Member Info for extrader

Hopefully, this will get some folks' attention . OCN has just become more interesting as a 'South- south' logistics play, IMO.

President Ramaphosa . Johannesburg II Declaration adopted . The XV Summit has adopted guiding principles on the BRICS EXPANSION.Following countries invited to join .

Argentina

Egypt

Ethiopia

Iran

Saudi Arabia

UAE

To take effect from the 1st of January 2024

https://twitter.com/bricsza/status/1694619430435606808?s=46&t=z4xNhdJMfh7lQTckBCIJuw

ATB

.."Announcing the development of Zanaga would be a great first collaboration between several member states.."

With Essar Group and Jindal Group sniffing around Africa and Gulf, you could add India to the mix....as customer and miner respectively.

And AD Ports' PN concession - facing Argentina and Brazil - has probably just gone up a bit in value, too.

Time to get those picks and shovels working, guys.

ATB

FWLIW, I don’t have a dog in this fight.

The commodity cycle is an historic and recognised phenomenon.

Allied to that general observation, China (the ‘motor’) is visibly slowing down.

OTOH, there is now clearly a premium for ‘green ore’, so - whilst overall demand may fall - a lower price will make ZIOC and others less profitable but arguably relatively more attractive.

When diesel prices fall, I ‘treat’ my car to premium fuel more frequently.

What do others do ?

GLA and ATB

Brazil 🇧🇷 #AHORA | The Brazilian press slips that the #BRICS will incorporate Argentina, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Iran into the bloc.

https://twitter.com/periodistassin2/status/1694541366817120632?s=46&t=z4xNhdJMfh7lQTckBCIJuw

TBC , but interesting if true.

Late report , from yesterday.

All very frustrating....and irritating.

AT keeping schtum doesn't help.

Hi Jiving,

Agree it's an odd situation. Taking each in turn :

- Shard : Might have 'gone rogue' and is front-running and/or acting for a third party ? Seems far-fetched (and surely ZIOC would be monitoring closely), but Shard keeps some interesting company . See

https://www.ft.com/content/0e21e6d0-829b-43c4-9332-92dc0115b4f1

H2O Asset Management: illiquid love

The €1.4bn question about a French fund manager’s link to enigmatic financier Lars Windhorst

or

https://www.ft.com/content/b8256dd0-f4b8-11e9-a79c-bc9acae3b654

Shard: the London broker at the heart of Lars Windhorst’s network

Controversial German financier has enjoyed years of support from little-known brokerage,

for details of some - allegedly - questionable /'fast' business and accounting practices. And there's more re Shard where that came from. 'Google is your friend'.

- GLEN : Motives ? as you speculate. As a practical matter, it could only sell about 1.5m (or buy 4.5m, cf. MM's observation) before passing through a declarable whole % number: it has RNS'd 286, 340, 379 or 48.26% as at 16 Dec 2022. Given the material implications of any change in holding from a market perception PoV, I can't believe GLEN would risk non- or delayed disclosure.

- Third party/A.N.Other : Most of the 'old guard' holders are now (inconveniently for us) below the disclosable 3% level, it could be one or more of them, disenchanted and faced with some unrelated financial pressure. Elphick's other publicly quoted vehicle, Gem Diamonds (GEMD) is coincidentally at an all time low (16p against a £10 high); I'm sure he's not on the breadline personally, but some of his fellow/follower-investors may be feeling a bit stretched ?

Keith Everitt had 17.3m as at Jun 2022 (2.85%) and Julian Higgins 4.5m (0.74%) at the same date.

I'm not sure we'll ever find out.It's certainly irritating and frustrating, in equal measure.

ATB

I guess it depends what the 'position ante' is;->

TAG is totally opaque at present, AFAIAA. To that extent, anything tangible will be an improvement.

Some of the cash (£8m, in stages, AIUI, will make its way to the new UK operation/subsidiary, where there will, some time after the event, be an opportunity to see an auditor confirmation of what has transpired.

Page 1 of the admission document filing refers to

.."sale and purchase agreements [for 17.5million shares] between RegTech Italy and 12 independent third-parties ("Purchasers"), entered into prior to the date of this Prospectus (the "SPAs"),.."

So - on the face of it, at least - your suggestion re DW as destination of the shares is wrong.

ATB

The shares can't all go to DW.

From your quote :

.." none of the resultant Shareholders will hold more than or equal to 3% of the Company's issued share capital on Admission..."

HTH

Sigh! Some things don't change .

Whatever happened to chat rule m ? [no one shall] restrict or inhibit any other user from using the boards ??

