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Hi atg,

Great question!

IIRC, 'dawn raids' work in an environment where there are a lot of (known) institutional investors and a 'raider' can do soundings for an acceptable price....and (cynic mode), knowing that II's are short-term herd animals, with quarterly/annual performance and bonus targets in mind.

You have quiet discussions with half a dozen insti's and you're there.

That wouldn't work with ZIOC, given its fragmented holdings (other than GLEN, Elphick and Everitt). Plus, no-one outside the insiders will (or should) have the detailed resource and other info on which to make an 'informed' decision.

My only direct experience of this in action was when Dana Petroleum DNX was taken over by KNOC (Korea National Oilco) , after a bitter rearguard action by then CEO Tom Cross, when the II's definitely took the short-term money and ran.

See https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11225985

for some other interesting read-across...

I think the key here - for better or worse - is GLEN.

AFAICS

.." the slurry pipe will after all need to be built(by a Chinese firm?, on behalf of the Saudis?)."

Whoever does the work, it's at least possible that these people https://ausenco.com/about/ will have some input :

https://ausenco.com/projects/minas-rio-worlds-longest-iron-concentrate-pipeline/

and

https://ausenco.com/projects/da-hong-shan-scada-system-for-high-pressure-slurry-pipeline/

As a key piece of infrastructure, this isn't somewhere to 'nickel and dime'.

In fact, you want it 'gold-plated'.

I'll get my coat...

Thanks, Driving!

There's a fair degree of overlap there in our approaches.

Looking fwd to that 5 May invitation!

I'm originally from Liverpool myself, though you'd never guess.

ATB

.."Thank Ext. So wheres my invitation :-) :-) :-) hahaha LOL."

LOL, indeed!

Actually, I think we should ALL be waiting on that invitation to Abergele......

;->

Thanks again, alwayshoping !

.." we see opportunities for Chinese companies and Saudi companies to also invest internationally in third countries ... in ways that will bring development to other developing countries. I think this summit signifies an increasing tendency towards south-south collaboration and partnership,”

says the Minister of Investment (aka PIF, via HMV*)

* HIs Master's Voice

Hi alwayshoping,

Thanks for being the mystery shopper !

No disrespect to you, but it may well be that the Shard facility is effectively 'by invitation only', for the various reasons that have been mentioned..and those that have not .

Cheers!

;->

From owenski elsewhere

SRT hired a sales person fairly recently to develop this side of the business, it's a tidy chunk for an order and suggests this 'new' vertical is starting.

SRT have said they see significant business for what used to be called the 'AtoN'.

They are also high margin sales units.

Finncap, meanwhile has stuck with its 100p target.

Hey Driving,

Apols for the somewhat o/t, but what's going on at GEMD, which I see you follow ?

I only looked at it from the Elphick connection, the s/p seems a bit bombed out, is that sector -general or GEMD specific ?

Are you invested on fundamentals, charts or what?

I had a holding (can't call it an investment) in PDL over 25 years ago, mainly because one of my customers (Ma'an al Sanea) was a big investor there....until things all went p'tong (for him).

Sa'ad Investments....https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-debt-restructuring-exclusive-idUSKBN1QQ0AQ

TIA ...and happy to continue over there.

Quite.

And- snap!- I broke my rules and also had a small (unexpected) top-up.

It seemed rude not to...

ATB

Hi 4kandles,

An overhang only arises where there's a holder who's a motivated seller.

AIUI, ZIOC has no immediate cash needs and the Shard arrangement was 'technical', to satisfy the 12 month 'going concern ' outlook, which looks beyond the 31/12/2023 end-date of the GLEN facility.

So there won't/shouldn't be any likelihood of Shard rushing to place shares, killing off any rise. In fact, because their ££ comes from their 5% commission chargeable on a 3-month 'lookback' basis, they're actually incentivised to slow down sales in a rising market.

Companies House show them as a boutique financial services business, catering to family offices, HighNet Worth individuals, Golden Visa applicants, etc. They look after Client Assets of £ 1.2Bn and have assets under management AUM of US$ 2.14 Bn. So they're unlikely to 'front run' any customer purchases.

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/OC360394/filing-history

Their website https://www.shardcapitalstockbrokers.com/ isn't overly informative or kept up to date, but amongst its palette of products is

ALTERNATIVE RESOURCE CAPITAL

Alternative Resource Capital is a natural-resources focused financial advisor and corporate broker.

ARC leverages its in-house specialist expertise as it seeks to become a leading advisory firm, providing corporate broking, research, institutional sales and corporate finance services.

Its team, which has many years’ experience, is well known in the sector, having successfully executed a variety of transactions for both public and private mining companies, across a wide range of commodities.

