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Upcoming newsflow :

Imminent : 22-24 August BRICs summit, possible accession of Argentina, Saudi and UAE;

Three weeks : 13 September BUR H2 results (academic);

Sometime : ??? Judge Preska decision (historic...in another sense!);

Nine weeks : 22 October Election Argentina - President, VPresident, Congress and provincial governors....(wild card).

= 'Interesting times', as the Chinese are supposed to be fond of saying .

ATB and GLA

And Lula may find himself conflicted on another front :

With the BRICS summit kicking off tomorrow, looking at possible accession of Argentina, Saudi and UAE (amongst others), this from Argentina's answer to Trump, Presidential candidate Javier Milei :

Ashmore comment :

.."Argentina:

Following Javier Milei’s success in the presidential primary election called PASO (Primarias Abiertas Simultáneas y Obligatorias) last week, his new-found position as a front-runner in next October’s general election has provided a greater platform for his message.

In an interview with Bloomberg, Milei highlighted his opposition to relations with China, refusal to work with “socialists” (including Brazilian President Lula), and his radical economic policy such as the dollarising of the economy and closing down the central bank.

He also pledged to significantly reduce public spending to tackle large fiscal deficits, which he considers “immoral” and, more prosaically, to “avoid a default”.

While the point of principle on deficits will please market participants, the radical plans to scrap the peso have been dismissed as unworkable given Argentina’s low level of reserves, and have generally increased the degree of risk and uncertainty for holders of the local currency..."

With this conundrum posed for Brazil by its LatAm rival Argentina, Russia hobbled by Ukraine, China hobbled by economic slowdown and South Africa hobbled by general mismanagement and corruption, there may be more talk than substance this week.

'Interesting times', indeed !

Or maybe : 'the Eskenazi exploited the system, then the system turned round and exploited them ?'

Some debate elsewhere re the morality of BUR et al pressing its case , where the claim will effectively end up being paid by the populace-at-large and not the principal actors.

They aren't all on the Argentinian government/politicians' side, either : there's a case for arguing that the Eskenazi family (Petersen Group), whose rights BUR has successfully litigated, contributed to the situation in the first place...

If you really want to get into the moral ambiguities at stake here, the Petersen shareholding itself seems to have been acquired on unusually favourable terms (including vendor financing and a disproportionate say in management : one Eskenazi as ViceChair, another(Sebastian) as President and CEO; the Eskenazi family being close friends of the Kirchners, see below

'https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renationalization_of_YPF' target='window'>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renationalization_of_YPF

.."The Petersen Group

The largest minority shareholder, the Petersen Group, held a 25% stake at the time of the renationalization, and had financed their initial purchase of 15% of the stock in 2007 with a vendor's loan from Repsol for €1.5 billion. The chairman and majority owner of the Petersen Group, Enrique Eskenazi, was close to [by then]President Néstor Kirchner, who supported Eskenazi's bid to become YPF's principal Argentine stockholder. Eskenazi benefited from a dividend distribution rate at YPF of 90%, which allowed the Group to repay its vendor's loan in installments."

This high payout rate was the proximate reason for YPF's serial years of under-investment, one of the principal arguments for re-nationalisation......

And going back to the original privatisation, we find this

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_in_Argentina

Néstor Kirchner

Néstor Kirchner, then governor of the Province of Santa Cruz, and his wife, Congresswoman Cristina Kirchner, "intensely and successfully lobbied President Carlos Menem in 1992 to sell the state oil company YPF". Upon its privatization in 1993, the federal government paid Santa Cruz Province US$654 million in long-outstanding royalties owed by YPF (minus a US$100 million tax debt). Governor Kirchner transferred the funds to Credit Suisse and other foreign banks in 2001. Kirchner became president in 2003, and pledged to repatriate the funds. Amid delays, a civil suit was filed against Kirchner in 2004; but it was dismissed in 2005 by the judge, who was Kirchner's nephew-in-law.

The Jewish Chronicle's take on the whole affair sums things up quite well

hxxps://www.thejc.com/news/world/billionaire-family-s-oil-stake-is-nationalised-1.33188

" It's complicated."

ATB....and GLA

Thanks for this MM.

