Member Info for elir71

good question

there's the matter of repaying the soft loans to them first

the resource was downvalued in the last accounts to reflect the simpler but less (theoretically) productive wells

if there was an asset id like to see flogged off then its HH

just to reiterate. Regardless of what GF recently stated about ALBA making future participation in placings, I at this time find it difficult to picture where that capital would come from given the timescales. So, in my view and other views are equally valid, by the commencement of graphite production at Amistoq, then ALBA's GROC holding could be reduced to about 10%, a more detailed explanation of why has been covered in a past post.

If you want exposure to Graphite then really I would run with GROC
If you primarily want exposure to NWales gold then I would run with ALBA

In my case over the past year or so I have increased my proportional exposure to GROC over ALBA. But that's just what suits me and it may not be right for you.

@asllankukeli we should not ignore the technological risk of some other technology reducing demand for graphite. That risk should be factored in when valuing Amistoq.

Quite valid examples are hydrogen combustion, hydrogen fuel cells, graphene cells and more efficient industrial processes to manufacture synthetic graphite from bi products such as petcoke.

To mitigate this then Amistoq should be brought into productions asap. In all fairness Steffan Bernstein has laid out a clear timeframe for production to commence in 2027. A few guestimates can be made of the capex required, however it wont be until the mineplan until that capex required to reach self sustainability (i.e. no more cap raises needed, development paid from revenue), that an accurate capital requirement can be assessed. How costly future cap raises will be in terms of cost in shares is far more difficult to forecast as future sentiment is a rather elusive factor and as such presents a considerable self fulfilling investment risk in itself. What is in GROCs favour is the considerable existing mine infrastructure. Similarly to Clogau St Davids, there is a regulatory risk also, however, Greenland seems to have a more functional regulator than Wales and the nature of the deposit makes the income stream more predictable.

That all said, SB hasn't put a foot wrong in my opinion

@DiverMike I notice that as I am named as one of the top ten rampers then I will take the opportunity to defend myself.

Firstly I'll define my undertanding of a "ramper" as someone who posts an unbalanced, unsubstantiated or exaggerated view of a company, motivated by the prospect of benefiting from a rise in shareprice possibly unjustified by the fundamental prospects of the company. A "paid ramper" being someone who engages in the same activity on the behalf of another party in return for some consideration (a payment of one form or another). Why is ramping a bad thing to do ? Unjustified SP rises are unsustainable and investors who buy in at inflated levels stand to lose, as the inevitable contraction following a "spike".

I can assure you that I am not some form of paid ramper. Most people on here know who I am as my profile on here would easily lead a cursory search to my identity.

As for my posts, they are not wholly positive, I have been, when I have felt necessary critical of some of the actions and communications of the BOD. I try to cite sources and analysis to support any of the opinions that I put forward. Nevertheless, on the balance of probabilities, then it is my assessment that there exists an attractive risk reward ratio for ALBA. The risks are considerable, however, in my view the main risks are regulatory rather than technological. Pre revenue junior mining companies are inherently high risk. The company is many years away from production at Clogau St Davids, nevertheless a successful outcome would render the company in effective control of all new welsh gold other than panned gold (whose provenance would be difficult to verify)

@Alan55.it is as well to recognise risks and to attempt to quantify it. What I'd say about alba at this sp level is the limited downside due to groc. At present, regulatory risk is

At the time of flotation the first ceo offered me a phone chat, however I was out of signal range

Do you know if its possible to directly purchase them into an isa or sipp? With primary bid I can't.

The video explains why the secondary targets have not been pursued yet. They are also included withing the HRA. This has two effects : 1. If the permit is declined then it is possible that all targets will be inaccessible, in which case it would be difficult to see how the project could progress. 2. If the permit is approved then there is nothing stopping the further underground exploration. As such, Clogau project is wholly dependant on the outcome of this permit application.

With respect to current market disfavour with junior miners then the question remains over future value of placings. It is a bit of a chicken and egg situation, much of which is out of Alba's control. Nevertheless Amistoq does have a massive potential but will need deft timing of future capital raises to preserve shareholder value.