It's not inconceivable that Shard - which doesn't have to pay for the Shares at time of subscription - will take ZIOC's advice (maybe even instruction?) on when to place, based on ZIOC's actual cash requirements and other considerations, including the share price. Who knows - ZIOC may even have a say in who gets sent an application....?

Look how long it took to eke out the last facility - 3 YEARS -and Elphick's repeated invocation of 'minimize shareholder dilution' :

-6/2020 3x 7m tranches announced (again, just before 2019 results and 'going concern' test;

-1/2021 7m placed

-5/2021 7m placed

-7/2022 4m placed, 3m left

-6/2023 3 x 12m tranches

AT missed a trick in not pointing this out in the release, IMO.

HTH

Hi alwayshoping,

If you have the time, it might be helpful to the board if you were to act as our 'mystery shopper' and contact Shard to see what the procedure for buying is ?

From the RNS

.."SMC has agreed to use its reasonable endeavours to place all the Subscription Shares comprised in that Tranche WITHIN A 3 MONTH PERIOD from the date of issue of the relevant Subscription Shares to it (the "Relevant Three Month Period")...

To my mind that gives ZIOC (through them) considerable discretion in deciding who Shard'll place the shares with...

Good luck!

;->

.."Which kinda ties in with the 'green imperative' that is - I believe - driving a lot of the upsurge in activity we're seeing..."

Which has a COP 28 Dec 2023 timeline.

Before that, however, there's the BRICS summit in S Africa 22-24 August 2023, with Saudi Arabia and UAE amongst the applicants to join.

Don't know about Putin, but Lula of Brazil is sure to be there, maybe Xi himself...

What better way for Saudi and the UAE to 'earn their stripes' as new members by showcasing their commitment to South South co-operation [ and, incidentally , thumbing their noses at US hegemony] than by a 'live' example of Brazil > Africa > China co-operation ?

From alwayshoping's excellent article yesterday (snippets) :

-VALE a driver of Brazil foreign policy, gets embassies opened where it hopes/expects to do business (sound familiar?)

[Brazil already had an embassy in Congo...maybe it suggested Saudi should open one !]

- Then Pres (and now again Pres) Lula backed VALE in its overseas drive.....

- VALE's vision was/is Brazil to China, via Africa...

- sees itself as spearheading new Brazilian South-South strategy;

- VALE is 15% of Brazilian stockmarket;

As the President of US's General Motors once told Congress : 'What's good for America is good for GM...AND vice versa'

So, maybe 2 x opportunities to strut the world stage - August and/or December.

Decisions, decisions...

ATB

Hi Vet10,

Congrats on getting through to AT!

It's not death spiral, ZIOC has some control (staged release and - quite likely- some 'availability' criteria) and Shard is incentivized to get max price because that improves the ££ of its 5% commission, which is paid at the END of the subscription period, on a 'lookback' basis.

Plus, ZIOC has repeated the formula : last 3rd is at its discretion...and it can 'pull' the facility at any time.

It emphasizes its wish to minimize dilution...and this approach is consistent with that.

All IMO

.."If we are part way through the FEED stage, then the 12 month clock has started ticking..."

When you consider how quickly AD Ports pushed the PN transaction through, you have to question the leisurely indicated timing for the Chinese co to come back with some tweaked numbers on the ZIOC-specific infrastructure.

It's one thing to put up 3 x iron ore plants in a part of the world that is already an efficient, world-class logistics and construction hub, with a large /deep resource of skilled manpower, it's quite another to do a greenfield project in a country that's never seen anything remotely like the scale and complexity of what's needed here.

If the Gulfies want to have ZIOC ore available as feedstock for the 3 x plants, they have to 'move fast and break things', IMO.

Somewhat O/T : this was the position in Saudi itself, just after the first oil spike.

Saudi Arabia had committed to hosting an Islamic Cooperation conference in Taif, the 'summer capital' near Jeddah (6,000 ft up in the Hejaz mountains).

Jeddah port had no resources, ships were waiting 4-6 months in the roads, the contracts for construction of the conference centre and hotels for attendee accommodation were behind schedule.

An enterprising maths teacher from Lebanon, Rafik alHariri, tied up with a small French construction co (Oger) and managed an audience with the King (in those days, things were pretty informal) and persuaded HRH that he could solve the problem, if the contract were amended to a 'cost+ ' basis.

This was done. Hariri /Saudi Oger then sourced a fleet of helicopters and then AIRLIFTED cement and other materials (marble etc) from the offshore vessels up the hills to Taif....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rafic_Hariri

Saudi Oger went on to be 'preferred contractor' for the country's 'showcase' buildings, while M Binladen (that Binladen family) Organisation - for having shown similar creativity in other areas- had a 'lock' on a lot of the more mass market building work, particularly around the Holy Cities.

