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Hi alwayshoping,

Thanks for this timely update.

If the World Bank is looking at rail infrastructure associated with mining projects in SubSaharan Africa, I'm sure they'll take this sister/sponsored publication into account.

https://issuu.com/world.bank.publications/docs/fostering_the_development_of_greenf

It's a dated overview, but covers many of the issues and - helpfully - includes at least a few passing references /comparators re Zanaga amongst prospective iron ore mine developments.

See in particular pp12-14 re Zanaga and peers; pp 16-19and 38-39 re project aspects (incl. ports) and structures; and pp 44-45 port to mine rail distance considerations.

Although dated, ZIOC continues to stack up pretty well against current contenders, IMO..

ATB

Don't know whether you're on the money with Sudan, MM - there's an awful lot of mean hombres (I'm Stateside atm , it's catching) in the 'hood (Wagner in CAR, ISIS and homegrown in Sudan), Kenya is 'peaceful' by comparison.

But anything that makes P-N more important has to be good, as you say, for ZIOCs chances. And if there IS growth in trade to Brazil, an obvious play is Ocean Wilson's (OCN) , largest port operator in Brazil ...and currently subject of some speculative interest from MSC.

If AD Ports (or A.N. Other) joins the fray there after AD's absorbing Spain's Naotum, that would be a Brucie bonus...

Declaration (obvious) : I hold OCN

DYOR, NAI, IMO etc etc

Apols for partly/possibly O/T.

ATB

Saudi certainly seems to be moving front and centre onto the world stage: apart from its now acknowledged contribution to investment flows, Saudi is also pushing for a bigger say on political matters:

Just after the (somewhat abortive) African effort to broker off their own bat a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, followed by Russia's courting of the same African states (incl. C-B) last weekend, Saudi has launched its own initiative, seemingly wrong-footing Russia, see https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-says-it-needs-understand-aims-ukraine-talks-reportedly-planned-saudi-2023-07-31/

Meanwhile, the FT reports that

China’s overseas investment in metals and mining set to hit record

Beijing intensifies efforts to lock up access to renewable energy supply chain

And , not to be outdone, the US is stepping up its engagement with Africa, from today's depeches

.."COOPERATION

US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland expected in Kinshasa Victoria Nuland, Acting Assistant Secretary of State for Political Affairs has been on a tour of Africa that will take her to South Africa , Côte d'Ivoire and the Democratic

Republic of Congo,

The visit, which ends on August 4 is intended to be a moment of exchange and consolidation of interests in Africa. These exchanges aim to strengthen cooperation in the war of influence being waged between Moscow and Washington at a distance. Already, the recent Russia-Africa summit sets the tone of the new diplomatic approach that Russia intends to adopt in Africa. Thus, the arrival in Africa of the acting deputy secretary of state in Africa is, for Washington, an effort

to crush any Russian attempt to re-engage economically with Africa...."

This is the Veronica Nuland, ironically, who oversaw the overthrow of Ukraine's former leadership in 2014, see

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victoria_Nuland

and https://truthout.org/articles/the-ukraine-mess-that-nuland-made/

She and her husband Robert Kagan were also amongst the main advocates for 'regime change' in Iraq....

The US is more interested in EV/green minerals than in 'green iron ore' - its domestic steel production is relatively 'clean', being mainly electric arc and scrap metal - hence the choice of countries on this visit.

Anything that thwarts China AND Russia would be doubly positive, from the US PoV.

Although Guinea's Nimba (Friedland) iron ore mine borders Ivory Coast......

Whichever way you look at it, there's a lot more (non-Chinese) big-power interest in Africa than for some time !

The BRICS summit later this month could see a lot of wheeling and dealing, IMO.