Dewatering permit results could be months away. Although obviously groc moves the fundamental value of alba, there is a disconnect with market value. Dewatering is for the time being, out of Alba's hands, so patience is required, though it raises questions as to why an hra assessment was not submitted originally.

What are in Alba's hands...
Application for permissions for the waste tip
Pursuit of the exploration of secondary targets identified by last year's second borehole.

@asllankukeli The SP is of less concern to me than the fundamentals of the business. That's not to say that that I am unconcerned at it, but I'd rather be a holder of an undervalued (imo) company than an overvalued one.

Viviennes appointment is, as I understand, as a consultant to the company to plan the sales process of the anticipated gold production. I'm especially pleased that this action has been taken early and am confident that innovative offtake workflows will come of this.

Its my view that the main challenges at North Wales are regulatory in nature. I've on many occasions offered some constructive criticism of the actions of the company, on here , on other groups and directly. My main concern is that permit applications are not being made in a timely manner and the outcome of such applications is left to lie on the critical path. I would like to see parallel exploration. There may of course be good reasons why this hasn't happened however the shareholders have not been informed of this.

The law not only protects freedom of speech, it also protects people from slander and defamation. I'm not suggesting that you wrote anything of that nature and I dont recall your post, nevertheless I have noticed posts by others which can only be interpreted as a personal attack on members of the BOD. In such a toxic and un-businesslike environment it's no small wonder that the bod answer pre-sent in questions rather than on the spot questions. Nevertheless there still exists the AGM and I am an advocate of shareholder participation. In fact I campaigned for restraint in cap raises (in the shadow of the Bergen facility). If you go back through my posts I think you will find that I have been critical of recent actions such as the timing of the placing. I'm very happy with the methodical approach to exploration to date. GF ? a bit overcautious in my view, but fundamentally honest.

Ryam seeks to promote the myth of the pro ramper. He would have you believe that teams exist, paid to promote interest in the share above any reasonable fundamentally justifiable levels.

I would caution against accepting this belief, as those he classifies as "pro rampers" generally support their assertions with refereced data and do not seek to hide their true identites as they are active on other alba shareholders groups which do not mandate anonymity. It is worth noting that Ryan is not active, or at least not voiceiferously active on groups where anonymity is not required. Perhaps you should ask yourselves why that is ?

Ryan seeks to promote shareholder sentiment towards the abandonment of the welsh gold projects, in order to save us all from the inevitable dilution resulting from capital raises that he asserts would be squandered on overheads and the pursuit of exploration of an unviable resource. He claims to be a shareholder who has taken a large loss. No doubt many could identify with being a shareholder who has taken a paper loss. He presents this purely to gain traction through attempting to get shareholders to identify with his predicament. More recently he has become optimistic of GROC, which ALBA currently owns over 50% interest in. A rational course of action for a shareholder who did not want any further exposure to the Wales gold projects would be to sell their ALBA shares at a loss and buy GROC shares, however he states he prefers not to crystalise such a loss, which is thinking akin to gamblers fallacy.

As recent events , Trump, Putin exemplify, people more readily accept big lies rather than small lies. Given the persistent concerted postings of Ryan , it lends traction to the hypothesis that he has an ulterior motive and that is to seek ALBAs abandonment of the valuable Welsh gold exploration projects. As such he is far more likely to be a "paid de-ramper".

Another account (possibly he controls multiple accounts in order to give the impression that his beliefs are widely accepted and therefore more likely to by accepted by others) has stated that they like his posts because it "brings balance". I would say that the "balance" he brings to this subject is about as valuable as the balance that a spherical earth denier bring to a debate on space travel.

@Lee 1978

There exists quite a lot of borehole data in the public domain at Gwynfynydd, so despite the land access issues then it would be possible to create a reasonable working 3d model of the stratigraphy

meanwhile ... here's Gwynfynydd https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tkj9mBajFPc&t=68s

@Lee1978

Source
https://www.thecrownestate.co.uk/media/3950/mines-royal-interest-wales.pdf

Clogau St Davids and most of the gold belt https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ALBA/licence-extension-over-clogau-st-davids-gold-mine-yx5fc9ftxhru0p6.html until 09/02/2025 "The Exploration Licence has now been extended for a further four years, being the maximum extension possible under the terms of the original licence. As such, the Exploration Licence will now remain in full force and effect until 9 February 2025"

Gwynfynydd http://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/9479F_1-2020-11-19.pdf ranted 20/11/2020 for 6 years extendable by 4 years so 20/11/2026 -> 20/11/2030

It could be the case that a new exploration option could be granted on or before 9th feb 2025, unless a formal exploitation lease has already been put in place. However, it is also possible that it expires and another party obtains a fresh option.