Rafik himself went on to become an effective and successful politician back in Lebanon, culminating as Prime Minister, before being assassinated in 2005 in a 4,000lb suicide bombing.

Apols for a somewhat self-indulgent O/T. But it shows what lengths people can go to when 'face' and 'image' become important drivers.

Which kinda ties in with the 'green imperative' that is - I believe - driving a lot of the upsurge in activity we're seeing.

ATB

Hi atg,

Could be, but if that were the issue, GLEN might decide that it's better to be inside the tent, p*ssing out, etc....and just use its ZIOC rights as a bargaining chip to get something else that it wants somewhere else in the world.

'Know when to hold, know when to fold, etc..'

Great article !

Snippets :

- VALE a driver of Brazil foreign policy, gets embassies opened where it hopes/expects to do business (sound familiar?)

- Then Pres (and now again Pres) Lula backed VALE in its overseas drive.....

- Simandou was a failure because of cultural/language difficulties, belief it would be a straightforward 'repeat Carajas';

- VALE's vision was/is Brazil to China, via Africa...

- sees itself as spearheading new Brazilian South-South strategy;

- VALE is 15% of Brazilian stockmarket;

And, from alwayshoping link, call me a softie :

- 2023 will be the 50th anniversary of VALE first shipment of ore to China....

The Chinese for sure understand non-Portuguese speaking Africa better than VALE...and VALE /Saudi have both worked with Chinese co's (incl BaoWu specialist subsidiaries) on other projects.

Mindful of all the above, I reckon Saudi would want VALE (its global strategic partner) to do the project management (skillset transference) and the Chinese to do the actual construction....and that (because of its Simandou learning experience) VALE would probably prefer that too.

AFAICS,

ATB

Hi Vet10,

I think that - maybe - we were/are still very close to a deal that would have made the auditor's sign-off and the contentious 'going concern' issue academic.

They left the announcement of the facility to the last minute (not wanting to advertise public weakness ?) and their hand was forced.

A placing would normally require some financial disclosure, which might itself be an issue.

Consider this :

.." For illustrative purposes only, if the average price at which SMC places the 36,000,000 shares was 13.30 pence (being ZIOC's mid-market closing share price on 29 June 2023), the net proceeds received by ZIOC from such sales would be approximately £4.55m..."

For under 5% dilution (which they really try to avoid).

As at today's closing s/p (8.5p), that would raise £ 2.9m. Put the other way round, at today's rate, they'd have to have a programme for abt 54 million shares to raise the same amount in ££, over 8% dilution.

We really don't want to end up with the worst of both worlds...let's hope for everyone's sake that MM is right and that ZIOC is indeed effectively in NDA territory...

ATB

People have speculated about Elphick being maybe greedy on price, I think he was maybe more fearful of dilution

Good point!

Normally, I'd accept the observation, but not the conclusion :

No disrespect, because I think you did a great job with flightradar 24- if you can 'join the dots' , I'm sure the corporate intelligence unit of anybody likely to be interested would have been doing that for some time.

I believe that there are people in the US who offer this to anyone as a subscription.

And Nguesso's very public 'no show at the African leaders' mission to Russia/Ukraine would have been flagged PDQ.

OTOH, playing Devil's advocate, if autocratic and known-to-be -prickly MBS had said 'not a word, guys' that explanation (albeit illogical) would make sense.

Just keep a straight face, your head down and toe the Party line...

"“When you have eliminated all which is impossible, then whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.”

Could be!

OK, MM, I'll bite :

Why WOULD Elphick deliberately play down/miss out factors that show just how many of the 'must have' boxes ZIOC ticks?

Cheers

Good find!

This is a BaoWu-led (as the biggest steel importer) vehicle that is China's attempt to consolidate purchasing power and help keep iron ore prices stable > down..

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/chinas-new-state-run-agency-start-iron-ore-purchases-bloomberg-news-2022-12-16/

.."Beijing created CMRG in July with a registered capital of 20 billion yuan ($3 billion). Guo Bin, executive vice president of Baosteel owner China Baowu Steel Group Co, is general manager of the firm, according to Tianyancha, a Chinese online database of company information.

CMRG is also aiming to develop domestic iron ore resources, AND OVERSEE DEVELOPMENT OF MINES OVERSEAS, it said.

The creation was seen as China's effort to gain MORE CLOUT with suppliers like Rio, BHP Group, Fortescue Metals Group, Vale and others over pricing..."

Fits the bill...and would have BaoWu 'inside the tent'...