Member Info for eshaitan

Chris Gilbert in his latest presentations has said this is a 70pc gross margin business. It costs 60-70 euros to extract a tonne of marble. They are predicting an average selling price of 185 euros this year. To process a tonne of block marble costs an additional 150 euros per tonne which would push the gross margin to 90% for processed. The problem is other quarry companies are reporting margins of 40%- late 50%. If you look at fox marbles accounts they did an average margin of: 37.3pc in 2016 33.9pc in 2017 31.5pc in h1 2018. My answer might seem a bit of a cop out but I don’t think we have enough information at the moment. This year 2019 will answer that as commissions rise and the quarries and production expands in the factory. I’m willing to accept those margins Chris highlights are true for block marble if you don’t have to shift a few hundred tonnes of topsoil to access them. The margins for the factory might be that but then the quarries are 2-3 hours away in Kosovo from the factory and I don’t think the 90% margin reflects transportation costs. My gut feeling is eventually total combined margins will be somewhere over 60pc but until malisheve quarry significantly expands they won’t be there yet. But operating losses dropped significantly in h1 2018 and I expect them to drop further in h2. So it’s quite possible they will show an operating profit in 2019.

The high octane marble market isn’t for everyone. This adrenaline charged pressure cooker kills more investors than any other mining stock. Buyers beware.

A quiet board indeed. The investor show 2019 presentation by the company was very good. I expect some good news flow this year.

I think you can pretty much write pristine stone off, I expect the sales to the USA to be practically zero when they release this years annual report. Factory sales last year will be interesting as well and I’m thinking not in a good way. For this year I think it’s fair to write block sales will provide the backbone of sales at 3 million. The factory sales will get nowhere near that figure unless they win some very big tenders. The uk developments seem to have dried up since Pisani went into administration. We will have a very good idea where the company is at in July when they release h1 results. If they aren’t selling 2000tonnes of material per month in April, May and June then there has to be big questions on their forecasts. The factory orders are heavily dependent on Dubai sales at the moment. No other territory seems to be taking large amounts of processed material, hopefully that will change. But for all fox marbles faults I do expect plenty of news flow and sales to be announced imminently, this should be the low point.

With the extra dilution that has taken place my year end target price is now 15p! If it gets to a quid I will kick myself because I will have long sold up.

You’re getting close to that 1 million mark! Still the same as last time. Just over 860000 and an average of 8.3p.

It looks good

https://www.instagram.com/fox_marble/?hl=en

Regarding selling blocks to FHL I agree. Any route to market is good at the moment. When we have the contacts we can undercut FHL on price anyway or just not sell them blocks anymore.

I just watched the 2019 investor show presentation by Andrew Bell. It looked really good so I started digging through the accounts to see asset backing and cash flow.

For the life of me I can't decide whether this is a lifestyle company eeking out just enough to pay the directors or whether it really is fundamentally undervalued. It looks too good to be true.

Hey guys. The uk investor show are starting to release videos of company presentations. Nothing from fox on there yet, I assume Chris would be speaking? I’m about to watch r4e my second biggest holding. The margins are still there Truro. They said they could get 160-200 euros per tonne for blocks from malisheve and 300 euros for the alexandrian white, (200 to fox once the 35pc commission has been paid to the quarry owner). That still fits with their forecasts of 3 million euros from selling 16000 tonnes of block marble. I’m assuming nothing anymore until they have the money and say they have shipped it. I think Chris has very vivid marble selling dreams sometimes, wakes up and writes an rns!

No doubt a better year, and the share price will rise as that becomes evident, but I’m personally looking forward to the final results report being published in the next 4 weeks and rooting through the pigs ear of 2018. 2019 will be a different beast with more sales, quarrying and less commission but for 2018 I want to see the sales breakdown by territory, the processed marble sales and average price achieved for block and slab. My only concern for 2019 is that even if no one customer is responsible for more than 35pc of sales, one type of marble (the Selene) is probably going to be responsible for 60-70pc of forward block orders. In the next update they have to stress they have fully addressed the supply problem.