.."This is what I wrote a while back, when TAG first mentioned this business line :

" I think you'll find that TAG's RegTechOpen Project (RTOP) role is as a re-seller :

(1) RTOP appear in the Gartner survey as ' Vendors' of Orbit 4BC (='Business continuity)

(2) These people hxxps://www.glgroup.it/about-us/ say that they own Orbit Italy :

.."Founded in 2000 and acquired in 2011 by GL Group S.p.A., Orbit Italy is a BC consulting firm IT service provider, and software development leader. Our team of highly skilled and certified experts has extensive experience in business continuity, disaster recovery, and risk assessment process management..."

and here hxxps://www.glgroup.it/orbit-4bc/

that Orbit-4BC is one of THEIR product lines; and, scrolling down on that page

that the MIR3 Business Continuity Management Service (that TAG's RTOP shows on its website) is "distributed by Orbit Italy, the only Italian company who can offer pre and post-sale technical support.."

And , in response to a quibble 'but look at their partners'...

.."my suggestion to you, based on the info/links I provided, is that the household names that you and RTOP tag as 'partners' are the companies who manufacture kit/develop software products and RTOP's 'clients' are the companies that they (re)sell stuff to...

In other words, a pretty tenuous arm's length commercial relationship, unlikely to be a significant business 'driver'.

That's what it looks like to me, anyway..."

'Nothing new under the sun', as they say. The Prospectus should make for interesting reading..."

Hi Peakhope,

You obviously missed this bit

.."This is what I wrote a while back*, when TAG first mentioned this business line :..."

Some time in late 2020.

Nearly 3 years ago, it seems.

Wow!

ATB

Following up on this point :

"It's also interesting to note that a project with an NPV10 of US$ 511million (itself based on an MOP price barely half the current market price) is carried on BSRT's books at an implied (whole co) value of (£4.8m/6.6%) = £ 73 million..."

With the MOP price of $282 vs 'market' $ 500 and a $:£ rate of 1.25, the calculation becomes

(511/282)* 500 /1.25 = £ 730m, vs BSRT's carrying valuation of (spookily, exactly) £ 73m, ie 1/10th of NPV10.

For future reference...and my own expectations management.

Which coincides (?) with a letter of support just sent to KP2

"The Minister of Mines has written a letter to Kore Potash that pledges the Ministry and the Republic of Congo's support for Kore's development of its projects at Kola and Dougou ("Projects")..."

It's the 'Kanga can go' - Congo conga....

Which coincides (?) with a letter of support just sent to KP2

"The Minister of Mines has written a letter to Kore Potash that pledges the Ministry and the Republic of Congo's support for Kore's development of its projects at Kola and Dougou ("Projects")..."

It's the 'Kanga can go' - Congo conga....

The latest depeches carries a story re signing of an exploitation license for this potash deposit (the third K, after Kore and KP2, not sure how they stack up relative to each other).

This one (naturally) claims it's the best, both as to size and location (practically on the beach), just up from Pointe Indienne.

https://kangapotash.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Kanga-Potash-Corp-Presentation-01Nov2022.pdf

It's privately owned, but Baker Steel Resources Trust (BSRT) has a stake. For FYE 2022, it said

Kanga Investments Ltd (“Kanga”)

Kanga is a private company which holds the Kanga potash project, in the Republic of the Congo.

Investment: 56,042 ordinary shares (6.6%) valued at £4.8 million

Kanga Investments Ltd (“Kanga”) completed a positive Definitive Feasibility Study (“DFS”) in 2020 on its Kanga Potash project in the Republic of Congo for a mine producing 600,000 tonnes per annum of Muriate of Phosphate (“MOP”). The DFS economic model gave a Net Present Value at a 10% discount rate (NPV10) of US$511 million with an IRR of 22% based on an MOP price of US$282 per tonne compared to the current price of around US$500 per tonne. In addition, there is potential for the mine to be expanded on a modular basis up to 2.4m tonnes per annum over 30 years as set out in the DFS. Kanga continues to have advanced discussions regarding the financing or sale of the project. In the second half of 2022 the government published a decree awarding the Kanga Exploitation/Mining Licence to Kanga, a key condition of the potential acquirors. ..."

It'll be interesting to see which, if any, of the 3 potash projects progresses, given Congo's competitive advantages.

It's also interesting to note that a project with an NPV10 of US$ 511million (itself based on an MOP price barely half the current market price) is carried on BSRT's books at an implied (whole co) value of (£4.8m/6.6%) = £ 73 million.

