shaeprophets article 12 Aug 2015 12:42
released yesterday. I'm not invested but thought it may be of interest.
"Steve Moore previously commented on AIM-listed WANdisco plc (WAND) HERE (‘after the 2015 Q2 sales update, it’s forecast reduction time yet again!’), including noting forecasts of net cash reducing to $6.2 million at the year-end and an $8.5 million net debt position at the end of next year, with there currently a $10 million revolving credit facility in place with HSBC to March 2017. If this balance sheet position was not too close for comfort already, we now have reason to question the exact nature of the HSBC facility…
The August 2014 RNS of the facility saw WANdisco Chief Financial Officer, Paul Harrison, comment that “the reliability, predictability and high growth potential of our subscription-based business model enabled us to secure this credit facility on attractive terms”. We now have reason to believe that there is more to this than it originally appears and ask is the facility reliant on certain subscription-based business?
We are told that this is not an overdraft but merely a facility that can be used for working capital on certain large contracts.
The cash flow trend in conjunction with recent progress having been far from being anything to get investors partying about (researcher Edison admitting “our estimates assume a substantial acceleration in momentum in the big data business and a recovery in Application Lifecycle Management”) makes our question of utmost significance.
Edison sees year end (calendar 2015) net cash of $6.2 million but year end 2016 net debt of $8.5 million. But if that debt can be used only for specific projects then how much of the debt could be drawn down in 2016? cashburn appears to be c$1.5 million a month at Wandisco whicj suggests to us that by Spring 2016 it will be out of cash and it cannot use the facility merely as an overdraft. And that assumes no more forecast downgrades. We have had two downgrades in the past few months so our scenario is a best case one, reality could be far worse.
We have a company here with, even in a generous scenario, cash generation not in sight and its cash burn looking set to raise funding concerns. The question on the latter being just how soon? The chances of Wandisco getting its 2015 accounts signed off without qualification seem slim to nil.
The 187.5p share price gives a market cap of £55 million. It strikes us that a rescue placing is needed PDQ.
The shares remain a Bargepole/Sell.
So when will we be singing the new AIM casino theme tune for WANDisco?"