RE: these sells bode to me as though18 Jan 2016 22:51
Fair enough. The big question is whether they will hit their reduced sales target for 2015, at 1.4million euros.
In some ways fox marble has made big progress in 2015 by getting onto all quarries sites now and getting their stocks up, and nearly finishing their factory! But a big disappointment compared to 2014 where in just 3 months we had 2 offtake agreements worth 1.3million euros a year and a sales agreement to China worth between 2.5m and 5million a year, only to find in the first 6 months of 2015 we sold only 110,000 euros worth! It was pretty pointless having the off take/sales agency agreements if they couldn't provide commercially all the marbles they needed to honour them and realise their value.
What I want to see in this update is that they are catching up with these orders and getting the cash in. The sivec quarries only opened in September and the White Illyric in November and these are meant to be put 2 most desirable marbles, so did they get enough out before the snow hit?
I'm not that worried about us not processing our own stone yet and using our distributors to process it instead. Its a slight cost and hassle with transportation but at least they have a back up in place. It will come good this summer, I'm sure of that. I have seen some people complain in the past that the factory just equals more cost and mouths to feed but wages are so low in Kosovo and not having to transport stones to Italy and Macedonia for processing means it should definitely be more profitable and gives us more control as well.
As the year progresses I want to see this Chinese agreement finalised with them taking this 10,000 tons of stone they promised (now we can provide it). Also our offtake agreement worth 500,000 euros every month with Banyan expires this summer, I would like to see that renewed.
Distributors are an issue as well. I think Pisani have been fantastic selling stone for us in North America (2014) and to Berkeley homes (2 orders). MGI in Italy are pulling their weight by exceeding their minimum off take each month. Royal Stone in America though, what have they been doing the whole of 2015? Likewise Gulf Marble (our middle eastern distributors) what have they been doing if the middle east is such a dynamic market? We made a small sale to Egypt, it may have been them, but if they can't get the customers keep the sivec quarry relationship with them and find another distributor. Finally the whole of 2015 fox have been saying India is going to be an important market but as far as I can see we have no distributor in place to sell there, its a blind spot for the company.
Broker forecasts this year are cashflow positive which means fox needs sales of 5- 6 million euros If thy only sell block, but they are sure to sell more finished marble as well so that figure should be lower. I'm expecting them to exceed that I want my maiden dividend in 2017!