Member Info for extrader

Pls keep us (well, me at least) posted.

ATB

Thank you...do you have a specific charity in mind?

Some as yet uncommitted may want to join you...at different price-points, to increase its chances ...

And, of course, there's nothing to stop anyone recycling more in-country anyway.

ATB

Yes, msge @ 0812 from Primary Bid...get on to your broker!

ATB

Hi nibj,

Thanks for 'taking one for the team' ;->

If you join the sweep, some charity - maybe even your own - is going to be very grateful !

Jes' sayin', like....

As Voltaire said ' God is on the side of the big battalions'.

Mind you, he subsequently qualified this, by saying

'God isn't on the side of the big battalions, but on the side of those who shoot best'

I 'only' got 2/3rds of my requested (15%) allocation, which was more than I needed to offset the (6+%) dilution, so can't complain.

And , as it turns out, PI's could buy in the market at pretty much the same price, maybe a tad lower, if nimble.

Re Sapro Mayoko, does anyone have a better handle on its resource size than this,

https://www.bus-ex.com/article/exxaro-resources-1

.." Early findings from the project at Mayoko indicate that this mine has significant potential in terms of resource quality and size, with much of the groundwork for this near-term development opportunity in an emerging iron ore province already completed by African Iron. The project currently has a JORC -compliant mineral resource of 685 metric tonnes of iron ore, consisting of a hematite cap of direct shipping ore (DSO) at 55 percent Fe and beneficial DSO ore at 41 percent Fe..."

I assume that's a typo for 685million. Obambi has spoken grandiosely of 100million mtpa...

On the face of it , a bit 'underwhelming' ?

We still need a slurry pipe or a railway….

Maybe the question is, what would suit Sapro Mayoko?

;->

Oops!

Missed a bit in the thought process : GLEN staying in as a gesture of faith and to protect its 30 year windfall earnings.

It would certainly be a ‘motivated’ player !

At $1.25 : £1 for a ‘clean’ exit, that would be 267p to 400p, over 600m shares.

Would $1.5 billion up front be enough for GLEN?

Has anyone done a sensitivity analysis on what its future revenue stream might be from a marketing fee/ royalties perspective?

THAT might give an idea of the relative importance to GLEN of the two components and the trade-offs between a ‘clean exit’ …and it maybe being willing to stay in as a shareholder in any development consortium.

The other putative consortium members might like to have GLEN inside the tent, as a useful, minority participant in a new business model for resource extraction for Africa and the ‘enlarged BRICS’ world……

Get your charity nomination in!

To coin a phrase, you’ve got to be in it to win it.

ATB/GLA

Hi 4kandles,

Will do.

My younger sister has early onset dementia, so understand (at least partially) where you're coming from.

Hope that things work out for your Dad (and you).

ATB

.....or, IF things ARE advanced (and they have the release ready), maybe even RNS and suspend earlier than the indicated date.

Stocko says Thursday 29th, I don't know on what basis.....does it have to book a slot with the RNS news release service?

I personally don't want to be out, full stop.

Hi ShrewdDude,

I don't know.

Thinking it through :

The results themselves only go to 31/12, so they can get away with referring to the Nov/Dec restructuring and its (already RNS'd) highlights in the commentary.

The tricky bit is the 'post balance sheet' events update : as others have said, ZIOC may be the last to be told....and equally well, it won't want to upset anyone by giving the game (IF there is one) away.

They could do some of the 'dot-joining' that is in the public domain, as 'market commentary' - eg noting 3x Gulf interest in 'green ore' and how well-suited the Zanaga product would be; and how AD Ports signed contract for Pointe Noire (assuming expansion actually goes ahead) addresses part of the export route issues. But , more than that.......?

There's no mechanism or provision (I think) for ZIOC to have to answer any questions after a results statement (is there a precedent ?) ....and years of AT being unavailable, in any case ! - so I'm not sure that existence of NDA or otherwise is relevant.

IF, repeat IF, things are at an advanced stage, the safest thing to do (after getting whatever assurances and regulatory consents are needed) and to avoid creating a false market MIGHT be to announce the results as required (at 0700), including the post-events commentary as above and then immediately ask the regulator to suspend the shares, pending an announcement.......

Who knows?

I personally wouldn't want to be out of these Wednesday night.

All the above is just IMO, if anyone thinks (or better still, KNOWS) otherwise, pray tell!

HTH and ATB

OK , guys,

You've had the weekend to digest...and a few more straws in the wind today.

I particularly like the multiple x 50K buys, maybe someone wants in and is having to nibble. Just IMO.

So, for all the regulars....and any newcomers, it's time to sharpen your pencils and join the sweep.

The line-up so far :

141p Driving Christian Aid/Congo 5%

185p ShrewdDude 67 Macmillan 2%

200p extrader Alzheimer Research 2%

250p TheDealBreaker Hinckley Homeless 1%

285p HappySwinner Alzheimer Research ?

325p 4Kandles ?? ?

Thanks for the input...and for a choice of good causes.

Everyone's welcome to join in : just cut and paste, then (1) insert your price and (2) name in the list where appropriate, adding (3) your chosen charity and (4) %age of 'windfall' that you would donate to the charity closest to the final takeout price.

