Member Info for eshaitan

Well up 10% at the moment so the market likes it.

It didn't have to be epic, it just had to reinforce that this is a good sustainable business and that their plan is coming together.

They already have 1/3 of profit coming from high margin services and 2/3 from complex development so well on their way to 50/50.

H2 order book stands at 500m. At a 4% margin that should be another 20 million in profit. That should increase, but if it doesn't they already are at the top end of their revised forecasts of 42 million underlying profit. I think there is a chance of a improved
forecast later this year.

I have dug though looking for nasties and very impressed. Strong revenue and crucially higher margin, having increased to 4% and likely to increase more going forward.

Average end of month cash down but this is because they are paying their suppliers faster. Pension still in surplus, although contributions will match dividends.

Very impressed. I'm going back to my original view, the share price should be starting with a 3, the last trading update was a one off blip with factors out of their control.

The 3.8p interim dividend will be handy, I would expect the full year one to be an additional 7-8p on their forecasts.

So am I at this price.

The forecasts for this year are a pretax profit of 33.1million and an EPS of 24.8p.

Next years revised forecasts are a profit of 38.5million and an EPS of 28.9p.

At this share price it’s a P/E of 6 this year falling to under 5 next year. It’s insane unless the market expects more bad news and downward forecasts on Wednesday.

I personally think a PE of 10 is reasonable giving share price of 250p to reflect uncertainty. This should be a growth stock at that level.

Hopefully any bad news is priced in and the dividend is not cut too much.

I thought this was an interesting read.

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/shares/2019/07/18/the-shaky-foundations-of-uk-construction/

Best to look at this over the 5 year plan Alex Vaugh has put forward taking the company to 2024/25.

If they hit their targets to grow the value added business rapidly on top of the complex delivery projects they already have, revenues would be around 2 billion averaging a 5-6% margin.

A 100 million underlying profit each year would be very welcome and the share price would be a multiple of the current price. Short term anything could happen.

I have topped up today but still have an average of 170. It look cheap but we won't know until next weeks trading statement, I thought 175 was good value a few weeks ago and look where we are now!

I still see it as a sleep sound at night stock this is too well run to implode. I'm personally after a share price north of 3 pounds but it may take a couple of years to get there reinvesting dividends along the way.

It could be worse. If you bought at the peak you would have been 70% down over the year.

I still have more more dry powder to fire at this. I’m not sure whether to buy now or wait for the update.

This is priced for Armageddon. You would of thought if there was more bad news they would already have kitchen sinked it on the last update? On fundamentals it looks far too cheap.

On a PE of 5! You would of thought this company was going to the dogs.

Sentiment will change at some point.

The day traders and flippers will have gone by now, there is always a churn after a big share price fall. I bought some more today but I'm not expecting a recovery to happen until next year.

I like the companies plan to increase margins to 7% but it is a 5 year plan. If they pull it off I would of thought a share price in excess of 500p would be fundamentally correct. This year it's steadying the ship and making clear to investors the contract delays were a blip.

After the big falls in the last year boring would be good.

I didn’t know he was the brother, I just knew his position within the company. He last popped up about a year ago when he did a tour of the uk factory with the uk ambassador I believe, so he was fully on board then.

I have no doubt he just wants money! My problem is the company not talking, them saying in an interview this had no effect on production either at the quarry or factory. The next day an annonoymous poster on advfn posts malesheve is shut down and nearly 2 weeks later the company confirms it by RNS.

My personal opinion is fox will win, it’s the damage it could cause while it gets sorted. Last time it took just 2 months to resolve their licences being illegally taken. That was clear cut corruption. This might be just as fast or it might take longer.

Its one of those damned if you do and damned if you don’t situations. I’m quite happy to be wrong and you guys make a killing. It’s just the risk has changed for me. I can try and predict when I think a company will be cash generative. How long legal proceedings might take or cost is well out of my scope.

It's one of those things unvrkw, business partners falling into dispute and everything going to hell!

I'm out. A loss overall of 23pc but I will take it on the chin. Just need a 30pc increase elsewhere to pull it back so I have put it into Costain, a company a few of my family work for, that has had it's own fall but has nett cash and good management and pays dividends!

My reasoning is this has now turned into a binary bet whether they succeed or fail. Malesheve was the quarry making the money and keeping the cash from disappearing until factory and prilep sales increased. Previous to this announcement I was very confident now it's not only a question of winning the battle which will be time consuming and expensive but how fast they can do it. They only have a few months money if malesheve revenue dries up so they could win and this could fly or they will do constant dilution or loan notes until this is resolved one way or the other. Time is not on Fox Marble's side.

I wish you luck on your investment and all the other decent people on here, I will look at buying back in when this is resolved.

All depends how long this drags on for I guess? The status quote is thry don’t buy the rights to the quarry and pay 20pc on profits in the future at males here. And they don’t buy out the hire purchase debt which in the grand scheme of things is negligible and will expire in a few years anyway.

I said back in April they could hit a snag if the share price drops below purchase value. As this is a related party transaction I would think this is still all about price. Malisheve is being far more successful than the company could have envisaged, it probably is worth substantially more than fox are paying whatever was agreed.

It’s worth another call to the company.

To go from the last interview dispute having no effect on production to now stopping production temporarily.

Is this a way of tightening the screws for fox to say go through with the deal or get no commision ever and no money if we don't produce or is it the other way round and they have been stopped?

I sold 40k's worth of shares a few weeks ago as a hedge but still have agood chunk in here so I hope it's a negotiating tactic. Expect the share price to get smashed today!

On another note this was on the advfn board over a week ago. I thought it was some nut job. How did they know?

yesterday at the Cardiff hustings. Cancelling the m4 relief road was a bizarre decision and should be reversed immediately.

Nitbhav asked what we thought h1 revenues will be. I think somewhere between 1-1.1million, but I wanted to see 1.5 million to have any chance of breaking even this year.

I watched a video on Facebook this morning of one of the drivers delivering again. They have sample slabs of all their marbles lined up outside for customers to see as they drive in and an impressive amount of blocks and processed material. Are they selling more yet?

I think the share price is in limbo at the moment as the company is still not generating cash on a month by month basis, probably because the sales for the factory haven’t grown as expected yet. Investors are keeping one eye on progress achieved and the other on the cash balance. The block sales they are doing very well in but they can’t achieve profitability on these quarrying levels without factory sales increasing.

It’s nice to see more block sales announced but I really want to see an rns for a big processed order. That will be the catalyst for a big share price increase.

Something to listen to at the weekend. It's a very short one.

Anything up to 2 million euros I assume, as the average price sold to China was over 200 euros per month.

It all depends what price they are achieving for lesser grades and if they can fulfill the order. I don’t see how they can at current extraction rates.

Let me know when it’s back to starting with a 3!

The Alexandrian blue one looks the best.