Hey Tacet - yourself, Ceders and Geng are truly missed in this BB (Happyinvester is still around and somehow I can not forget Caitlin's "Boooom" when it was jumped to 203 from 200 in Oct/20). Hope you are doing well in your other investments. I am still trading from time when I find opportunity - BP is my beloved company and I can not be as decisive as you are. However, it's a dead industry and BP SP will be depends on how successful it will be in "re-invent" herself. In the meantime I am enjoying the ride
I really don't think most of people in this BB get it (neither recently did I) but BP SP can be affected by PoO until a lvl and then comes into affect Future Growth potential (which is minus for fossil fuels), dividend (BP halved in last 6 months) and success to re-invent yourself for the 2nd half of 21st century (which is unknown for BP yet though the policy is really encouraging). In near future; what BP will do with excess cash they got once 35B net debt target achieved is important (how will they manage share buy back?). In the meantime; enjoy the ride :) By the way, try to embrace change rather than figth an not win-able figth. I am of to order an EV Skoda more expensive than a Jaguar Diesel next month (yes, even I can't believe I am doing it!). I am either stupid or foresee a bit of future!
Another reason to make a move for BEV happy :) it's cheaper to run/service, it's long lasting (less moving/rotating parts) and it does not harm our beloved planet. It would be ironic if I buy BEV with money made from BP stock :)
I will be honest that I was not expecting 4% drop today but a steady retreat to 290s. Anyway, since I benefited a lot from post in this BB, below is what I will do. No way, I am an expert and any comments are not based on TA but my sentiments. Below comments are risky and a sudden increase (which have every reason to do so; high PoO, Vaccine, Summer, etc) will cause me missed out. Please DYOR.
1) I will wait for 280s and daily incursion into 270s. Also, gauge market sentiment as some shares are still overbought and can change market sentiment. Based on market sentiment, I might get mine 1st slice.
2) if it drops to 270s, I will wait incursion into 260s and buy my bulk at 260s.
3) There is chances of visiting 250s though, it is highly unlikely and some fundemantals need to change (vaccine efficacy or OPEC+ outcome)
4) Below 250s is very very unlikely but ho hey, who knows? After all, no one could predict 290s exactly a year ago.
After all, I believe it is a great company. Indeed it is the only company I am confident to put all of my holdings (twice now).
Some fellows here under impression of non stop grow while they are very well aware stocks are neither cancer cell in our body nor mankind in planet earth. So, ups and downs are quite normal. So, Enjoy the ride and remember trend is upwards
I am not a short term holder, indeed it was a month I was holding it (all of my holdings at one stage). However, weekly 40million GBP loss maker EZJ is higher than pre-covid lvl. NEX has no service but share price is 3/4 of pre-covid. All sign of bubble alongside tech. These are good enough to change market sentiment. BP fundamentals are strong but market sentiment will come to play for a short while.
I am out too at 304 too. I believe BP is great company and will be back. However, I think aviation/travel are overbought (maybe even XOM and CHV) and there will be a correction. Unfortunately, BP will be affected negatively too. It was to big risk for me to hold in short term but absolutely no risk longer term - fair price is +3.50
Morning Happy,
Could I please ask your opinion on IG please? I started to use them this week and planning to move over my ISA as well since they provide ISA.
I understand you have more experience than me. Have you had any problem so far? Are they reliable provider? I believe they should be since they are allowed to open ISA, but I would appreciate for your opinion please.
I would have been tempted to take my profit but BP is significantly lower than their piers (in USD). Exxon and Chevron are at 52wekks high while Shell 15% down. BP is circa 30% down. So, I believe there is still head room whether GBP exchange rates changes are not.
I think share price can continue to suffer with rising GBP
to USD exchange rate. SP based on today's ADR closure is circa 285 (GBP / USD: 1.42). It would have been circa 295 on 16 Jan/21 (GBP / USD: 1.36) and 325 in July/20 (GBP / USD: 124).
PTbrown1963,
Thanks for reply.
I thought the person/HF who bets either pay difference between call price and actual price (plus the deposit they put down for call option) or let the lender keep their deposit without executing call option. Either way, lender will benefit if SP remain above call price.
It appears as not all call options needed to be filled in (at least so far).
There is a lot of emphasis on Options since Robina's post; what I don't understand why most of people believes it has to be filled since the underwriter most likely to be a bigger institution than the person/HF who bets. So, it should be in bigger institution benefit to keep it above call lvl unless there is something dirty on going. Does anyone know a better explanation?
I would have traded too at these lvls but not after finding out even guru WB invested in and PoO climbing to 70USD. Keen to find out what US market reaction would be to WB investment. My bar is up now even for trading.
Nope, some people just don't get it the fact that this is existential issue :) You act now or you have now presence in 2040s-2050s. History is full of examples; recently Ericsson, Nokia or in early 20th century's railway companies
Well, had SP driven by PoO only, it should have been min £4.50 by now(ref Jan 2020 pricing). PoO is higher than Jan/20 price at the moment. Probably, based on the fact of lower OPEC+ output, market is more cautious. Whether it justified I am not sure? Would KSA prefer to export 8mboe/day from 45USD or 7mboe from 60USD? It's basic math
With all the respect tacet, yes it is green and has to be. There is no other way, fossil are not infinite and it's choking our planet. They have been around for the last 150years while humanity tens of thousands.
Ref to Crude effects on BP income in q1/21 vs q4/20, I calculated as extra 2billion dolar extra income at q4/20 production lvl. Below details:
BP q4 production: 2,155 mboe/d
Q4/20 average crude price: 42 dolar
Q1/21 average crude price: 52 dolar (assumed)
2,155x10x90= circa 2billion dolar
Above calculation is fundemantal for risk vs reward. However, Market sentiment most of time override fundemantals (not to mention oil companies are not popular for the right reason). I believe BP is in right direction trying to re-invent itself as part of solution, not problem. Whether it will be successful, only time will show.
PS. My calculations migty be wrong