Our latest Investing Matters Podcast episode with QuotedData's Edward Marten has just been released. Listen here.
It's not a secret that traders post on share bbs in order to try and influence short term share prices, to either go up or down.
As we are skirting the bottom of what has been yearly lows, and with V prices having risen consistently for the last 3 months and now accelerating in that rise, traders will be looking for an entry point to go long. Now, will they just buy in? Some will, others will try and bash the price down just a little further out of greed in order to be able to maximise their gains when they go long.
I see one or two of that type out tonight, jumping on the back of LTH frustrations. However, they forget the majority of LTH have been through much worse with this share and aren't novice investor idiots who sell at the bottom of a share price wave.
The only thing potentially holding this back is a share overhang, but that could clear at any point. Trying to trade this in the meanwhile is like trying to win against a dealer who knows every card before it is laid.
They mention participating in the world bank funded battery storage project in SA twice in that presentation. Don't remember it being directly mentioned before in an investor presentation before. They must be quite confident, and they have every reason to be. Hopefully there will be news on that front this year.
Don't try and hijack the legitimate concerns of a holder and turn them into your own negative agenda Beserker, it's obvious and it's juvenile.
Posts that are written by anyone here can be verified by facts, and posts by most of the long term holders here can be verified. They are not posting pie in the sky nonsense, they are posting about what the company is actually currently doing. How is that a pre-designed narrative? If you mean, by pre-designed, that what the company do dictates what we say they are doing, then yes it is! What exactly is it that you don't trust? Do you not trust the vanadium price updates that are posted on fastmarkets and asian metals? The information regarding the acquisitions? All I see is a vague attempt to discredit people posting worthwhile information whist providing none yourself.
Unfortunately you can't really compare BMN to fevertree. Yes, it's unfair, but it's the reality. The market currently classifies bmn as a junior miner, which generally have p/e ratios between 6 and 12. However, what the market has not yet recognised is that bmn is quickly developing into a growth tech stock. These companies have a p/e ratio of around 25. Once this transition is made clear I would expect quite a significant re-rate. However, the markets ability to understand a company like bmn is going to be tenuous at first, it went from have no operational mine to being a world leader in the industry within 3 years. Its changed dramatically once already, and you could argue that change has yet to really be priced in. Convincing the market of yet another dramatic change may end up taking time. It will get there, but we may have to be prepared to be a little patient.
I'd agree bassguy. The sp has been down and consolidating for quite a few months now. With everything that has happened the past half year it is now not a matter of if but when. And with every week that when grows much closer. The usual trolls are about I see, masquerading and reasonable investors with certain 'qualms'. Switching from novice investor to seasoned Pro over night and somehow knowing the dynamics of the interaction on this board despite having only just joined. But I feel these people are quite transparent. The number of hooks they are able to hang onto to seed doubt are growing less and less, and they know it. It is now I think no longer really about shorting but about trying to achieve the best buy price to go long on the inevitable coming rise.
Since the sp was last here bmn have increased their ownership of vametco from 59.1 to 74%, set in place employee insentives to prevent further strikes, progressed on phase one of ramping up production to 3400 mtv, acquired Vanchem which massively diversifies their product base and de-risks the entire business with 4 potential kilns whilst unlocking the ability to utilise the ore at mokopane, the license for which only now seemingly needs to be signed off, created an investment group through BE that is acquiring Enerox and have taken a stake in the merged avalon/redt business giving them right of first refusal to all Vanadium products with both businesses. And if people think that these two investments are the last of the consolidation of the vrfb industry then they are wrong. You don't create a consortium of investors just to put money into one company.
And after all this the market currently values the company as less than what it was before. It is quite clearly wrong.
Chinese New Year is next weekend also. This usually kickstarts many industries in China that have been dormant over winter, including rebar production as construction generally slows over the cold winter months.
I was in China for 6 weeks last summer, and that scale of the construction is astounding. Entire cities are being built from scratch in the middle of nowhere. Rows upon rows of apartment blocks. I saw one stretch that had at least 30 being built on the same site. Not only that but in Beijing I counted at least 15 new skyscrapers being built in the district I was staying in, and Beijing is huge. I do wonder whether all of these buildings are using the appropriate level of Vanadium in their rebar as per the new regulations, I can only assume that so far they are not. Shifting an industry of that scale would have quite dramatic impact of Vanadium demand, and despite the spike in prices last year the deficit, whilst still projected going forward, has not immediately been apparent. I can only imagine that if and when China enforce the new regulations with greater discipline, that it will begin to have a meaningful impact on Vanadium demand.
And this is completely ignoring the emerging Indian construction market, which in coming years will outstrip China in its growth.
I'm currently in the US, west coast, hence the time of my posting! It's about ten at night here on Christmas eve. I know I don't post as much at the moment. Partly due to time differences, partly due to work load. I'm still here, and still watching.
Vaneck seem to bring a bad stink with them where ever they go, will be glad to see the back of them. Hopefully BMN aren't put back into their index at some point. I'd very much rather we were left off their index altogether.
As they were selling circa 14m shares, they must have let at least one market maker know. The market makers aren't going to want to pay any more than they have to for it, and with the sp so close to 20p it wasnt hard to walk it down below it, hoover up those 13 million shares ready to sell on later.
I know a lot of people have already said it, and most of us already know it, but I genuinely believe that 2020 will be an exceptional year for BMN. 2019 was laying the ground work, spending the money that was earned on the back of acquisition of Vametco and building their future revenue streams. To think that we are below 20p is almost unbelievable, but such is the aim market. At least from here we again have many bags to look forward to! And I managed to grab a couple more on Friday at 18.75p. Not something I ever thought I'd be able to do! And actually the lowest price I've ever gotten for these shares!
Happy Holidays everyone. Hope you enjoy a respite from the never-ending quagmire that is the aim market.
The only question that matters to me is have the fundamentals changed? If you bought in based on fundamentals, and the future value that this promised, then is it any different now? Taking away the current share price, is the company in a better or worse position this time last year? How have they opened up their plans for the future and set the ground work for future growth? If you believe that they are in a better position, and that the fundamentals haven't changed, then the current sp should not bother you, unless you needed to sell in the near term due to personal commitments.
By early next year BE will have the rights of first refusal to vanadium products to the merged Avalon/RedT, and a significant holding in the Bushveld Consortiums ownership of Cellcube's VRFB supply. They are consolidating the industry and forging a brand new path that will unlock many new opportunities. Absolutely stellar work by the BoD!
The energy storage webinar that Bushveld hosted has slides that can show you cost comparisons between different types of energy storage. If you are talking about cost per cycle then VRFB outperforms li-ion. And with the option to lease out the electrolyte and lower capex costs, they are certainly a viable alternative.
Anyone else notice Mikhail's reaction to when Fortune mentions that they are in conversations regarding larger rental contracts... looks like Fortune may have mentioned something that Mikhail wanted to keep to himself for now. Still, they are in active conversations for other, bigger rental contracts. Which is very good!
If investors don't understand the potential upside here after watching that video then I'm not sure what would convince them. Yes, it still all has to be delivered, but investing is all about risk/reward and future growth potential. With the diversification of products available through Vanchem, and the ability to have multiple kilns working, the overall business has been de-risked to a large extent. So the downside risk is now limited vs the very considerable upside potential. That's a very exciting position to be in for a shareholder.