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Hi Jiving, thanks for making the point far better than I did!

Hi MItch,

I can't see any consortium wanting to share the project with 'new ZIOC', what would it bring to the party?

GLEN has some relevance (apart from the marketing/royalty set-up) both in-country (reported tie-in with Sapro Mayoko and its (its bankers') still extant oil prefinance loan exposure to Congo Govt.....and internationally, because of the trade-offs and introductions that it has.

GLEN can credibly point to any buyers that it (well, Xtract) has fronted all the $ 350m capex so far.....and that it has the capability (not exercised, but never mind) to go it alone, if necessary.(so needs compensating if it is to forgo the big post development revenues)...and will hopefully squeeze a bit more on the buyout side (for IT and us as tag-along in the short term), all the while hanging on to a 30 year revenue stream as well.

[As someone said, we have a lot to thank Elphick (and maybe even AT?) for]

But GLEN's people's bonuses won't be influenced as much by 'money down the road' - however large - as what they can show during their time in office, so hopefully they'll find the 'sweet spot'.

What an (appropriately French) finance Minister once nicely described as the art of plucking geese : ' the maximum amount of feathers, for the least amount of hissing'.

AFAICS

Hi jiving,

Lula meeting MBS suggests Vale is going with PIF on the IPO ...and Lula wants more of the same : Brazil's economy is a bit anaemic and he's not got back the popular support (as Meyerfeld has pointed out) that he had when last in office.

Good spot!

$ 450m oil to Brazil vs $ 64 m chicken and beef the other way on the current account.

OTOH, IF Vale does the railway, the boot's on the other foot on the capital account...

Maybe DSN has someone else in mind for the railway and Lula's just giving a gentle squeeze.

Interpret that as you will ;->

A good weekend to one and all.

Cont......

.".Anyway, we will be monitoring this. Long with an itchy trigger finger. But for now, the polls look stable.

People are fed up—they have had enough.

They are willing to try something completely radical to get out of their economic mess. When a country gets to that point, it is an amazing thing.

The hard decisions will come later…”

I have no first-hand knowledge of Argentina and welcome input and comments.

NAI, DYOR, IMO, AIUI, etc etc.

Warning! Long, somewhat O/T post, but maybe worth re-visiting post Preska award.

Looking beyond the determination of final quantum of BUR’s award, BUR then faces the challenge of collection.

About 6 months ago, Jared Dillian - Senior Editor - Mauldin Economics mentioned a couple of stocks that seemed to be acting as bell-wethers of the Argentine economy, a bank group Grupo Financiero Galicia S.A. (GGAL) and YPF S.A. (YPF) the oilco, Argentina’s co-defendant in our case.

Jared has a strong and successful trading background, but a quirky and sometimes contrarian take on things. From the blurb : “His free weekly newsletter The 10th Man is named after a strategy which states: if nine people agree on a particular action or plan, then the tenth must disagree in order to stir up alternatives to be considered. In short, it’s a mechanism used to avoid groupthink (a malady affecting a large percentage of investment newsletters)…”

Anyway, about 6 months ago, he made an aside that GGAL and YPF were showing curious (ie positive) behaviour for a ‘basket-case country’.

Given my BUR interest, I started tracking them. My partner – who’s more spontaneous than I am – actually bought some.

Fast forward 6 months….and she’s obviously (;->) delighted to tell me that GGAL (StockRank 79) is up 72 % and YPF(Stock Rank 98) is up 66 %.

This is NOT investment advice, but context.

Here’s his latest commentary…and a flavour of his style :

…”Well, the Argentina trade keeps working. So far so good. Tough to get big in this trade. I have high conviction, but elections are unpredictable, and they can always snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. I can see the Argentines getting cold feet before electing a crazy-haired Austrian as president.

So we will keep a close eye on this trade. If Milei is elected, it’s a potential 5-10x over 2-3 years.

