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Doc d. Then if there were 6 cases per year of MERS then if a new wave of Omi circulates in any year there is a pretty good chance of cross interaction of the ssid viruses..maybe higher than England's chances of winning the next world cup. Bats also like camel poo too so it could self propergate that way from other species viral reservoirs (and vampire bats too that feed on camel blood). ?? + bat => risk for camel owners. I'm sure the second scenario is not quite proven but not out of the question ...
E.g. many sign posts all over the web site now: Estimated 3m+
people in US hospitalised annually from 2022 onwards due to severe VRIs
source: IQUVIA market research Q4 2022; Sources: US CDC, HCUP, IQVIA Claims Data, PubMed; data on file. Etc etc etc
Will big pharma connect the dots by end Q1 2023 on this RWE story and economic opportunity crested by growing US viral preparedness theme? What will win ? Short termism re: affordability v's longer term sensible logic prevailing for SNG001 Stockpiling for disaster planning given fantastic replicative ACTIV phase II Data?
There is a small risk of any one said arab camel owner getting co infected creating a MERS / Omicron sub variant hybrid super virus of course as we have seen in the past with such recombination. Then SNG001 will be needed for sure and EUA. If this sub variant risk does happen to evolve during 2023 then more people die and we shareholders run that risk aswell but we may die happy financially for our families left behind....!
Good find Brand. Positive welcoming influencing tail winds at last in EU and visible to be seen by big pharma to galvanise strategic thinking on assets they may want in their portfolio! Sng001?
Dippfs, my comment is for licensing the whole asset outright not just for COPD. Let's put it this way, there is a difference between price and value. The price we see today is heavily down weighted because of the vast majority of us douting investors; we are very wary being significantly under water (burned alive in fact) plus well over invested and will not invest (very risk averse for sure) further until there's a clear value crystallisation event or major stimulus like STRIVE inclusion. However the intrinsic value of this company looks to be much higher now we have some great extra efficacy signals (corroboration) and great safety data points on the development map that point to "this works well" as a generalised agnostic innate immune system viral defence solution with an established mode of action story (viral defence akin to antibiotics) to tell patients/prescribers (and payors indirectly to reduce hospitalisation costs),
with fantastically low side effects observed, and especially beneficial if you use it early with people with known risk factors or genetic defects of the innate immune system or those already immune compromised. I don't think it's out of the question to get an upfront payment of roughly this £150m magnitude plus future weighted milestones and royalties if things turn out favourably with 1 or 2 large pharma cos negotiations. The only reservation as always is our relatively high drug price point but I think the balance will tip soon into a JV deal since BP has to be crazy not to want to spend tiny beer money (£150m upfront) for the rights to all the upside profit there could easily be here in wide commercialisation and extension of label and potential for off label use for any old suspected respiratory virus and COPD asthma suffers in hospitalised settings.
Forgot to add, I think a licensing deal is far more likely due to the branched / sequential nature of all the revenue extensions from discrete viral segments etc that makes estimation of a cash price point estimate very difficult to determine (as cash on day 1 of a T/O) and that fact limits the price any BP would shell out upfront day 1. So in fact the best value optimisation for shareholders would be a stepwise licensing deal or one complete one with good royalties on sales itrespective of where tevenues are generated. Either way our value should be well above £ 2.25ps.
With respect guys this baby is worth far more than £2.25 with all the latest newsflows that hasn't as yet crystallised in the stock price..yet! so don't throw the baby out with the bathwater. We now know this blooody thing works and has a fantastic side effect profile. It's a bit like a cannabioid drug in fact. Negative adverse events if I recall the data. The only thing holding us back( slightly ) is the drug price tag but the weight of evidence across multiple viral types will overwhelm the resistance that exists then the wall of money will flow so to speak as a JV or TO. That's my opinion so we wait for the end game to be unravelled during early 2023....but don't sell 100% of your holding to make 10% to 50% return is my guidance but you are welcome to your own strategy. It's your dosh.
