S Koreans to travel to ****stan , to learn from them how to transition from an agricultural to an industrial society. I kid you not : the ****stani textile industry (recycled from the North and Midlands of UK) was then a great beacon of hope and an example to others.

Fast forward a half century and S Korea is probably ahead of us, whilst ****stan and Kenya languish as semi 'failed states' that have betrayed their peoples.

OTOH, one of my other 'mad money ' shares was ASOS, where I bought 100,000 @ 5.9 p....they peaked about £ 75, unfortunately/fortunately I sold out regularly on the way up, letting the (withdrawal of taper relief) tax change wag the investment dog...still my best ever share , at about 30x return.

As the motto has it : 'dum spiro, spero' - while I breathe , there's hope....

HTH, NAI, IMO, DYOR etc etc

It's the weekend, so I'll bite ! ;->

Not sure that it's relevant, but I made a bundle on Nigerian Par Brady bonds. These yielded 6.25% pa (a respectable yield at the time) but traded at 40c in the $ because of concerns re possible default.

Somebody shared with me that the default risk was more apparent than real, because wealthy = influential Nigerians had bought up a lot of the paper on the secondary market...making this paper a priority for repayment.

So for several years I was getting 15.625% interest on an investment bought at 40 c in the $ and sold a few years later at 70c in the $.

Alas ! my more conventional African investments haven't delivered anything similar.

".....Unfortunately they are to busy paying billions in fines!,, could have developed zanaga alone with these eye watering amounts...."

(1) You've no idea how much of GLEN's achieved business in the past decade or two resulted from bribes.
(2) You've no idea how much Zanaga may (have) require(d) in bribes to 'develop' Zanaga.

Now, if instead of 'bribes' you'd said 'effort', I think the point would be less arguable.

;->

AZ shouted the generality of the news, not the materiality : an NDA would normally apply to the identity of the counterparty, not to the (by definition) anonymous numbers....

.." we are no longer a concept but a working model generating revenue - it’s that simple :).."

If that were the case, can you think of any reason why - particularly at this rather important moment (upcoming AGM and associated matters) - AZ would not want to shout the news /detail from the rooftops ?

I suggest it's not that simple, actually.

;-<

An 'E-warrant' is probably just an electronic - as opposed to paper - warrant........
Occam's razor and all that.

IMO

This is a Reach RNS :

Reach is an investor communication service aimed at assisting listed and unlisted companies to deliver NON-REGULATORY NEWS [my bold] such as marketing messages, corporate and product information.

In essence .."USD TradeFlow Fund SP received the authenticated warehouse E-Warrants for the coffee inventory digitally. ..", in other words replaced an historic paper-based system with blockchain technology.

The relevant para tells us that (a) this was issued as being the first transaction (not because it's of material value) and that (b) SYME will only issue RNS's henceforth if the transaction (s) have a meaningful financial impact :

.."The Company has issued an RNS Reach announcement on this occasion to confirm the completion of the first transaction under the partnership. As the Board expects the first transaction under the partnership to pave the way for a significant number of transactions in the future, the Company will inform the market of any future transactions under the partnership ONLY [my caps] if they stand to significantly impact SYME's financial performance..."

This is incremental progress, for sure, but hardly the gamechanger that it's being presented as, IMO.

I'm not sure which is more irritating : moniman being unremittingly negative...or moniman being unremittingly positive - my take is that there's a mix of good and bad about ORPH and only time/circs will determine which prevail.

In the meantime, minute-by-minute commentary and updates aren't adding value.

IMO.

No apology sought....or expected.

"... if I were in your shoes, I'd ask SYME to provide independent evidence for me , as a concerned shareholder.
Have you/has anyone done that ? If not , why not ? Do you think - esp based on SYME/AZ's now extensive track record of overpromising and under-delivering, that it MIGHT be worth being a little less credulous ?...."

Good luck with ALL your investment decisions - on the basis of your (considered) reply, I'm guessing you'll need it.

Burnley1882,

Objectively, AZ is lying. How many times do you have to hear him say verbally or in print that X will happen by Y date and then see that it doesn't come to pass; or that deal terms evolve or aren't disclosed forthrightly.

You can be mealy-mouthed and say that it's his English; it's his 'exuberance and enthusiasm'; that he 'overpromises and under-delivers'; that he's 'economical with the actualite'; lots of CEO's do that....if you've experienced it , would you automatically trust anything they said going forward .....or would your first reaction be to question it ? I hope so - taking anything these people say at face value would be a quick route to the poor-house.

Could SYME be a scam ? It's certainly a possibility : there are a long list of actions and choices that SYME has taken that haven't turned out to be 'investor-friendly' : Prospectus terms; absence of Nomad; restatement of accounts; shifting of accounting year end; repeated failure to 'deliver' as promised; shares loaned; opaque shareholdings; Parzival intro fee; ambiguity and opacity over TF deal terms, etc etc. And ask yourself, who has benefitted from this litany of mistakes ? It certainly hasn't been the PI's , has it ?