There's still AFAICS a disconnect between this academic summary of various experimental models and VALE's decade of research/investment into dry processing , with subset FDMS stepped up post tailings disaster(s) in the last few years.

https://im-mining.com/2020/02/07/vale-build-new-steel-plant-boost-dry-iron-ore-processing-aims/

Vale is happy to name its pilot plants -existing and proposed- for FDMS , with investment scale and projected capacity, I couldn't find a similar granular (boom boom!) detail from the Chinese, hence my comment.

To be clear, I fully accept the thrust of your argument re China, merely quibbling its FDMS capacity (maybe a Red herring?) whilst acknowledging that the Chinese appear to have other beneficiation capabilities.

ATB

thanks for this assessment.

(1) the key difference between reko diq and zanaga, afaics, is that the former was already 'wholly baked' ie had a credible/workable project management and ownership structure (with host country approvals) in place at end 2022, with ma'aden's recent/subsequent involvement being ('merely') potentially the icing on the cake.

https://www.barrick.com/english/operations/reko-diq/default.aspx

.."reko diq is owned 50% by barrick, 25% by three federal state-owned enterprises, 15% by the province of balochistan on a fully funded basis and 10% by the province of balochistan on a free carried basis.

the reconstitution of the reko diq project was completed in december 2022 — a key step in progressing the development of reko diq into a world-class, long-life mine which would substantially expand barrick’s strategically significant copper portfolio and benefit its ****stani stakeholders for generations to come.

barrick is now updating the project’s 2010 feasibility and 2011 feasibility expansion studies. this should be completed by 2024, with 2028 targeted for first production..."

so ma'aden is hoping to join/gatecrash a deal (providing the 'easy bit' , the money) for a project that barrick/****stan had basically already arranged 8 months ago. so far as we're aware, zioc is only at the preliminary stage(s) of getting a consortium together to take over (ownership and) development of its zanaga concession.

(2) dfms has the attraction of being a vale project, with good ip (patents in 59 countries) but still seemingly at its early stages, with so far little adoption afaics and nothing specifically chinese , again afaics.

otoh there are teasing references to some type of dry beneficiation process developed by baowu /riotinto that works on magnetite deposits in the pilbara.

frustratingly tantalising !

august is a slow month, esp in the gulf countries, let's hope things get moving thereafter.

atb

Great find! And from the same source

https://www.mining-journal.com/partners/partner-content/1457714/morocco-sa-best-positioned-to-capitalise-on-saudi-mining-push

.."n terms of red flags when considering partnerships, Khama said evidence of poorly run state-owned entities would rank near the top of Riyadh's list.

"What is really needed is to bring the private sector but also very skillful, experienced large scale miners and metal producers who can do this. The temptation is always in Africa, at least in some quarters, to see state not just as the owner but also as the investor. The result has been disastrous. This to me is one of the single most important thing we want to avoid. Let us regulate, let us govern transparency, let us negotiate and push the envelope. But once done, let us hand it over to the private sector and let them get on with it," said Khama..."

That would be the philosophy behind Little Den's PPP program, basically...

AFAICS

Jared's latest thoughts

.."So Milei is getting a lot of press these days, especially out of Bloomberg, how

Argentina is going to be a libertarian economics laboratory, and all that.

Interesting stuff. In this case, TDD was a leading indicator—we were talking

about Milei six months ago.

It is also possible that he will lose the election.

It is also possible that he will lose the election to Massa.

There is a lot of risk here. I’d love to YOLO these trades through the election, but I might not. If Massa wins—and there is a high probability of that happening—these stocks could be own 30-50%.

If you’re looking at a line chart of GGAL, for instance, it’s still within the uptrend.

For sure, this election will go to a runoff. As it stands right now, it will

go to a runoff between Milei and Bullrich—which is the best-case scenario.

If it comes down to Milei and Massa, that would make me very, very nervous. The most recent article I read had Milei saying that he would not end (at least, at the outset) welfare that supports about 40% of the population.

He may be a libertarian, but he is not stupid.

This has the potential to be a really good trade, or a really disappointing

trade.

The charts are still working in our favor..."

NAI, DYOR etc etc

Https://valorinternational.globo.com/business/news/2023/05/07/abu-dhabis-adnoc-joins-apollo-to-acquire-braskem.ghtml

A $ 7.6Bn transaction.

AbuDhabi and Apollo have teamed up to bid agst local (Brazilian) rivals, including another (apart from Vale) Lula favourite, Petrobras.

