RE: 8p options14 Feb 2017 01:24
There's very little point in owning the site even if the Orthodox monastery of Toplou could sell it - I'm not sure what the charter of this charitable foundation are. If permission isn't granted and it's undevelopable it's pretty much worthless anyway and Minoan at least with a lease can walk away when it expires.
One way or another it should be decided soon, I'm pretty relaxed on the risk/reward here.
The same government agencies that approved this as part of the presidential decree reaffirmed their support for this in the appeal. The freeholders must want this to go through to increase the value of their land and also to monetise it. The same people against it are the environmental lobbyists who have already got the development shrunk down to a smaller 26 acres anyway and will never be pleased unless its empty land. The Cretan hoteliers and their political lobbyists are never going to be satisfied with extra competition either so nothing has changed there, we know they are against it. We are in exactly the same position as when the presidential decree was passed, the decision should be the same.
Worst case scenario this gets delayed/not passed in which case the travel agency still cannot cover the costs of finance and administration costs from the listing and they still burn through 1-2 million per year with more dilution and share options no doubt. In which case take think about taking a hit and sell out.
Best case they get permission in a matter of weeks, raise a bit of money on the share rise and have enough in reserve until proper financing can be arranged and maybe enough to expand the travel business. The 2 elements should be separated as soon as possible. Even consider selling the whole travel business off , its too competitive an industry to generate big returns and just concentrate on unlocking shareholder value from Crete. Any option that gets planning will see a substantial increase in NAV and shareholder value, a multiple more I think than a potential refusal.
The final results next month will be interesting. H1 was good, H2 took a brexit weak pound hit and then 1st quarter this year fully recovered and increasing again. Will the travel division show a profit for the year or was the loss in revenues enough to drag it into a loss?