There's a category of problem credit that bankers describe as ' honest but unfortunate', recognising that 'stuff happens'.

Maybe that's the case here, maybe not.
Time will tell.

HTH

Hi Phoenix UK,

I'm surprised that you're unaware that it's unusual to ask someone to prove a negative : eg " prove to me that you haven't cheated on your partner'...how would one do that ?

The sequence we have here is :
(1) People say that SYME has dealings with Quadrivio (Captive bank etc) on the basis of an RNS;
(2) I argue that that's unlikely, on the basis of (a) what Quadrivio has said on this specific issue (ie nothing, in 2 years), which is highly unusual, cf DPWorld's announcements on THEIR deal with TF, that everyone loves to quote; and that furthermore (b) the deal doesn't fit in with the use that Quadrivio have put the named vehicle ('Industry 4.0') to, over the same 2 years...and the rate at which they've been able to attract investors for the investments they've made so far.
I've provided links to the Fund and to a relevant interview with one of Quadrivio's principals;
(3) The convention in grown up discussion is that you now provide evidence that supports YOUR view of events, which should be easy enough to find eg a press article from Quadrivio, a 3rd party reference to this deal (lawyer, regulatory body, business article). Failing that, if I were in your shoes, I'd ask SYME to provide independent evidence for me , as a concerned shareholder.

Have you/has anyone done that ? If not , why not ? Do you think - esp based on SYME/AZ's now extensive track record of overpromising and under-delivering, that it MIGHT be worth being a little less credulous ?

'Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me'.....

HTH. The ball is in your court.

PS here's the Industry 4.0 fund
https://www.quadriviogroup.com/en/funds/industry-4-0-fund

and here's the interview talking about funding

.."The DG of Quadrivio (one of the impressive CV's you list) is quoted Nov 2020 as saying that Industry 4.0 hopes to achieve financial close on a Euro 300m fundraise that began in 2018, 'sometime in H2 2021'.

.."Industry 4.0 was launched with a €300m target in January 2018 and held a €100m first close in October 2018. Its final close is expected in the second half of 2021, the GP told Unquote. The fund invests in SMEs operating in the manufacturing industry, with high potential to grow further via digitalisation and automation, and able to generate annual revenues of €50-150m..."

https://www.unquote.com/southern-europe/research/3021649/q4-fundraising-pipeline-italy.."

Note : 'Manufacturing sector' - may be a clue as to why the fund is called Industry 4.0 ??

'Knock yourself out'.

.." Could you perhaps show some evidence for your belief other than Quadrivio have never mentioned Syme..."

Go to Quadrivio's website and look at the details re Industry 4.0 fund, SYME's proposed partner in the 'captive bank'.
In the last 3 years , the fund has financed a small catering business, two small textile businesses , an online/store for sports apparel and a plastic parts manufacturer for industrial vehicles.

None an obvious basis for running a bank.

There is also an interview from Quadrivio in which they acknowledge that their fundraising for Industry 4.0 is a 'work in progress', hoping to raise a couple of hundred million Euro.

Finally, when was the last time you heard any mention of progress on the regulatory consents and approvals for the acquisition of the (failed) bank that was going to be the basis of the business.

Feel free to come back with any equivalent counter-arguments, other (please), than 'SYME says'...

IMO

Quadrivio has NO relationship with SYME.
Quoting AZ to confirm something AZ/ SYME has said in an RNS isn’t ‘proof’, you do understand that ?

Show something - if you can - that Mr Crapelli or anyone else from Quadrivio has EVER said, acknowledging even that SYME exists, never mind that there’s a relationship : 18 months on, there’s NOTHING out there.

I invite you to refute...or retract.

TIA

.."if I have misunderstood your post perhaps you could explain what you mean by “ingenuity of the concept”. The same concept that you have spent 2 years claiming is unworkable, if true hardly clever..."

You've misunderstood : I'm using 'ingenuity of the concept' in the sense of a 'Heath Robinson ' approach, or 'Heath Robinsonesque' :

- Heath Robinson approach : used to describe a machine that is very cleverly made and is complicated in a silly or humorous way, but has no practical use.
Or, more generously, synonymous with any overly complicated device designed to execute the simplest of tasks, and which no one in his right mind would ever actually consider building or using—but which, for all that, really could work (probably), although only with an unwarranted investment of labour.

-Heath Robinsonesque : Heath Robinson-esque is to describe an invention or machine that is simultaneously ingenious, overly-complicated and makeshift.

Does this sound familiar ?

HTH

PS It was YOU that used the description 'swindle' , not me, so if anything it's YOUR suggestion that AZ is a 'criminal mastermind', not mine.