The latest depeches carries a story re signing of an exploitation license for this potash deposit (the third K, after Kore and KP2, not sure how they stack up relative to each other).

This one (naturally) claims it's the best, both as to size and location (practically on the beach), just up from Pointe Indienne.

https://kangapotash.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Kanga-Potash-Corp-Presentation-01Nov2022.pdf

It's privately owned, but Baker Steel Resources Trust (BSRT) has a stake. For FYE 2022, it said

Kanga Investments Ltd (“Kanga”)

Kanga is a private company which holds the Kanga potash project, in the Republic of the Congo.

Investment: 56,042 ordinary shares (6.6%) valued at £4.8 million

Kanga Investments Ltd (“Kanga”) completed a positive Definitive Feasibility Study (“DFS”) in 2020 on its Kanga Potash project in the Republic of Congo for a mine producing 600,000 tonnes per annum of Muriate of Phosphate (“MOP”). The DFS economic model gave a Net Present Value at a 10% discount rate (NPV10) of US$511 million with an IRR of 22% based on an MOP price of US$282 per tonne compared to the current price of around US$500 per tonne. In addition, there is potential for the mine to be expanded on a modular basis up to 2.4m tonnes per annum over 30 years as set out in the DFS. Kanga continues to have advanced discussions regarding the financing or sale of the project. In the second half of 2022 the government published a decree awarding the Kanga Exploitation/Mining Licence to Kanga, a key condition of the potential acquirors. ..."

It'll be interesting to see which, if any, of the 3 potash projects progresses, given Congo's competitive advantages.

It's also interesting to note that a project with an NPV10 of US$ 511million (itself based on an MOP price barely half the current market price) is carried on BSRT's books at an implied (whole co) value of (£4.8m/6.6%) = £ 73 million.

Good find, MM.

Its name 'Bahrain Steel' is a bit misleading :

Foulath’s shareholders are Gulf Investment Corporation G.S.C, Kuwait, which is the Company’s 50% shareholder and is owned equally by the six governments of the GCC. They also include Qatar Steel Company (Q.S.C.), Qatar, Gulf Cables & Electrical Industries Co. K.S.C., Kuwait, National Industries Group Holding S.A.K., Kuwait and Kuwait Foundry Co. S.A.K., Kuwait.

1. Gulf Investment Corporation G.S.C. Kuwait 50%

2. Qatar Steel Company (Q.S.C.) Qatar 25%

3. Gulf Cables & Electrical Industries Co. K.S.C. Kuwait 10%

4. National Industries Group Holding S.A.K. Kuwait 10%

5. Kuwait Foundry Co. S.A.K. Kuwait 5%

So that's added Kuwait to the list of 'interested' Gulfies....

Bahrain Steel is the largest DR merchant pelletizing producer in the world and the only one located in the Middle East.

The only negative is that a lot of its current supply is under longterm contract from AngloAmerican , IIRC.

JSW Steel, part of the Jindal Group, is parking its tanks on GLEN's lawn, apparently trying to put together a counter offer for Teck Resources' coal business.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/indias-jsw-steel-considering-bid-stake-teck-coal-unit-bloomberg-news-2023-07-15/

Jindal Group is also quietly making a play for the Zogota concession in Guinea

https://www.africaintelligence.com/west-africa/2023/04/21/doumbouya-plans-to-reallocate-zogota-iron-to-indian-tycoon-jindal,

and muddying the waters over 'adjacent' Nimba

https://www.africaintelligence.com/west-africa/2023/05/29/friedland-executives-and-lobbyists-battle-jindal-over-nimba-project,

and Jindal previously acquired Vale's coal, railway AND PORT interests in Mozambique

https://miningconnection.com/longwall/news/article/vulcan_to_acquire_vales_coal_assets_in_mozambique_for_270_million/

.."A logistics corridor, which links Moatize to the port of Nacala, consists of rail and port infrastructures. With 912km distance, the railroad passes through two countries Mozambique and Malawi.

With deep waters and multi-use standard, the port infrastructure is designed to receive and export about 18 million tonnes of coal. It is also used for general cargo and especially daily passenger transportation.."

GLEN clearly has bigger fish to fry than lil' ol' ZIOC.....but it might be a useful card to play in any 'talks about talks' between the rival bidders for TECK.

Oops! a 'senior moment'....AlJaber , more pertinently, is also Minister of Industry...

.."Adnoc, led since 2016 by Sultan al-Jaber,.."

This would be the same Sultan Al Jaber that is heading up COP 28...and recently joined the Belem 3 basins knees-up with Lula of Brazil and Big Den as special invitee.

We never did find out how DSN got there...