Back of a vape packet calc14 Nov 2022 12:13
These assumptions :-
Total graphite resource 3,260,000 T
Life of mine 10 years starting 2027
capex required (2023 £1M, 2024 £1M, 2025 £5M 2026 £10M)
current sale price graphite per tonne £1036 rising by 5% per annum for 5 years then flat (ref mordorintelligence)
direct costs per tonne of mining £20/T
Royalty 5%
Extraction rate 326000 T per annum, do able with loading a mini bulker (circa 2000 dwt) every two days from simple pontoon or jetty
NPV10 used gives £1,432,925,188
Equity / NPV10 ratio commonly used 50%
so fair market capitalisation should be £716,462,594
assuming a hypothetical self development made from mega placing at current levels (worst case scenario)
capex required £17,000,000
20% discount to current SP then that means
531250000 new shares
111000000 existing shares
642250000 post mega placing
NPV10 * 50% = £716,462,594
Fair value per post mega placing share £1.12
... thats just Amistoq