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ITX LinkedIn team now posting on average almost every day for last month.
John S has been recently recognized in Bioeconomy daily digest for his contribution which I was unaware of. Go see for yourself there is lots now going on in the ITX market awareness building strategy. Soon new eeb site to back up the strategy.
Pro - that's spineless....surely SNG001 is worth multiples more than that pathetic sum where you would throw in your chips????
In all seriousness. Its going to be really interesting how clever marketing and brand differentiation themes take hold of ITX ingredients and mould them into new product segments in sustainable paints and leather areas. Maybe SI is quietly waiting in the wings to see how that goes in H2 before he jumps back in Jan 2024 or may he miss the boat somewhat time will tell. However John's wide smile kind of tells a story that makes me want to be in this today not 2024 or 2025
I can only assume market formulation testing will be getting a bigger ticket area for ITX in coming months and quarters given all the spec chem ingredient exposure here with early adopters keen to re-segment their markets with new ECO minded customer products being target groups. Eg. New Delux 'ECO Sustain' TM branded wall paints for a greener better world. Marketers dream. I always wanted to be a marketer myst be great fun!
Itaconix Launches Biobased Functional Additives for Decorative Paints :
https://coatings.specialchem.com/news/product-news/itaconix-biobased-functional-additives-decorative-paints-000221458
SP. But forecast gross profits are looking above average for chem industry (premium) so all we need is enough volume at this profit level ( ie plant capacity utilisation needs to go up which looks highly probable given current trajectory of underlying growth). Funny thing is if tomorrow we re acquired this one marginal customer we lost; ITX investors would buy the stock back up to say 200p-250p; it doesn't make intuitive or logical sense that this marginal contract is worth that uplift in market cap. Its optical only at revenue comfort level.
IMO that's what's going on here and very much short term ism investment horizons for some of the investor base. The valuation defies logic of :
1. Prior professional fund raise around 250p over a year ago offset by worst case we are 1 year behind EBITDA delivery; net net zero change
2. Ability to fill plant more aggressively as price takers in H2 if we need or want to
3. A few diversification channels are now at cusp of conversion and probability of market access is lower than 1 year ago for sure
4. Management confidence on upside new client opps at higher profit potential
5. Free cash war chest that now seem in worst case tev projecton that will not be spent in capex duplicate plant in next 12 months
6. Capacity to expand quicker if we suddenly get demand.
7. Valuation Multiples now look odd after considering Free cash
Hi Paladin - there is likely to be something more important in the background that is needing some external comms management and SP excitement restraint but this is my best guess currently. Just imagine even a 100p target price reversion, what % relative value uplift is that and management clearly fear premature SP inflation that then has to be commented on in a formal RNS and early out of the bag pressure.
Chardude - its well oversold due to a few day trader sellers and will come back since its so cheap today. ITX is a solid business and never looked so good in the medium term as per John S CEO - it will rebound for sure in coming months with news on upside developments.
So my final question re: issuing RNS for new 1st diversification wins --> mgt expect to issue one in next few months - great! I expect this is a "leather" based channel since its always been one of the first in the list for textual updates and also in the last RNS majors on this.
The leather area seems to be the closest major diversification channel 24/25/26 so for John to articulate in such a granular fashion I'm guessing orders are now very close indeed and Im suspecting was a key trade-off consideration for the loss of lower profitability detergent customer. He keeps waving his tan shoes everywhere but lets see the stilettos now!