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Hi Driving,

Your 12:52

I see we just held 12p...does that support your thesis ?

TIA

As MM's AlKhorayef quote - and my earlier comment - show, there may well be a South - South dimension, the ZIOC transaction just being part of a bigger shift of investment focus and reshuffling of trade relations.

South Africa is hosting the next BRICS summit in August 2023. It's spiced up by the souring of relations between 'R' and 'C' and the Western camp, led by the US and dominated by the USD; several countries want to join BRICS.

Algeria, Argentina, Bahrain, Egypt , Indonesia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates have formally applied to join.

On the agenda is the launch of a new currency * to settle global trade, likely backed by 'hard' assets, maybe gold (which China and Russia have both been hoarding) or similar.

* China is pushing the Petroyuan, with Russia's support.

https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2023/04/04/the-de-dollarization-of-world-economy-xi-putin-agreement-saudi-arabias-shift-to-yuan/

Joining BRICS, Saudi and the UAE would have another connection to Brazil... the political wish to show ' early wins'. If we're talking food and agriculture, there's Congo phosphate and potash available and closer than any other supplier.

Another BRICS candidate is Argentina (which you might think of as an earlier Congo : vast agricultural and mineral resources , it took foreigners (the Brits) to sort out the infrastructure and make Argentina a (captive) exporting power-house in the 19th C), also looking to join BRICS.

China is keen to wean them off the American teat https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-02/china-allows-argentina-to-spend-up-to-10-billion-of-swap-line.

Lots going on in the next few months, with potentially major re-alignments.

And all of this needs logistics and ports.

Which is kind of where we started.

'Interesting times, for sure'!

Argentina is

There may be a another reason he hitched a ride, of course...

https://humanglemedia.com/former-minister-talks-of-businessman-who-seized-congo-presidential-plane/

A couple of years back, Nguesso's Falcon was seized in Toulouse (there for maintenance) , when another detective used FlightRadar and the pilot had inadvertently left his AIS on...

Not sure of its whereabouts, but the disgruntled creditor is still at large.

These people - OGM Oasis Crescent Global Equity - S Africa, with 2.6m shares bought around Feb 28 per s'pedia, might be deemed 'informed', at a guess.

Everitt appears to have kept his 17.9m, Higgins scaled back from 14.1m to 4.5m, both as reported 6/2022.

Turnover so far is barely 2 million , out of 600m. Granted, the free float (subtracting GLEN, Elphick, Keith Everitt and other mates) is probably 'only' 120-150m, but still

This is - so far - very much 'at the margin' stuff. You'd expect bigger volumes, from people either in the know or making educated guesses, surely?

Not complaining ;->

Hi Aberdeenman,

I spent a fair time in the Gulf, also.

The caveat to your observation re social stratification is that - in some respects- it's a meritocracy within an aristocracy, where leaders are chosen from with the AlSaud lineage.

MBS, was considered a bit of a bumpkin by his more sophisticated, Western educated potential rivals to power. They're not laughing now.

And - addressing the racial hierarchy issue - this guy (son of an African slave) did OK, Bandar Bin Sultan

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bandar_bin_Sultan_Al_Saud

'Long ago...and far away...'

ATB

Worth noting :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bandar_Alkhorayef

Although Bandar is Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources, his background is agriculture (BA in International Agriculture) and his family business AI Alkhorayef Sons Co is / got its start in the 1950's in domestic agriculture .

They were agents for Valmont centre-pivot irrigation systems and Volvo Penta pumps, used for the famous/infamous 'crop circles in the desert' that Saudi promoted when it was concerned about domestic food security.

That side of the business has scaled down, but the family also has a fair-sized petroleum services business, with 11 overseas offices.... including a presence in Pointe Noire, of all places.

https://www.alkhorayefpetroleum.com/About-us.aspx#map

It seems to me that, if we are part of a wider opening up of Congo, Bandar is well-placed to provide informed advice.

GLA

Well done, MM !

After so many false dawns, this time it looks like the real thing.

For PIF to move into pole position (because of Vale's Inco stake), the Canadians had to climb down, as they did last month https://www.reuters.com/world/canada-saudi-arabia-appoint-new-ambassadors-end-2018-dispute-2023-05-24/

having seen OPEC diss Biden just in time for the start of the politically-sensitive US holiday driving season

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/apr/03/oil-price-surges-after-surprise-opec-production-cut

Money talks !

Your posting history TLOU > GLR > ZIOC and contribution tells me all I need to know.

As Ram Dass says ' let's all walk home together'.

ATB

Advfn reported a few trades at 12 around 15:15...

Https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poseidon_bubble

Probably a unique set of of circumstances (VietNam war shortage and industrial production problems) , and a scarcer resource, but still...

.."In September 1969, the mineral exploration company Poseidon NL made a major nickel discovery at Mount Windarra 22 kilometres (14 mi) northwest of Laverton, Western Australia. In early September its shares, which had been trading at $0.80, began rising on insider trading (which was not illegal at the time). On 1 October, Poseidon announced that drilling had struck 40 metres of ore averaging 3.56% nickel and the share price immediately rose until Poseidon shares were trading at $12.30. After that, very little further information came to light but the price continued to climb on speculation. At one point, a UK broker suggested a value of up to $382 a share.