It's because it's preclinical. V early stage so may never crystallise further payments from AZ or indeed those small royalty payments as probability of launch guess of 5%. SNG's upfront payment with a similar but later stage deal will be say 15 to 25% of the value of the asset licensed. So maybe we would get GBP150m+..and double digit royalty... however we wait for that (still)
Don't forget this is a massively (already) invested R&D business with significantly protected IP, great long term blue chip branded client contracts and it's not all about short term PE generation in the valuation. It's part of the story but if a large new client comes on stream or new application gets derisked or revenues above expectation then that will drive near term stock price alot since presently the stock price is only say c.25% of original cost of investment. Cheap as chips. It will spring back lively rest assured into or before early 2023. You saw what happened during the uplift to 15p in no time, albeit bit early ....2023 though??
Because this stock is thinly traded I'm guessing 95% of us lot believe the SP will be moving accretively over the next 6 months with what we know today. Anyone out there believe the SP will lower than today? If nil response we probably have a thin cap issue at play here! Quite high certainty of that - mind the valueation gap. Or in this case invest on that SP value asymmetry. Its real to me but await wide opinion
@DrEricDing on Twitter. Sorry can't seem to share link. Kids are not naturally immune and probably bacterial exaccerbations as catalyst and/ or concomitant infection with other viruses. 10k admissions growing to c 20k in 1 year. Same picture. USA.
Just been refecting on all the recent various clinical study efficacy signals. My theory is that it's quite late in the runaway viral replication severity stage when patients enter into hospitalisation. By this time there is quite serious lung tissue damage and massive cellular destruction . There is also a large runaway viral spread into other tissues of the body that generates and drives this biochemically diverse long covid issue. So I'm joining the dots- I think that treatment by SNG001 as per SPRINTER is almost too late to show a very marked (optimal) long covid reduction effect even though we generated say a 40% average reduction in disease symptoms as per Synairgen mgt. ACTIV 2 on the other hand in earlier stages of viral attack and disease ingress shows an 87% reduction on progression to hospitalisation. Eg SNG001 simply reduces viral runaway replication early enough in the cycle of runaway disease progression. Key hypothesis here is that SNG001's BEST or optimal LC outcome treatment timing is probably at this early stage before runaway replication occurs ( before patients get severe enough to present to hospitalisation). So by correlation if all suffers of COVID 19 been given SNG001 early enough then in the whole patient pool long covid would likely be reduced by 86% roughly all other things held constant as per ACTIV2 result (ACTIV 2 Verified by our own home trial results earlier and in aggregate statistically significant effect). Now there is a thought I hope big pharma is mulling over right now a therapy that provides 86% reduced LC societal impact for any futuresevere murant covid strain . Thats got to worth quite a few bio bucks to SNG. PS. I won't be selling shares tomorrow on a minor share price rise on this little theory as I'm holding mine for the end game outcome as a little "SNG zealot" IF I'm right little Andy maybe buying some shares tomorrow when he reads this..... Good luck Andy. And all LTHs.
Thanks Thorndon, really great spot. Forgive the pun : ITX really are 'sowing the seeds' for diversified growth. Awaiting company comment on the possible size of this new global channel to market..
Exactly AJ. We need a dual track approach here to seriously derisk our tech. Platform. STRIVE plodder adventure plus pharma driven lucrative (possibly broader than covid) licensing deal with meaty upfront and near term milestones by indication or patient application BUT IMPORTANTLY massive shareholder confidence kicker and Big Pharma commercial endorsement would be a game changer from my view. The shareholder value pie goes from a Tesco poor meat pie for one lonely adult to an M&S family size premium fillet steak option. then we get 30-50% of that much bigger pie and we have cash in bank on day 1.
One company must eventually want to build a franchise portfolio of different MOA treatments to improve the single asset risk exposure to any one innovation. Shionogi may want to make an offer or do a deal sooner rather or later or they may miss the boat.
SNG001 should definitely be placed on here as it states on the clinical trial tin "for viral emergencies"!
That's exactly our sweet spot in my view...if they don't put us on here soon they are bl##dy crazy! Innate immune augmentation for any emerging variant irrespective of evolutionary mutation immune avoidance. We sit and wait.