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Evilknig
Thanks for responding on Newcastle Coal futures. Investing.com has now caught up and is also showing $435
https://uk.investing.com/commodities/newcastle-coal-futures
No way can they keep the current buyback for 4 years, unless coal prices remain at near record highs. If that happens it means gas prices will also have remained at highs - it just isn't going to happen.
So, even with debt paid down, Glencore doesn't maintain a buyback at the current level. It is a fantasy. I'd prefer dividends or reinvestment myself anyway.
By the way, I see Newcastle coal futures up to $425. https://uk.investing.com/commodities/newcastle-coal-futures. Where are you getting $440 figure from, evilking?
Meanwhile, copper down to a disappointing $3.40/lb on new Chinese lockdowns, but also Brent crude down below $95. So 2 of the major 3 factors that decide GLEN's earnings are going in the right direction. As it stands GLEN is on course for a similar performance as in H1, which crushed all previous records.
Agreed Daytradenovice, no point in holding onto cash in this inflationary environment. This cash bonanza wont last (we better all hope for our own personal finances) and as debt is now jut about gone, GLEN has the opportunity to reshape the company for the future.
I very much hope they'll keep expanding the battery metals recycling business they are building.
Possibly some acquisition to expand the nickel business would be good.
I very much get the impression they don't want to expand beyond their core competencies. The movement has all been away from that in recent times, unlike under Glazenberg who snapped up anything he thought was a bargain in the past even if it didn't really fit with the rest of the company - like that petrol station chain in S. Africa.
You say they "like their buybacks" but GLEN have not much of a record of buybacks and have clearly stated they prefer a larger mix of dividends to buybacks when considering 'shareholder returns'.
Bad press for large dividends for sure, especially where coal I involved. But when you don't need investors money and you're headquartered in Switzerland it is unlikely to translate into anything harmful.
So, battery recycling and nickel (copper if any Tier 1 asset is up for sale at a decent price which isn't gonna happen) or pile on the divis, please. I mean, why spend money buying back when the share price is around all time highs?
Evilking,
ah yes, I missed the free bank transfer bit. The 0.7% deposit charge is on other payment forms, including from paypal, debit card etc.
212 may be different to, say Robinhood, but most 'commission free' sites make their money from selling your transactions on to banking darkpools, which means you are charged a slightly bigger spread because they then front run your transactions.
For smaller investors like myself, and presumably 99.99% of 212's clients, this still means saving money per transaction compared to, say, the £3.99 for on ii.
Stamp duty is the same on all brokers, it isn't something they have any control over. I.e. 0% for GLEN and some others, 0.5% for most UK listed companies, 1% for those that are Irish headquartered etc.
They do say a 0.15% currency conversion charge, not 0.5%, which is excellent. https://www.**************/terms/invest
I'd never heard of them until your post.
Generally there is no such thing as commission free trading, but I don't know if 212 hand off your trades to dark pools to front-run you as others do who take no fee per trade or just rely on charging you for transferring money in (0.7% I see)
I must say their 0.15% fx charge looks phenomenal to someone like me typically paying 1.5% with ii and who does a lot in the American markets.
still 5 trading days left to ex-div.
I'll be mildly surprised if it doesn't go into ex-div on 1st Sept > @520p, but with commodity stocks it will all depend on price movements. Coal up again today as was copper, but oil too which is bad for GLEN.
Ex div is 01-Sept-22 https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/ex-dividend-date-search.py?searchTerm=GLEN
Whether or not GLEN pushes on from here depends on 3 major factors.
1) The oil price. Oil DOWN is good for GLEN.
2) The price of copper. It is fine where it is, higher would of course be better. Global stocks are low and the green energy transition demands more copper and will do for years.
3) The price of Newcastle Coal Futures. Anything above $350 average in the second half of 2022 will mean GLEN exceeds expectations this year. The price recently moved up to $416, but did drop to $360 just a couple of weeks ago.
The fly in the ointment is that coal can't possibly stay at those prices, but for how long will it remain high as gas and coal supply chains re-jig themselves? 3 months? 6 months? 12 or 18 months maybe (bog help us and our energy bills). Coal is high because countries are burning it to generate electricity right now to conserve gas supplies and/or because nat. gas is just too expensive.
I've followed, traded and held GLEN for years. My personal recommendation right now is accumulate under 450p and think about selling portions of your holding at anything above 550p, while keeping a close eye on those 3 major factors above. Once the coal price starts dropping significantly, GLEN too will come down, and even with points 1 and 2 going in its favour, I wouldn't care to say where it might stop.
