Member Info for extrader

You'll see from the Vale thread of a few days back that I'm fully in the 'dedollarisation/into tangibles' camp - and quoted the relevant Saudi and Chinese USD treasury holdings.
Doesn't mean that there can't be externalities that - whilst objectively not relevant - still contribute to choppy waters.

'Steady the buffs !'
ATB

Hi Driving,
Hope your right re Zanaga, the macro outlook isn't looking too good.

The guy I said I followed for sentiment, Jared Dillian, thinks it's tin hat time, here's a flavour
.."I was flying yesterday and saw the regional bank meltdown. With Western Alliance and such. I think as of yesterday we officially have contagion.
I didn’t think we would get it, but we got it. Contagion continues until the Fed steps in. The events of the last two days have made today’s FOMC even more important. If they don’t make soft soothing noises in the directive today, it is going to be ugly. By this point the Fed has broken a whole bunch of things. The gilt market, and a lot of regional banks. Are they this obtuse? Yes, yes they are. Plus, did you see that job openings data? Wow. The labor market is cooling off in a hurry. We are going to have a recession, and it is going to be worse than I thought. ...."

Jared's honest enough to have posted when he's got a call wrong in the past, I hope he's wrong this time.
Let's see what happens.

ATB, GLA and NAI

Interesting snippet from today's RNS :

.."The SRT-MDA System's advanced Dynamic-Ai enables it to automatically detect and alert the Coast Guard to illegal maritime activities such as smuggling, unlicensed fishing, maritime border incursions, AND POTENTIAL THREATS TO CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE SUCH AS UNDERSEA PIPELINES...."

A whole new 'addressable' market, potentially, and not just in tough neighbourhoods, as recent events show.

Hi Driving1,
No probs….and agree, a great price/ holding.
Also agree your comment that sentiment matters : I follow Jared Dillian of the Mauldin stable for that reason.
I keep a vague eye on GEMD as Elphick’s other vehicle, which I think you also have views on (in your former guise). Apols to others for o/t, but it seems ‘the trend is not his friend’, atm.

ATB

Hi atg

Thanks for the KRPZ note, I’d forgotten it’s there alongside KP2 as another C-B mining play ‘on the cusp’ of greatness…
What has the Nomad said about the recent, quite specific press article that prompted the latest flurry? Or the company, for that matter? They usually have to be warned by said Nomad for over- disclosure, ‘false markets’ , etc, but so far zilch as far as I can see on a quick look….
Happy to continue any exchange on the KRPZ board, btw.
TIA

The Pro Trader’s comments, like the poster himself, have all disappeared into the electronic ether. It’s as though he never was.
His last comments were apparently around 14 Feb.
Driving 1’s post history starts 20 Feb 2023, another poster ‘Driving’ has been posting since Sept 2013, claimed a holding of 4m ZIOC @ 14 Feb and last posted on 19th Feb.

Support, it would seem, for the Spanish saying ‘ el mundo es un pañuelo’ - ‘ the world is [the size of] a handkerchief.

Ho hum.

Hi shaun86,
Most of the risks I cite continue to apply, albeit at lower scale.
Meanwhile, our investor will be willing to put up less for equity, asking us (presumably) to take more tailrisk.
I’m of an age and mindset where I’m conscious of the time value of money and that more time exposure = more unforeseeable risk.
In other words, reverse of the old bull/ young bull exchange when contemplating a herd of heifers ;->

Very generous atg, sentiments reciprocated!

