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Forgot maybe the most important bit : how each of these would be viewed by GLEN....

Why not brainstorm who the other 'runners and riders' might be?

(1) FMG ? Unlikely to run 2 new investments in 2 new countries in parallel, I'd have thought.
(2) The Chinese ? Some headstart from COIDIC and subsequent BaoWu interest; some other experience of infrastructure investments (dams, etc) and C-B position re SEZ sovereignty.
(3) BHP ? Supposedly not keen on jurisdiction, but has iron-ore interests to defend/protect ...and is quite big in potash (cf. Kore Potash/KP2, maybe some wrap-up there?). IIRC has exited/is exiting Guinea (Nimba) , its interest there being taken by Robert Friedland/HPX.
(4)RTZ ? Already in Guinea (Simandou underway, in Chinese/Singapore consortium) AND bauxite (established : Govt 49%/ Alcoa (45), BHP (45), German?Dadco(10) 51%). Appetite/commercial pressure for more quality ore?
(5) Vale ? With or without its Samarco partner BHP. Ore quality pressure ? Maybe some offsetting deal re potash (Brazil big importer). Logistical/distance benefits.
(6) Vedanta ? Supposedly developing a mine in Liberia. One of the few companies mentioned on ZIOC's twitter feed, FWLIW (2 x follows) + an Indian-run Aussie co Atlas Iron (Gina Han****'s baby). Maybe an 'Indian mafia' deal, esp with
(7) Arcelor Mittal ? Largest steel manufacturer in N and S America + Europe, keen on high-quality ESG product..
(8) Rusal ? Long shot, but interested in increasing influence in Africa, counterweight to Chinese, etc. Also flwd by ZIOC twitter....

Just a 'brain dumpo' on a slow day at work...
NAI, DYOR etc etc
Any other suggestions?

There may well be lights on, it's an accommodation/brass plate address for lots of companies [including Gazprom Int'l, so some big names].
See https://www.loopnet.co.uk/Listing/27-28-Eastcastle-St-London/21603353/

One of the tenants leasing is MSP Corporate Services Ltd, which is /was SYME's company secretary at time of RTO/IPO.

HTH

.."just jumping on a bandwagon when it suits them and trashing companies a year or so later..."

You've been a little inconsistent yourself in your attitude to HVO/POLB, I seem to recall.
Pot, kettle, black?

Hi Mitch984,

(1) Guinea's economy is in better shape than C-B, per https://countryeconomy.com/countries/compare/guinea/congo, eg debt: $ 6.8Bn vs $ 13.1Bn; debt-to-GDP 42% vs 104%; debt per capita $510 vs $ 2,316;

(2) It appears to be a little less corrupt- rank 147 vs 166 ('every little helps');

(3) Guinea has a track record : the world's largest resource of bauxite and is already exploiting it, mostly with the Chinese (who produce 60% of the world's aluminium). Guinea is now #2 producer @82mtpa, Aus is #1 @ 110mtpa, China #3 supplemented its own production 75mtpa. Global production 2021 was 390mtpa.
See https://min-met.com/blog/bright-future-for-bauxite-industry-in-guinea/
So it has an existing working relationship at scale (it has ramped up successfully, suggesting relative stability of business environment) and is pretty firmly in Chinese pockets, I would say.

Also, its bauxite is premium quality compared to Australia's (so a repeat of the iron-ore situation) and China's dependency on Guinea is increasing, as it's cheaper than domestic ore and many high-temperature alumina refineries are converting into low temperature mainly based on Guinea bauxite.

(4) Interestingly, the consortium approach proposed for Simandou ('safety in numbers' ?) has been used in a number of existing or proposed mines that have attracted investors from China, Russia, Singapore, Abu Dhabi et al.