Saudi certainly seems to be moving front and centre onto the world stage: apart from its now acknowledged contribution to investment flows, Saudi is also pushing for a bigger say on political matters:

Just after the (somewhat abortive) African effort to broker off their own bat a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, followed by Russia's courting of the same African states (incl. C-B) last weekend, Saudi has launched its own initiative, seemingly wrong-footing Russia, see https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-says-it-needs-understand-aims-ukraine-talks-reportedly-planned-saudi-2023-07-31/

Meanwhile, the FT reports that

China’s overseas investment in metals and mining set to hit record

Beijing intensifies efforts to lock up access to renewable energy supply chain

And , not to be outdone, the US is stepping up its engagement with Africa, from today's depeches

.."COOPERATION

US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland expected in Kinshasa Victoria Nuland, Acting Assistant Secretary of State for Political Affairs has been on a tour of Africa that will take her to South Africa , Côte d'Ivoire and the Democratic

Republic of Congo,

The visit, which ends on August 4 is intended to be a moment of exchange and consolidation of interests in Africa. These exchanges aim to strengthen cooperation in the war of influence being waged between Moscow and Washington at a distance. Already, the recent Russia-Africa summit sets the tone of the new diplomatic approach that Russia intends to adopt in Africa. Thus, the arrival in Africa of the acting deputy secretary of state in Africa is, for Washington, an effort

to crush any Russian attempt to re-engage economically with Africa...."

This is the Veronica Nuland, ironically, who oversaw the overthrow of Ukraine's former leadership in 2014, see

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victoria_Nuland

and https://truthout.org/articles/the-ukraine-mess-that-nuland-made/

She and her husband Robert Kagan were also amongst the main advocates for 'regime change' in Iraq....

The US is more interested in EV/green minerals than in 'green iron ore' - its domestic steel production is relatively 'clean', being mainly electric arc and scrap metal - hence the choice of countries on this visit. Although Guinea's Nimba (Friedland) iron ore mine borders Ivory Coast......

Whichever way you look at it, there's a lot more (non-Chinese) big-power interest in Africa than for some time !

The BRICS summit later this month could see a lot of wheeling and dealing, IMO.

Rusatom's hydro projects in C-B are handled by their local agent, Ollivier, an old school wheeler-dealer, who fancies himself as a mini Kissinger : it's said that he's the guy behind the recent African HoS's attempts to broker a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia...

https://chimpreports.com/africa-global-security-whos-amama-mbabazis-associate-jean-yves-ollivier/

He he helped get apartheid SA out of Namibia and the Cubans out of Angola, which facilitated the ending of apartheid, maybe in Congo's/Nguesso's/his interests he can get MBS and MBZ to kiss and make up....

Seb's full tweet (or 'X')

.."1. The damages trial in the YPF expropriation case is over.

2. Argentina has already announced that it will appeal whatever ruling Judge Preska issues.

3. The judge showed professionalism and complete impartiality throughout the trial.

4. Both legal teams were outstanding and ready for the challenges that a case of this magnitude offers.

5. IMO Argentina will lose the date argument (APR 16) and may get a break on the interest rate issue (5%-6%).

6. In 10 days, both sides will file post-trial briefs.

7. I don’t expect a ruling until at least late September..."

ATB

The structure that eventually emerged for the CTG consortium for construction of infrastructure for ALL Simandou was set out in this release from Rio Tinto, in July 2022. It had to cater for the interests of the two shareholder groups in 'split' Simandou:

https://www.riotinto.com/news/releases/2022/Government-of-Guinea-Winning-Consortium-Simandou-and-Rio-Tinto-Simfer-incorporate-La-Compagnie-du-TransGuinen-CTG-to-co-develop-the-rail-and-port-infrastructure-for-the-Simandou-iron-ore-project

.."(1)Shareholding of La Compagnie du TransGuinéen will be split between development partners Simfer Jersey Ltd.(Blocks 3 and 4) and WCS (Blocks 1 and 2) each receiving a 42.5% equity share and the Government of Guinea taking a 15% free carry equity stake

(2)WCS is a consortium of Singaporean company, Winning International Group (45%), Weiqiao Aluminium (part of the China Hongqiao Group) (35%) and United Mining Suppliers International (20%). WCS is the holder of Simandou North block 1-2 (with the Government of Guinea holding a 15% interest in the mining vehicle and WCS holding 85%) and associated infrastructure.

(3)The Simfer joint venture comprises Simfer S.A., the holder of Simandou South Blocks 3 & 4, which is owned by the Government of Guinea (15%) and Simfer Jersey Limited (85%). In turn, Simfer Jersey Limited, is a joint venture between the Rio Tinto Group (53%) and Chalco Iron Ore Holdings (CIOH) (47%) – a Chinalco-led joint venture of leading Chinese SOEs (Chinalco (75%), Baowu (20%), China Rail Construction Corporation (CRCC) (2.5%) and China Harbour Engineering Company (CHEC) (2.5%).