Incidentally, I wouldn't be too quick to rule out nonState players.
I hold Burford BUR which is financing the Ascent Resources (?) litigation agst C-B for alleged illicit concession expropriation (claim for damages $ 11.5billion). It's a shot across the bows for DSN and co.
BUR has just won a case agst Argentina for its illicit YPF expropriation, wirh an NY based multi billion $ award.
Not overly similar circs, but it might give DSN and his advisers pause for thought ....I wonder incidentally whether DSK (Strauss-Kahn, the disgraced former IMF CEO) is still DSN's adviser ?
Cooler / wiser heads may yet prevail...
ATB and GLA

I have a judgmental opinion about C-B country risk, based on international ' ease of doing business' and ' transparency/corruption' indices; Pandora papers disclosures re DSN , DSN Jr. and DSN wider family; track record in-country of asset expropriation (currently being litigated);and 'lived experience' of attitudes in Abu Dhabi and wider UAE, Egypt, Iran and ****stan to what we quaintly think of as the 'rule of law'.
I take your point re arguably excessive application of appropriate discount rate, I think many here are seriously underweighting the country risk discount.
I doubt whether any potential buyers will be so charitable.
Can I quantify the discount? No.
That doesn't mean we should blithely ignore it.
Better to err on the conservative side ....and, hopefully, be pleasantly surprised.
Our best hope is multiple bidders and an 'excess of enthusiasm' : the bigger the honeypot, the more bears there should be circling. But the greater the price of DSN's blessing.
IMO, AIUI, AFAICS, DYOR , etc etc

Hi atg

I think you’re missing the overall picture that no cash will be generated under any scenario for a long time and the amount any buyer will pay us will reflect this. With a considerable safety margin on their side for ‘known unknowns.

Put yourself on the other side of the trade….

Hope this explains where I’m coming from.
ATB

We’re getting a bit ahead of ourselves here, surely?
The new mineral port, per Halcrow (good name, btw, IMO), will take 54 months aka 4 1/2 years to become operational.
Sure, people can import kit for Zanaga through existing (cough!) channels, but there’s also power and slurry pipeline (?) to commission, plus no doubt lots of other ‘stuff’ to integrate/ co-ordinate.
All of which needs to be up and running before 1st material exports in min 41/2 yrs’ time.
There’s political risk, macro and local, price risk, commissioning/ co-ordination risk, timerisk, etc etc.
I don’t see anyone shelling out £5 for Zanaga (£3 billion) up front, or anywhere near that, esp. b4 you factor in capex.
Maybe as a total return ( buyout price + discounted value of x years’ dividends).

Of course, I’d be delighted to be proved wrong - and unduly Eeyore-ish : there’s a first time for everything….!

ATB… and GLA

Thanks, 99 icecream
Who commissioned this project conception, pls?
TIA
PS I like the emphasis on ore + potash (the more users the merrier).....and that new boys Arise are AbuDhabi-based...

Mildly interested that the parallel (?) KP2 potash project is neither shaken nor stirred....
;-> / ;-<

Hi atg
Not vague in sense of party involved ( after all, principal involved named, investment of $600.m ties in with feas. study) but vague in sense that it's just words....
'Been there, done that...'
;->

Kropz KRPZ. has tripled today on vague news that it's going ahead with its C-B phosphate project...
NAI, no position.

.."Which implies that at least (6.9 / 2.5) x 30 = 83 Million Tonnes per annum would be possible..."

Or that the resource is sufficient for 83 years at 30mtpa....?
AFAICS

US treasury holdings : Saudi $ 120 bn, PRC $ 860 bn...

Everything that MM has said about Saudi incentive to de-dollarize in favour of ‘hard assets’ because of its vulnerable USD Treasury holdings applies “with bells on” to China, of course….

Interesting times.
Ho hum.

A couple of other 'soft' arguments for Vale : Brazil has cultural understanding of Africa via the Portuguese connection: think Angola, Mozambique and Cabinda (the enclave adjacent C-B) near where the PN SEZ was extended as location for the new Chinese refinery...
And the 'multiplier effect' from C-B perspective of sending KorePotash production a short hop across the Atlantic to the mahoosive Brazilian agricultural sector...
And a third: Vale would be south- south, amongst non-aligned countries ie not beholden to any/ either of the existing global camps...
AFAICS

As I said at the time, re

..’ These will be ones that are strategic for Glencore, where Glencore has some sort of strategic advantage, whether it be because we are — have existing shareholding, whether we have existing partnerships with the current owners,” Nagle said. ..’

..I wouldn’t mind knowing what Gary was about to say …before he corrected himself.
IMO