From October to December 1969 the ASX All Mining index rose by 44%. Mining stocks peaked in January 1970, then immediately crashed. Poseidon shares peaked at an intraday high of $280 in February 1970, and fell rapidly thereafter..."

And then the salutary lesson :

.."By the time Poseidon actually started producing nickel, the price of nickel had fallen. Also, the nickel ore was of a lower grade than originally thought and extraction costs were higher. Profits from the mine were not sufficient to keep Poseidon afloat and it went into receivership in 1974.."

NAI, DYOR, etc etc

Hi Vet 10

Well, we're still awaiting the outcome of Vale's offer/auction(?) of 10% of its new minerals division, GM, Saudi PIF and Mitsui mentioned as being in the frame. That might give us a clue...

Vale's already signed up 3 x Gulf green iron ore studies.

Vale's Brazil-based, Brazil would be a logical market for potash/phosphate exports through the new port..which could also handle C-B's copper (hence my Q earlier)...and , of course, any iron ore that might(;->) be available.

If you step back a bit from the ZIOC specifics (which - however close to our hearts /wallets- is actually just an input) and think of the overall picture, there's a lot more going on ....and maybe other investment angles to explore.

Interesting times!

Hi marcusg71,

From your link .."In 2021, the Republic of the Congo exported goods worth $1.75 billion to the UAE, with the main exported products being Refined Copper ($1.6 billion) and Gold ($70.6 million) according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC). During the last 16 years the exports of the Republic of the Congo to the UAE have increased at an annualised rate of 30%, from $26 million in 2005 to $1.75 billion in 2021. TradeArabia News Service.."

Copper ? is there a 'green minerals' angle here that we've been missing? I thought most of the interest there lay in DRC, where GLEN is quite big...or is C-B just re-exporting DRC's copper - because it has a convenient port?

Hmmm...

My interest ?

You wrote .." Chris Bogart and company should start reaching out to opposition presidential candidates after the August primaries."

If BUR wants to monetise as quickly as possible for as much as possible, maybe it should negotiate with a view to 'flipping' its claim to an SWF that had deeper pockets, a longer time horizon ...and 'other' strategic interests in Argentina...that made a useful bargaining chip for a more consensual/attractive to the Argentines outcome ?

I'm obv talking my own book here...

ATB

Hi Mr M,

Great find - and assessment, duly recc'd.

Do you happen to know which SWF(s) BUR co-partners with ? I seem to recall GIC/Temasek, but wondered whether they dealt with the Gulf, also.

TIA

TIA

Hi Jiving,

The bit about the plane is interesting.

A 'consortium' approach to the logistics around ZIOC/Congo /Africa/S America /BRICS ++ would make sense.

I've been joining some dots of my own ...

'Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery'.

Hat tip to MM for this.

Savvy006

Your 0635 today

From the 28 Apr RNS A/R and Financing :

.."· TAG Unsecured Working Capital Loan Agreement to provide up to £2,800,000 as flexible facility aimed at supporting the Group working capital and growth capital needs up to 31 January 2024..."

At a guess...

HTH

Could be !

Here's further evidence of the FOMO factor at work in the Gulf SWF competition for logistic assets

https://globalswf.com/news/the-last-frontier-gulf-swfs-compete-for-african-ports-but-china-is-in-control

and AD Ports seems to be willing to 'splash the cash'

https://www.reuters.com/markets/sudan-signs-6-bln-agreement-with-emirati-consortium-develop-red-sea-port-2022-12-13/

Popcorn at the ready....

;->

Nguesso a 'no show' at the African delegation to Russia/Ukraine.

https://www.africaintelligence.com/the-continent/2023/06/14/sassou-lobbies-au-leaders-to-postpone-ukraine-mediation-mission,109994379-art

"Sassou lobbies AU leaders to postpone Ukraine mediation mission

Breaking news published on 15/06/23, 19.15 - Over the last 24 hours, Denis Sassou Nguesso has been trying to convince his counterparts at the African Union to delay a mediation mission to Kyiv and Moscow scheduled for 16 June. His efforts to persuade the six other leaders expected to take part in the trip have not been universally welcomed. ..."

Guess he's got bigger fish to fry...

;->

Questions raised but not addressed at the InvestorMeet have now appeared :

https://www.investormeetcompany.com/investor/meeting/business-overview

- true sale confirmed?: Q 8,15,20, 52. A : it's up to each co to check with its accountants and auditors at FYE.

- Storm Harbour liquidation? : Q 59 A: can't comment on other co's [ what about materiality, as UK rep?]

- TF separation, what news ? : Q 56,93.96 A : 'work in progress'

- TAG and stock loans use/ settlement ? : Q 3,5,47,49, 78 A : AZ can't comment re TAG's intentions.

SYME acknowledges that it cannot confirm 'true sale ' status has been achieved. And how can the CEO of SYME tell shareholders that he can't comment on the intentions of TAG, where he's supposedly the ultimate beneficial owner?

Not a good look, IMO.