ATB and GLA

Hi ShrewdDude67

I had a look at this, in case ZIOC was under any disclosure obligation...

https://www.pinsentmasons.com/out-law/guides/disclosure-of-price-sensitive-information--fsa-rules

Ironically, AFAICS, the dot joining research we've been sharing here MAY mean ZIOC DOESN'T have to say anything

.."Imprecise information, and news that is generally applicable, is not announceable; nor are CONCLUSIONS or facts THAT CAN BE GLEANED FROM RESEARCH OR ANALYSIS, because any investor (in theory) has access to the same material..."

;->

Hi AceofClubs

Health warnings are always welcome!

Reporting currency and inflation accounting obv makes a difference...and there could well be a case of GIGO.

Stocko uses ArPeso reporting for the (USD) ADR, which gives it a PE of 0.4, a div yield of 42% and a price to TBV of 0.88..

[For YPF , it has a more 'normal' PE of 4.3, no dividend and a price to TBV of 0.68]

'Yer pays yer money, yer makes yer choice'.

My interest is mainly as a bell-wether of Argentina generally and YPF specifically (not only because it was'part of the problem', but because I think it could conceivably end up being part of the debt settlement negotiations).

Hence, my purchase of a (small) stake in YPF, vs my partner's stake in both......

And the capitalised Health /Wealth Warning in the opening post!

HTH

Hi Aberdeenman

I'd been working to ZIOC m.o. of leaving things to the last minute ie Friday, but stocko seem to think it might be earlier :

.."Thursday, June 29th 2023

Full Year 2022 Zanaga Iron Ore Company Ltd Earnings Release.."

PS Why not join the sweep? for a bit of fun and a chance to leverage something extra for your favourite charity?

ATB

Curiously, the English language version of the O Globo article was datelined yesterday (Sunday), the Portuguese/Brazilian one today.

https://valor.globo.com/empresas/noticia/2023/06/26/venda-de-fatia-da-vale-nos-metais-deve-ser-fechada-ate-setembro.ghtml

Hmm.

.."That suggests to me that VALE has a 'harvest' policy for iron ore and won't necessarily put much cash into the sector itself, but rather leverage its experience and skillsets and connections..."

If THAT thesis is correct, it suggests that VALE would also be happy to 'project manage' the mooted rail link to 'superPN', providing someone else is footing the bill....

It seems likely that AD Ports could well subcontract to these people...

https://www.gulftoday.ae/business/2022/11/25/ad-ports-inks-deal-with-chinese-firm-for-infrastructure-project

.."AD Ports Group has signed a contract with China Harbour Engineering Company (CHEC) for the development of buildings and topside infrastructure for the cutting-edge CMA Terminals Khalifa Port, a joint venture owned by CMA CGM’s subsidiary CMA Terminals (with a 70 per cent stake) and AD Ports Group (30 per cent stake)...."

Note too the J/V structure : 70/30 split between 'the knowledge/connections' and 'the money'.....

Https://valorinternational.globo.com/business/news/2023/06/25/sale-of-vales-metals-stake-expected-to-close-by-september.ghtml

A good description of the 'due diligence' dance, with this little snippet :

.."One executive said that there are cases when the potential partner may demand a more restrictive agreement, which would tend to make it more difficult for other partners to enter the business in the future. This does not appear to be the case with PIF. The deal has already received the green light from the mining company’s board, and THERE IS A POSSIBILITY ALBEIT REMOTE THAT THE SAUDIS WILL BRING IN ANOTHER INVESTOR if they wish, to whom they could cede part of the 10% stake in the company..."

and also worth noting , VALE is doing with iron ore exactly what GLEN is doing with its coal assets :

.."As Vale indicated in a statement on Tuesday, the company has been working for a year and a half to separate the metals business from the rest of the company, whose flagship is iron ore, an input for the steel industry to produce steel. With the separation of metals, Vale should have two independent businesses: iron ore and base metals.

In a report on metals this year, BTG Pactual estimated that the transaction will allow Vale to have two different stories. One is iron ore, an activity that will continue to be a strong cash cow. In this segment, the bank said, growth opportunities are limited and there is the prospect that free cash flow will continue to be distributed to shareholders in the form of dividends and share buybacks.

The metals business is seen as a platform for the energy transition, which will require strong investment to meet market demand"

That suggests to me that VALE has a 'harvest' policy for iron ore and won't necessarily put much cash into the sector itself, but rather leverage its experience and skillsets and connections.

ZIOC would appear to be a good test case for this evolving business strategy.

AFAICS

GLA

Nothing but the best for Saudi

https://www.independent.ie/business/saudi-wealth-fund-pif-behind-new-aircraft-lessor-avilease/41807915.html

Saudi Arabia’s vast sovereign wealth fund, Public Investment Fund (PIF), is the 100pc owner of aircraft leasing venture Avilease, which launched this week.

The Irish Independent first reported on Wednesday that two of the most experienced figures in Irish aircraft leasing, including former CARLYLE Aviation Partners executive Ted O’Byrne and aviation lawyer Rob Murphy, of law firm Arthur Cox, were directors of the new aircraft leasing platform, Avilease Aviation Management Ireland, and a number of related companies.

Before joining Carlyle Aviation Partners in 2010, Mr O’Byrne was the CIO at Dublin-based AerCap, THE WORLD'S LARGEST AIRCRAFT LEASING COMPANY.

Seasoned aviation lawyer Rob Murphy is co-chair of Arthur Cox’s aviation group and was previously chief operating officer and general counsel at CDB Aviation having started his career at GUINNESS PEAT AVIATION.

Let's hope that they're consistent in being willing to pay top $$ for another quality product.

GLA