No idea. But I think you’re right there should be a quarterly update soon.

https://mobile.twitter.com/FoxMarblePLC

I suppose the other thing that stayed in my mind was the the 1 million cost could in the future equate to one years revenues of 5 million from malisheve. To get that figure they would have to be excavating 25000tonnes from that site alone and selling it all. A statement of intent I think.

Thanks I just had a listen, thanks. Sounds like prilep is meeting demand and malisheve still needs work. But 2/3rds of orders, maybe more are for malisheve so hopefully they can do a lot of work there this year. It was interesting hearing about the m1 and m2 quarries. That million for the rights to malisheve m3 quarry sounds like an absolute bargain. That and the factory provides real asset backing to the company. Should hopefully see tangible growth and revenues by the agm in June. The next 3 months should be an eye opener and put the last years revenues into touch.

Reissue buy recommendation. More patience may be required.

This year we will know if we were right or wrong to invest in this. All the pieces are there. If they hadn’t expanded their quarries into malisheve and prilep I’m pretty sure this company would be bust by now. Their business plan in 2012 just didn’t work with the range of marbles they had available at the time. I wouldn’t mind if they paid out the owner of the prilep quarries as well to take them completely in house with no commission. It would cost a lot more but it could be worth it.

If you look at the first days trading rns on aim it shows the listing of shares, money raised for their business plan and most importantly the market cap sitting at 21.4 million. If you add in the shares fox currently want to add to purchase an asset the current market cap is just over 19 million with a little debt due next year. It’s pretty much the same. It doesn’t make much sense just listing the dilution of shares as it wasn’t for dilutions sake with no progress. It would make more sense if next to those share issuances you listed what the company had achieved and that then answers you question. Investors will make money by the company being in a position to make money. The amount of shares is irrelevant as long as the share issuances stop and they can expand from cash flow. Are they there yet? I think so. And I’m not defending the company’s rate of progress. In 2012 they said they would be cash flow positive by 2014. They are a little behind.....

It’s a strange one that 23rd update. At first glance seeing the yellow gantry cranes I thought it was fox marbles factory but it isn’t. Cant work it out, maybe the blocks were delivered to another marble company in another country? I had to go back to the financial reports to see the implications of yesterday’s RNS. Fox had to pay a 20pc royalty on net profit generated from block marble to the quarry licence holder. Also they might be working on a 5 hectare sure but they also have rights to 300 hectares at malesheve overall. I guess this is a word of warning on the costs of starting a quarry from scratch. They have quarried 15000 tonnes from malisheve, yet they still haven’t broke even on start up expenditure. They probably did the right contract on this quarry as Prilep they had to pay all costs to start it up and commission on all block marble quarried as well. One other point. Since when did fox have hire purchase agreements? Surely that is hiding debt off books? Especially when previous fundraising’s were meant to fund the factory equipment. It begs the question is there any more debt anywhere else? I will watch out for any updates I have 3 weeks off work now. It feels good to kick back for a while.

I’m all for controlling the asset and reducing future royalties. Shame it’s at this share price. The only problem I can see is by the time this comes up for approval the share price has shifted dramatically higher or lower. Could cause a problem. So how did q1 go Chris?

Really hard to say what q1 will be for revenues. That 40tonnes of Alexandria white that was sold is worth maybe 80k-100k after commission to the quarry owner. Those deposits from Dubai were worth 300k. How much of that was taken? Did they sell more alexandrian blue blocks ? And when will this new marble be shown on the fox website and our distributors in the Balkan’s and America? But with the factory I would hope well over 200k, especially with the kind weather. 1.5 million seems really low. Brandon hill capital have predicted over 17000t quarried andwell in excess of 3 million in revenues https://www.brandonhillcapital.com/media/77820/fox_marble_flashnote_2019_01_21.pdf I think fox have made their staff stop posting or at least restrict their privacy settings. Only a couple are still showing photos that work in the quarries.