These are big, profitable companies with microscopic market caps. I can tell you that GGAL is a real bank with a front door. Saw branches when I was in Buenos Aires a few years ago. It’s not just an abstraction. How they function in that environment is beyond me, but they manage to do it.

Sometimes in TDD I repeat myself, but I want to reiterate this: some of the best investment opportunities come from when a country that is economically unfree becomes economically free.

..if you’ve traded, you know that center-right candidates are best for markets. Milei is off the charts far-right, at least economically, so we will see what happens.

Really, the best thing that could happen to Argentina is dollarization, and I suspect that is why those stocks are rallying. I also suspect that dollarization is in their future no matter what happens, because they’re painted into a corner. There is no alternative. You’ve seen the photos of people paying for steak dinners with stacks of pesos.

Continued....

Hi Mitch 984,

Yes, but "this time it's different.. "

To Vet10's points, I'd add (apart from GLEN's change of approach !)

Locally we've got MBS on his modernisation/international assertiveness drive;

the UAE playing catch-up;

the UAE hosting COP28 and the whole 'green is good' agenda;

Vale with (supposedly) an alchemist's stone for transmuting ore, especially 'the good stuff';

a move away from the dollar into 'hard assets' and a re-setting of the world order post Covid and with the Ukraine conflict (major disruption to energy and food markets) still to play out.

There's some seriously disruptive stuff going on.

I think/hope ZIOC will be a part of it......but that, in the scheme of things, it'll be a walk-on part.

AFAICS

And nobody's curious about the fact that shareholders holding 40 BILLION shares (2/3rds) didn't bother (or couldn't?) vote their shares ?

Denial isn't a river in Egypt.

Your position might be more tenable if you'd asked about the loan shares.

As a Spanish friend once said to me : 'I'm old enough to know that - if I have to ask the question- I'm probably not going to like the answer'.

As it is, you're in denial, IMO.

Whatever, good luck.

Hi Savvy

I've only asked 2 questions, so you're off to a bad start. And no, for the umpteenth time, I'm not TW or working with -or for- anybody.

Your obsession with conspiracy theories may be justified, but I think you're looking in the wrong direction.

You've been banging on about the loan shares issue (again, from the wrong direction, IMO) today was a chance to ask some targeted questions, yet you bottled it.

Don't blame others for YOUR decisions.

Only 20 billion of 60 billion shares are voting, why isn't AZ/TAG voting? Hasn't he got the authority from his nominee co's, as was the reason in previous AGM's ?

Wierd!

The longstop date for TF resolution/settlement is 7 July....did AZ confirm that the deadline will be met?

(a) We're due an update by Fri 30th June

(b) If there's something going on, they're not going to say anything until it's a done deal.

Sometimes, 'no news' MAY actually be good news.

Let's hope this is one of them.

Https://www.adportsgroup.com/en/news-and-media/2023/06/20/adpg-signs-a-30-year-extendable-concession-agreement-with-republic-of-the-congo

...and scroll back over the last 5 days posts for more.

HTH

Per stockopedia, SRT currently doesn't have any II declarable holdings :

Robert Persey 28.7m 15.8%

David Brierwood 13.8m 7.62%

Jonathan Horne 8.3m 4.57%

Ian Lang 8.0m 4.42%

David Newlands 5.8m 3.22%

Simon Tucker 3.0m 1.64%

John Lobbenberg 1.1m 0.62%

Neil Peniket 1.1m 0.62%

Richard Hurd 0.6m 0.33%

Mark Shaw 0.2m 0.1%

Total 38.9%

It'll be interesting to see (a) if the 6.4m Placing shares are taken up by any II's this time and (b)whether/in which direction the above change their holdings.

They obviously know more than me....but on the available public info, I don't see this as distress funding and have taken part in the 1.5m Retail share offer, rounding my holding up a bit.

ATB

Hat tip to LaValmy

..."I have just seen the broker's note.

'In the absence of an equity raise, current debt facilities comfortably support peak net debt of £7.3m in the forecast horizon (1H25)...' They also intimate that the large Asian contract will be financed by the GEF and then loan notes programme if needed.