If Mayoko (Mayoko Moussondji/Equatorial Resources, because Sapro Mayoko's(Mayoko Lekoumou) ore quality is reportedly poor) is part of the picture , then we'd be looking at

(1) to service Mayoko and ZIOC, AD Ports already in place, port(s) and railway(s) need developing;

(2)

(3) might be a model for the 'ZIOC' and/or 'Mayoko' development/operating consortia, with overall project ownership higher up the chain - eg SWF (egPIF), mining co (eg Ma'aden/Minera), foreign industry/logistics expertise (eg Vale, BaoWu Group, etc)

Whether GLEN would feature as an equity investor (to protect/justify its marketing/royalty rights) is moot....as is how well AD Ports would work with Saudi interests, given the reported rift at MBS/MBZ level...and eventual potential competition for their respective 'green ore' smelters...

Let's see if common sense and risk reduction considerations prevail and encourage a shared/joint approach !

IMO

Maybe time to add Jindal Group to the mix !

Per MM's note .."Jindal Shadeed Iron & Steel has planned a new 6 million mt/year pellet plant in Sohar, scheduled to be operational by the end of 2023, according to contractor Metso Outotec. Jindal Shadeed has a DRI facility supplying the feedstock for long steel production..."

Vale of course already has its own pelletizing facility in Oman, now 100% owned

https://www.omanobserver.om/article/1132745/business/energy/vale-oman-becomes-100-foreign-owned-following-oq-stake-sale

This is Shadeed https://jindalshadeed.com/company-profile.html

part of the Jindal Group

https://www.jindalgroup.com/

that Vale sold its Mozambique assets (coal + railroad) to

https://im-mining.com/2021/12/21/vale-selling-coal-assets-including-moatize-mine-company-indias-jindal-group/

and that is actively pursuing/interfering in iron ore mine acquisitions in Guinea , quietly making a play for the (Mick Davis) Zogota concession

https://www.africaintelligence.com/west-africa/2023/04/21/doumbouya-plans-to-reallocate-zogota-iron-to-indian-tycoon-jindal,

and muddying the waters over 'adjacent' (Friedland) Nimba

https://www.africaintelligence.com/west-africa/2023/05/29/friedland-executives-and-lobbyists-battle-jindal-over-nimba-project.

Apart from Jindal's own African experience with railway operation, I imagine that there's extensive Indian experience of railway construction and/or railway rehabilitation.

So maybe we'd see Saudi/Vale/Jindal exploiting Guinea iron ore for Saudi/Oman (+ private Vale/Jindal facilities) and UAE/Vale/AD Ports/Chinese exploiting Zanaga, for UAE/Oman (+ private Vale) facilities..? How much of an issue GLEN's offtake/marketing/ royalty rights might be as a complicating factor is anybody's guess.

The pressure to start putting stakes in the ground must be building, though.

AFAICS

.."Ex has no interest in SYME apart from bashing it!.."

My interest in SYME is comparing its words/intentions with the actual outcomes...and in pointing out inconvenient facts when others post messages that show either accidental or deliberate misunderstanding.

If you count pointing out facts, usually with a link to the source, so people can see for themselves as 'bashing', that says more about you and your intentions than it does about mine.

Have a great weekend everyone , whatever your PoV.

Life's too short to be small.

Seb's found his phone. Tweets ( or 'X's'?)

"Just came out of Judge Preska's court. Second full day. Nine hours straight. Key takeaways:

1. The main issue today was YPF's formula. What are the dates? What is the appropriate P/E Ratio?

2. Plaintiffs were first at bat with Prof. Fischel.

3. Prof. Fischel did a solid job defending his calculation and what should all the variables of the YPF formula be.

4. Arg. called Dr. Harris who will try to refute Prof. Fischel's calculations. Dr. Harris will finish his deposition on Friday morning. He too looked solid.

5. Argentina also called two very strong witnesses to present their opinions on Argentina Corporate Law and Constitutional Law.

6. Friday is the last day.

7. I don't expect a quick ruling. Judge Preska had too many questions and doubts..."

ATB

Given the 'what's good for Vale is good for Brazil and vice versa' mantra, this can't do any harm.

From today's FT

Brazil to launch ‘most ambitious’ green transition package

Investors welcome bold environmentalist programme from leftwing president.