It'll be interesting to see whether 'resource nationalism' or cash prevail.

.."Another source said that Petrobras, under the Lula administration, could be an obstacle to the deal, as the government is in favor of strengthening the Brazilian petrochemical company – Braskem is the result of a merger supported by President Lula at the time. “We have to see how Petrobras will position itself.”..

Https://valorinternational.globo.com/business/news/2023/05/07/abu-dhabis-adnoc-joins-apollo-to-acquire-braskem.ghtml

A $ 7.6Bn transaction.

AbuDhabi and Apollo have teamed up to bid agst local (Brazilian) rivals, including another (apart from Vale) Lula favourite, Petrobras.

It'll be interesting to see whether 'resource nationalism' or cash prevail.

.."Another source said that Petrobras, under the Lula administration, could be an obstacle to the deal, as the government is in favor of strengthening the Brazilian petrochemical company – Braskem is the result of a merger supported by President Lula at the time. “We have to see how Petrobras will position itself.”..

Hi Vet10,

Qatar enters the frame.....and Little Den met with S Korea the day before....

The investors looking at "the feasibility of the projects that [they] plan to carry out" may be ' based in' , but not necessarily OF Qatar, of course.

C-B certainly seems to be getting (or seeking) a lot of attention these days.

Let's hope it leads to something for ZIOC!

ATB

Hi Vet10,

Qatar enters the frame.....and Little Den met with S Korea the day before....

C-B certainly seems to be getting (or seeking) a lot of attention these days.

Let's hope it leads to something for ZIOC!

ATB

This the Turkish Ulsan : various mining activities, nothing specifically iron-ore AFAICS

https://ulsan.com.tr/faaliyet-alani-detay-ulsan-maden-14

This the Turkish Ulsan : various mining activities, nothing specifically iron-ore AFAICS

https://ulsan.com.tr/faaliyet-alani-detay-ulsan-maden-14

There are 2 x Ulsans, one the industrial powerhouse of S Korea, and an Aramco investment location

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ulsan

The other a Turkish steelco

Cem Tekizbaş - General Manager - ULSAN …

https://tr.linkedin.com/in/cemtekizbas

I graduated from Middle East Techical University in 1988. Since then I have been working in this field for 35 years. I was privilidged to manage biggest mining company in the Turkey. This experiance gave me expertise in many different mine deposits.

Works For: ULSAN CONGO MIN…Job Title: General ManagerLocation: Kongo Cumhuriyeti

Either way, there seems to be a new player in town...and a plausible co-user of infrastructure.

There are 2 x Ulsans, one the industrial powerhouse of S Korea, and an Aramco investment location

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ulsan

The other a Turkish steelco

Cem Tekizbaş - General Manager - ULSAN …

https://tr.linkedin.com/in/cemtekizbas

I graduated from Middle East Techical University in 1988. Since then I have been working in this field for 35 years. I was privilidged to manage biggest mining company in the Turkey. This experiance gave me expertise in many different mine deposits.

Works For: ULSAN CONGO MIN…Job Title: General ManagerLocation: Kongo Cumhuriyeti

Either way, there seems to be a new player in town...and a plausible co-user of infrastructure.

Never mind little chickens, it seems that there's a big turkey in the 'hood....

https://lesechos-congobrazza.com/economie/9516-mayoko-le-gisement-de-fer-qui-dispose-de-reserves-estimees-a-917-millions-de-tonnes-attribue-a-la-societe-ulsan-mining-congo-sau

..."Pierre Oba, Minister of State, Minister of Mining Industries and Geology, submitted to the members of the Council of Ministers, Saturday, August 12, 2023, for consideration a draft decree awarding to the company ULSAN Mining Congo SAU an operating permit for iron, known as the "Mayoko-Moussondji" permit.

Minister of State Oba clarified that the applicant company submitted an application for a permit to operate an iron deposit in the indicated area on October 17, 2022. This permit has fallen back into the public domain, because it had previously been withdrawn from the company Congo Mining, then holder of the said permit.

This iron deposit has estimated reserves of 917 million tonnes, of which 38.5 million tonnes are directly exploitable.

With a lifespan of 30 years, the annual production forecasts of this deposit are 300,000 tons per year for the first phase and 16.5 million tons per year in a second phase that would exploit hard rock.