More interestingly, from the £380 million pipeline 'we include two projects worth £30m in FY25E forecasts which are expected to be announced soon. These contracts are part of a £150m Fisheries contract with an existing customer in South East Asia comprising of 5 projects in total.' All eyes on a resolution to the current issues and further developments on the BFAR's Imems project. EU Red Card in the offing?...."

NAI, DYOR etc etc

And there's this, from last December : https://lesechos-congobrazza.com/9012-france-congo-denis-sassou-n-guesso-recu-a-l-elysee

... reports an earlier meeting between Macron and DSN, presumably laying the groundwork for the current symposium and praising DSN's role highlighting the importance of the Congo Basin rain forest, second 'lung' after the Amazon, but with a kicker sidenote :

.. also, a courtesy meeting between DSN and the Head of MSC, who'd just bought Bollore Africa Logistics (for Euro 5.7billion) , to reassure DSN that .."we will keep the commitments made in the past by the Bolloré family.. Specialized in port logistics, the MSC company intends to increase the volume of its port activities in Congo and open the country to the rest of the world. Its CEO has announced that it will also be able to invest in the port of Brazzaville to serve neighboring countries and see the possibilities of improving port infrastructure...."

AD Ports has (so far) confined its expansion efforts close to home, fanning out from the Gulf up to Iraq and Kazakhstan and around the Horn of Africa to Egypt.

MSC is also expanding rapidly, but more globally : apart from the Bollore Africa network in December 2022, it previously( late 2021) acquired a controlling interest in one Brazilian port operator (Log-In) ; and there's currently speculation that it's trying to do the same with a second, Wilson Sons, Brazil's largest port operator.

If so, it would be in a position to collaborate well with AD Ports in 'opening Congo to the rest of the world', especially across the Atlantic to S America.

'Build it and they will come', indeed!

GLA

2 x snippets from the press https://www.lesdepechesdebrazzaville.fr/

(1) Apart from joining the general discussions about new financing initiatives , including PPP, the role of multilateral banks and debt relief for Africa, DSN will be joining a round table discussion on climate change and the importance of preserving rain forests.

The discussion will be moderated by French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna, apart from DSN participants are

Lula da Silva (Brazil), Cyril Ramaphosa (South Africa), Abdel Fattah al-Sissi (Egypt) and Ali

Bongo Ondimba (Gabon).

To his credit, DSN has been active in this area for some time...and judging by this

https://uneca.org/stories/president-sassou-nguesso-calls-for-unique-african-voice-on-climate-change

we can expect Congo-Brazzaville to figure prominently in upcoming COP 28.

All the more reason to highlight Gulf/Congo co-operation in all things 'green'.

(2) Arise IIP looks to be an ancilliary beneficiary of the AD Ports contract :

.."Arise entrusts the development of the Pointe-Noire ZES to the Codimex Group A major player in the construction and public works sector in the Republic of Congo and in Africa, MPWH, which belongs to the Codimex Group, has been entrusted with the development works for the construction of the Pointe-Noire Special Economic Zone (ZES)...

This program aims to attract foreign direct investment of an estimated one billion dollars, of which 150 million will be dedicated to development of the industrial ecosystem. The first phase should be completed within the next two years, and efforts to attract investors have already begun..."

Codimpex looks a bit iffy, but there you go.

Onwards and upwards !

ZIOC usually delays to the last minute, so we may not get anything until Fri 30th.

They give the results to 31 /12/2022 and then should give some info on 'post-balance sheet' events.

If there's nothing going on, they'll re-cycle old stuff, if there's anything going on they'll probably be schtum.

;->

Nagle will want to prove himself as new CEO and Elphick's other quoted company GEMD hasn't been doing well : he won't be short of a few bob, but I'm sure a 'monetisation event' at ZIOC would be welcome.

So interests are aligned, at a guess..

;->