ATB

Given the 'what's good for Vale is good for Brazil and vice versa' mantra, this can't do any harm.

From today's FT

Brazil to launch ‘most ambitious’ green transition package

Investors welcome bold environmentalist programme from leftwing president.

ATB

At min 10:26 in the presentation, discussing the validated sales pipeline, it sounds to me as though SRT is expecting something to be signed 'in the coming month or so'.

Did I mishear or did he mis-speak ?

It looks as though certain quarters in the US are concerned that Abu Dhabi may already (in its eyes) be in the Chinese camp :

from today's Spectator

.."US officials scrutinised an Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund’s planned $3bn takeover of New York-based Fortress Investment Group over concerns about UAE ties to China..."

Wait until the UAE (and Saudi...and one or two other areas of influence) signs up for BRICS...and the South/south shift gathers momentum.

Thanks for this : it looks as though the wording in earlier news re Saudi asking for a sell-down/sharing right was to accommodate a holding split between PIF and Ma'aden ...and not a possible olive branch to AbuDhabi (Mubadala) in light of recent reports of a falling out between Saudi and the UAE (or , more specifically, MBS and MBZ).

AFAICS

And now Turkey joins the fray...

https://gulfbusiness.com/uae-and-turkey-sign-agreements-worth-dhs50-7bn/#:~:te

Lots of areas of co-operation, including

A Strategic Partnership Framework Agreement signed between the Ministry of Industry and Energy and Natural Resources of Turkey and the Ministry of Investment of the UAE to develop energy and natural resources projects.

Turkey is the biggest steel producer in Europe.

And they're keen to expand their construction sector activities in Africa.

https://www.imtilak.net/en/turkey/news/turki…

$78 billion, the total value of Turkish companies' …

WebFeb 22, 2022 · Since the end of 2021, Turkish contracting companies have implemented about 1,686 projects in the African continent, with a value exceeding $78 billion, and as a result, job opportunities have been …

ATB

For some reason, you chose to omit the sentences that followed :

.."With an estimated $740bn of unsold stock held by US retailers alone, there’s clearly a huge market to target.

But I’d rather invest in an established firm. Supply@ME’s path to profitability is unproven and the company may have to raise more money.

I believe it has a long way to go before it justifies its current stock market valuation.

And I know from bitter experience that just because a company’s attracting lots of attention, it doesn’t necessarily make it a good investment..."

HTH

Meanwhile, Friday 21st July depeches de brazzaville reports that Brazzaville has

followed neighbouring Gabon - after discussion with timber traders in June/ July - in extending licences only to 31st August , after which an export ban will come into force.

, after which a ban will be enforced

Good spot, MM!

CMEC is already familiar with C-B, being responsible for

- Lioussou 4 x 30 Mw hydropower project

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/CHINA-MACHINERY-ENGINEERI-12212398/news/China-Machinery-Engineering-Supporting-Power-Transmission-Project-of-Congo-s-Liouesso-Hydropower-S-24559416/; and, closer to 'home'

-Pointe Noire water treatment/distribution facilities

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/CHINA-MACHINERY-ENGINEERI-12212398/news/China-Machinery-Engineering-Corporation-Wins-USD-246-17-Million-Contract-for-Construction-of-New-Wat-38783643/

More specifically, it's also principal contractor for this port expansion project , in Bulgaria (part of the Bridge and Roads initiative)

https://bnr.bg/en/post/101110733/chinese-construction-company-to-expand-varna-port

Maybe, baby...?

ATB

Good spot, MM!

CMEC is already familiar with C-B, being responsible for

- Lioussou 4 x 30 Mw hydropower project

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/CHINA-MACHINERY-ENGINEERI-12212398/news/China-Machinery-Engineering-Supporting-Power-Transmission-Project-of-Congo-s-Liouesso-Hydropower-S-24559416/; and, closer to 'home'

-Pointe Noire water treatment/distribution facilities

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/CHINA-MACHINERY-ENGINEERI-12212398/news/China-Machinery-Engineering-Corporation-Wins-USD-246-17-Million-Contract-for-Construction-of-New-Wat-38783643/

More specifically, it's also principal contractor for this port expansion project , in Bulgaria (part of the Bridge and Roads initiative)

https://bnr.bg/en/post/101110733/chinese-construction-company-to-expand-varna-port

Maybe, baby...?

ATB