0.55p about 2 years ago

QFI has stated they expect to sell an MSar unit to Utah (Greenfield?)

yes but the filter doesn't work for new investors who may place more weight of credibility on Ryan's posts, which is why, from time to time I challenge his assertions. These new investors, on the publicity from the anticipated good new will provide the momentum for a sustained re rate when the time comes.

Presently there are 7,122,000,000 ALBA shares in issue

160,000,000 warrants ex price 0.75p expired worthless yesterday (depriving the company of £1.2M capraise x7.5 cheaper than the last placing)
591,000,000 warrants at a weighted average exercise price of 0.15p are still in circulation ex dates between 17/12/23 ... 28/08/28

The current market capitalisation of GROC at close 24 Nov is £5,000,000

based on the ALBA shares currently in circulation then at present 0.07p of ALBAs market share value comprises the market value of GROC holding Based on 0.115 p ALBA SP then that's 61% of ALBA's market value.

Capital raises will be necessary at GROC to get Amistoq into operation (2027) and probably to advance TBS
Captial raises will be necessary at ALBA to fund shaft sinking at Llechfraith and possibly trial adit drives elsewhere

Ive posted previously about my NPV fundamental valuation of Amitsoq examining the hypothetical "super placing" case of cap raising which valued post placing £1.12 per GROC share based on Amitsoq

Assuming thats a placing and not a rights issue with ALBA taking up its rights then ALBA's shareholding in terms of shares would remain the same at 5,940,000 but that would represent 9.3% of GROC

Yesterdays market value of ALBA's holding in GROC £2.6M
Post hypothetical GROC mega placing market value of ALBA's holding in GROC £67M

Thought for the day .... Smaller slices bigger pies

I can agree with Ryan that GROC is very undervalued and represents massive upside potential for ALBA

However what Ryan is uncomfortable with is ALBA issuing more shares to fund development of the Wales projects

Be clear, Wales will require more capital raises to complete exploration to the point that a decision on whether to pursue the reopening of the mine at Clogau and thereafter to bring the mine into production. The question for potential new shareholders and existing shareholders is whether those cap raises represent a good expenditure of shares.

Is the thinner slice of a bigger pie going to give me more pie than I have at the moment ?

Petyr Baelish analysis (think of the worst possible motive a person could have, how would those worst possible motives explain their actions)

Prima Facie motives : If Ryan was optimistic about GROC and pessimistic about ALBA's Wales projects then rationally, he would sell his ALBA holding to avoid expected further losses and use the remaining capital to buy GROC shares which he expects to rise.

Worst possible motives : To dampen shareholder sentiment and build opposition to capital raises to fund the development of Wales project (particularly Clogau StD and Gwynfynydd) so that ALBA disposes of that interest paving the way for those on whom he acts on behalf of aquire control of the said mines and thus become the (almost) sole producer for the forseeable future of Welsg Gold.

Actions : post in the early hours for max prominence daily, constant negativity targetted at Wales pr

@ziguerat
how do you figure that out? currently about 0.06p of Alba's SP is made of Alba's GROC holding at GROC's market price
Alba have only a limited number of shares they can issue (as authorised at the last AGM)

so, if the SP went to the level you suggest then it would be cheaper to buy GROC shares (or at least their beneficial ownerhip by proxy) by buying Alba shares.

you could of course be right, but if you add some calculation to your assertion then it would add some credibility

I'd be most pleased to see a blob of it at the AGM, somewhat more inspiring than a phial of concentrate

@tapman
With respect to no licence, both have fixed term exploration options, which require a minimum annual expenditure on exploration and confer the exclusive right to convert into an extraction licence within that period.

Any gold produced in the process of exploration at North Wales can be sold. During exploration, information is the product, not gold.