So maybe we'll see a consortium approach,if/when egos and nationalism can be set aside....? [ Worth noting that GLEN has covered that possibility in its Offtake Agreement, AFAICS]

IMO + HTH

Almost 2/3rds of China's iron ore comes from Australia [ more than it sources from Brazil, South Africa and India combined], about 80% of Australia's iron ore exports go TO China. Its proximity to China [ one selling point] may not apply to other potential buyers further afield.
The role of coal in steel production is another area where the 2 are 'wedded at the hip'.
Australia's ore has been attractive up to now as relatively high quality[hematite] and reliable. If/when China is serious about pollution, the former will play to Africa's strengths; Africa is currently low on the 'reliability' index, but Australia may be losing ground on that front, too, as political differences become more acute [think 5 Eyes, South China Seas, the latest 'balloon' kerfuffle).
So : lots of moving parts, hopefully some at least moving in Zanaga/ZIOC's favour.

AFAICS

I'm with atg,

MM's unbridled enthusiasm is welcome..in small doses. A bit like the Alastair Campbell school of journalism: regardless of the substance, it sprinkles a little stardust and livens an otherwise dull day.
IMO
ATB

...", you will wait very long time for that.."

We could wait a week ....or a year....or forever.
IF - thought experiment - something were to happen next week, what price your chart prediction then?

We'd probably get 'informed buying' in the intervening few days, which would change the chart outlook, but AS OF NOW it has zero predictive value...

IMO

Well, he may be part of the P + D cohort, but they have their uses : occasionally(perhaps unintentionally) providing info- as Veteran 10 suggests - and contributing to liquidity.....

'If a tree falls in a forest and makes no sound...' etc

Yes. The commentator refs GSK, Pfizer and Moderna all as coming out with RSV products and expected to take the lion's share.
This may well be so. But if the various side-effect issues with MRNA vaccines that are surfacing come to a head, the latter 2 may be distracted by some fire-fighting...which might work to POLB's advantage, on RSV and indeed elsewhere.

AIUI

Thanks.
Interesting, maybe, to note that HVO is the ONLY one of the 9 recommendations whose author has backed their judgment by actually investing in it!

Ho hum.

Thanks, Matt. @ 4:00 mins in.

I hope Zanaga doesn't miss out on this new ' scramble for Africa' !

-Simandou looks as though it's going ahead, despite immense logistical issues;

- Belinga is still 'early doors', but ties up FMG ('Twiggy' Forrest was one of AT's possible 'runners') and - via the AbuDhabi minority partner African Transformation and Investment Fund - Arise , the recent arrival on scene (PN SEZ 'talks') ; and appears to have reasonable existing transport links;

- Zanaga seems to be between both ....but if RTZ (Simandou) and now FMG (Belinga) are starting a bit of Aussie pushback, maybe the Chinese will want to snaffle up Zanaga, before A.N.Other , either Aussie or elsewhere (Vedanta? Vale?) does.

I wonder what our director Clinton Dines (former head of BHP Billiton China) is up to these days?

Interesting times!
-

The continental shelf off Pointe Noire shelves much more than offshore Guinea, where apart from the initial work there'll be an ongoing dredging requirement.....all this per Elphick. So , no natural deepwater port.

This has commercial and strategic (think military) implications, which may eventually tilt the balance away from 'one-horse- dependency.

Time will tell.

Not clear what the reference to 11p is about.
Mo 's maiden purchase of 510K was at 9.8p, not far above the 12 month low of 9.2, so he's doing nicely on those. As is JS over at POLB on his maiden purchase of 718K shares @ 4.8p, again near the 52 week low of 4.1.
It is what it is.
Mo's LTIP at least has 'some' visibility...and granting an in-the-money 'LTIP' now rather than a plain vanilla bonus may be more tax efficient.
The cynic in me notes that, intentionally or otherwise, it seems to align his timeframe more closely with what I understand CF's to be - turnaround and 'flip'.

GLA

From the RNS

Vesting of the LTIP Options is conditional upon a three-year total shareholder return ("TSR") performance against an initial 11p reference price.

Any dividend paid will count towards TSR. And maybe proceeds of any spin-off as well…

Again, AFAICS

If it’s annual gr of 22.5% from a base of 11p and a deemed date of award of Feb 2022, surely it’s nearer 20.2p by Feb 2025?

11 x 1.225x 1.225x 1.225…..

AFAICS

She shows HVO's s/p in £, not p....I wish!
A little bit sloppy, though....

Hi Theanalyzer,
Thanks for clarifying ! So, ref to assuring 'the bank signing off' was just a typo ?
Cheers