The applicant company undertakes to carry out without delay, that is to say as soon as the permit is obtained, the environmental and social impact studies as well as the feasibility study; The implementation of this exploitation will create about 700 jobs, including 600 for the national workforce.

Finally, the overall investment of the project, including the specific infrastructure required, is estimated at 15 billion US dollars.

This project is perfectly in line with the economic diversification policy implemented by the public authorities and will allow even more dynamic cooperation between Congo and Turkey, represented here by the applicant company.

After examination and discussion, the Council of Ministers adopted the draft decree awarding ULSAN Mining Congo SAU a mining permit for iron, known as the "Mayoko-Moussondji" permit..."

This is the higher quality ore Mayoko (not Sapro's), held by Congo Mining and taken from Equatorial Resources, currently subject of international litigation, see

https://www.miningweekly.com/article/equatorial-resources-makes-11bn-claim-against-congo-2023-03-16

.."The Congolese government has until August to respond to the claims.

Equatorial has meanwhile told shareholders that the company is evaluating the merits of a litigation funding agreement, which would provide the company with non-recourse funding to cover the legal fees and other costs of the arbitration against Congo..."

Turkey's new ambassador has just (per depeches) presented his credentials.....

Interesting!

Never mind little chickens, it seems that there's a big turkey in the 'hood....

https://lesechos-congobrazza.com/economie/9516-mayoko-le-gisement-de-fer-qui-dispose-de-reserves-estimees-a-917-millions-de-tonnes-attribue-a-la-societe-ulsan-mining-congo-sau

..."Pierre Oba, Minister of State, Minister of Mining Industries and Geology, submitted to the members of the Council of Ministers, Saturday, August 12, 2023, for consideration a draft decree awarding to the company ULSAN Mining Congo SAU an operating permit for iron, known as the "Mayoko-Moussondji" permit.

Minister of State Oba clarified that the applicant company submitted an application for a permit to operate an iron deposit in the indicated area on October 17, 2022. This permit has fallen back into the public domain, because it had previously been withdrawn from the company Congo Mining, then holder of the said permit.

This iron deposit has estimated reserves of 917 million tonnes, of which 38.5 million tonnes are directly exploitable.

With a lifespan of 30 years, the annual production forecasts of this deposit are 300,000 tons per year for the first phase and 16.5 million tons per year in a second phase that would exploit hard rock.

The applicant company undertakes to carry out without delay, that is to say as soon as the permit is obtained, the environmental and social impact studies as well as the feasibility study; The implementation of this exploitation will create about 700 jobs, including 600 for the national workforce.

Finally, the overall investment of the project, including the specific infrastructure required, is estimated at 15 billion US dollars.

This project is perfectly in line with the economic diversification policy implemented by the public authorities and will allow even more dynamic cooperation between Congo and Turkey, represented here by the applicant company.

After examination and discussion, the Council of Ministers adopted the draft decree awarding ULSAN Mining Congo SAU a mining permit for iron, known as the "Mayoko-Moussondji" permit..."

This is the higher quality ore Mayoko (not Sapro's), held by Congo Mining and taken from Equatorial Resources, currently subject of international litigation, see

https://www.miningweekly.com/article/equatorial-resources-makes-11bn-claim-against-congo-2023-03-16

.."The Congolese government has until August to respond to the claims.

Equatorial has meanwhile told shareholders that the company is evaluating the merits of a litigation funding agreement, which would provide the company with non-recourse funding to cover the legal fees and other costs of the arbitration against Congo..."

Turkey's new ambassador has just (per depeches) presented his credentials.....

Interesting!

.."they're saying Milei is in favour of privatising YPF and the national airline!.."

It would be pretty ironic / karma if BUR was paid out in YPF shares.....

More seriously, I could imagine an SWF being interested in picking up an IOU from Argentina for BUR's claim if it could use this as 'currency' for some industrial, mineral or agricultural investments in-country.

Countries, after all, can think in longer, strategic, political trade-off terms than normal investors or companies.

Interesting times.

History doesn't always rhyme, but this account of what Milton Friedman and 'the Chicago boys' achieved in and for Chile (in both economic and political > democracy terms)is - maybe - instructive...and certainly interesting.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miracle_of_Chile

ATB