Thank you L7.
Yes Magnus has 3x frame 5 Turbine gensets, so flat out probably consume ~100MW, but maybe some redundancy.
It’s more straightforward to infer cash flow as you have shown and that’s quite an impressive step up in gas cash flow this year - ~10% of outstanding debt and ~20% market cap.
I wonder what the other 95% of enq production will contribute alongside that!
Can someone help with what % of production is gas? I have used 5% but seem to remember there was some discussion around Magnus pass through being included in that?
Any gas that is unhedged will be giving us a boost while we work through those oil hedges.
Since this is a quick straw poll. I rarely post, but believe in thorough research and backing yourself, rather than diversification and insipid results. I have over 1m shares and won’t be selling at this price, can’t believe others would settle for less than 50p right now.
Thanks to all who post well informed and constructive research on here!
Just in case anyone else was sleeping yesterday too (I missed this) and to change the subject.
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/302074/exxonmobil-sale-uk-north-sea-neo-in-1billion-deal/
Personally I think we dodged a bullet, this would have been an expensive distraction for ENQ and there are more bird names in the mix which apparently causes issues ;-)
Putting to one side the irritation of another equity raise (which I hope to be part of through a RI) this acquisition will likely prove to be a smart one in light of the broader picture.
CNOOC's activities in the South China Sea have led to sanctions being placed on them in the US, and the UK will likely tighten their aproach to Chinese investment in the future due to human rights issues etc. If there is a forced sale of CNOOC/ Nexen assets, this deal leaves Enquest with an inside track to take the role of operator and possibly grow their stake with an understanding of their way of working and value.
In the short term the tax losses can be used and it reduces the reliance on a small number of producing assets and refinances the RCF which was hanging over us.
The equity raise does suggest that a cash deal for EP is not imminent, although a farm in would be prefered anyway to increase production and further reduce risk to single asset issues, so I am relaxed so long as something is in the pipeline to use this asset!
No, unsurprisingly the oil industry has taken this H&S issue slightly more seriously than the rest of the country. The rapid and thorough response to the recent EP case at Nigg attests to this.
Maybe a 5:1 stock split announcement on Thursday is all we need ;-)
Not for the first time oil is up and enq is down. How much longer can that go on for?
With insights like this, let’s hope you leave it longer than 6months next time.
With respect to the uk sector in general, I will agree that no, they are not “the best”, but they are certainly good enough. I’ve heard the same said of Premier, Repsol Sinopec, Perenco and Apache. I would say Equinor/BP and Shell are often considered “the best” but are they as efficient?
As for kraken, If enquest had gone with anyone other than bargain basement Bumi, they would probably not be here now. Good call in my book and I don’t mind that it can “only” take 40kboepd, so long as they manage the fields in the right way. The amount of oil hasn’t changed, just the length of time to get it out.
Very profound.
A few months ago kraken acceptance was all that was discussed on this board, I may have missed it, but now that it’s here it doesn’t seem to have been mentioned...
I’m fairness I think L3 and Indy are very smart. They are using the language of impartiality, and are presenting selective facts. I’m sure they really like enq (otherwise why bother posting) but are feeling they don’t own enough coming into the results this week (after which I doubt we will see the thirties again). The obvious thing to do in that case is to scare a board that is generally well regarded and hoover up the shares that drop out of that. Do your own research kids. With an annual T/O of ~£1.2bn going forward who is serious about not having £270m available. Yes it’s been tight in the past with deals being required with creditors, but not so much now. For the last 12 months this stock has been an existential question that would result in a share price of either £0 or >£1. Arguing whether it’s worth 30p or 40p is a moot point imho. Time will tell...
Dropped to where it was on 26th July - the facts are unchanged from then, the excitement since then was pre-results fluff.
Clearly the guys at Foxton's have new shiny suits and have given a good story to the market - maybe if Enquest got new overalls and communicated a little more this would have a similar effect ;-)
Leaky announcements yet again? ...
AKGold:- Unfortunately the price will be what someone is prepared to pay for it.
Mr Ergen Plays poker, he understands people and he knows that people are emotional.
Not many months ago people were often saying that ISAT would need a bid of £10-£12 to even get looked at, the expectation was that £15+ would be needed to take it away. In establishing a "failed" bid at a very low level Mr E has taken the narrative towards a "fair" value being <~£8/share.
In short the more we worry about what the share price is this week or next, the easier it makes it for this very intelligent and ruthless player to buy this gem of a company at a knockdown price and take the future value for himself. The BOD should think long term to maintain their position within this potentially very lucrative market, they should not be worrying about what the share price is next week/month (however frustrating the roller coaster may be). And for that matter neither should we as the business plan is built on a longer term time frame than that.
IMHO however - you only have to look at the share ownership distribution (https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/profile?s=ISAT:LSE) to see that >50% of the shares are with 10 institutions so it is these who will make the decisions, and given the opportunity to make 30+% profit with very little effort, the cynic in me thinks that most institutions will accept Mr Ergen's new, greatly improved offer.
Having watched this board for a few months I have seen a lot of comments about algo manipulation keeping the share price down. I have also seen elsewhere that Baillie Gifford have been adding substantially to their pile. These guys are no mugs so I've I have taken advantage of the lower share price and followed their lead.
Now I've loaded up I'll be looking for those algo chaps to find another share to play with!
Thanks to all for the hard work and research that is shared on here. Looking back at tanker watch gives a good picture of momentum being built up by Enquest.
Good luck all!
For the uninitiated in the group, could someone summarise what a “Repairer Spike” is please.