So if you don't already have a holding my advice would be to buy at a safe, low level and be prepared to sell depending on those factors (or if something new arises to change the outlook) and don't get caught in the potential value trap I posted about a couple of weeks ago.
In fact the page on the Glencore site is still there, but how you reach it via the new menu structure I have no idea. I short-cut to it using Google. https://www.glencore.com/investors/shareholder-centre/analyst-coverage
Unfortunately, unless you're a customer of the analyst, there's really no info to be had by clicking on the links. You just have to catch the press release on the day when they publish their new reports.
Major broker equity analysts who undertake research about Glencore.
Bank of America Jason Fairclough
Barclays Capital Ian Rossouw
Bernstein Bob Brackett
BMO Capital Markets Alexander Pearce
Citigroup Ephrem Ravi
Credit Suisse Danielle Chigumira
Deutsche Bank Securities Liam Fitzpatrick
Exane BNP Paribas Sylvain Brunet
Jefferies & Co Christopher La Femina
JP Morgan Cazenove Dominic O'Kane
Liberum Capital Ben Davis
Morgan Stanley Alain Gabriel
RBC Capital Markets Tyler Broda
Société Générale Christian Georges
Standard Bank Tim Clark
UBS Myles Allsop
Thanks for the response, David. Yes, I know about the Broker ratings tab above, but Bank of America isn't covered there. In fact there are only about 5 or 6 analysts covered out of the 15 or 16 that cover Glencore.
I do appreciate LSE's efforts to cover those brokers, it is a good and reliable resource for research and I know of know better, but it is far from complete, unfortunately.
Glencore's site used to have a tab for analysts which cover it, but zero information beyond it. I believe that disappeared rather than was fixed in the latest version of the web site.
I have no resource to find out this info apart from occasionally catching announcements on ii's web site. Its a pretty ridiculous situation, because analysts do influence the share price of these larger companies. Not so much with their price targets, but by reiterations or cutting/raising of their targets and BUY/SELL/HOLD recomendations.
I posted this elsewhere back on June 22 when I was predicting @600p target for GLEN and advising people to accumulate at any price under @500p.
Since this post many things have happened, including the bringing forward of some of FY2022's payments to this Sept, a steep fall in the copper price and a doubling of the forecast unit production costs of copper.
In the last few days, Newcastle coal future have come off their highs. I believe this is expected at this time of year as Northern hemisphere winter deliveries tend to be negotiated in July. However, I'm no coal expert and if anyone reading is I'd be interested in your views.
"With all the recent chat about Glencore's dividends set to at least double from current levels based on their dividend policy and previously under-estimated earnings from coal, there is an elephant in the room that people should also be aware of, I feel.
GLEN's dividends are very delayed compared to others. GLEN only declares dividends once the FY figures are in, and then sets two equal payments to be made, the 2nd a full 9 or 10 months after the year end they are being paid for. This isn't normal practice, most miners, indeed most companies, pay an interim dividend (or three if they pay quarterly) based on expectations during the year with a final dividend balancing everything out once the FY results are in which has often resulted in a special dividend also.
This is (partly) why we've seen miners like RIO and AAL already paying eyewatering dividend levels while Glencore is still to pay the last dividend for FY2021 which ended long before the Russo-Ukraine war elevated coal prices even higher and at about 4.4% GLEN's yield seems miserly in comparison (4.4% vs 16% and 10% respectively). Also since the end of FY2021 Glencore took over BHP and AAL's 67% ownership of a major Colombian coal mine for what is now looking like chump-change.
Its a bit of a simplistic view, but for the purpose of this warning it gets across the picture as I see it.
So, I feel the expected double-digit yield from Glencore next year is why the stock has outperformed its sector peers over recent times, given the markets supposedly look around about 18 months ahead, with the higher yields already priced into others but the value in Glencore still to come.
However, at some point, coal is going to come back down to far more reasonable prices as global markets shuffle supply chains. A process that wont be quick, but wont take forever either.
At that point markets will start to mark down GLEN on reduced expected earnings in the out years, but, due to their divi policy, GLEN will still be showing a huge yield. Because of the policy, when coal prices drop GLEN will declare a lower divi, with no attempt to maintain the previous level, that isn't how their divi policy works.
This creates a potential future value trap if you don't understand that policy and buy in the belief that GLEN may try to maintain divi levels. They wont"
David George, can you give me a link to verify that Bank of America price target?
I've been expecting target price downgrades, especially from the most bullish like Barclays, but maintaining a BUY rating at any price under @500p. BoA raising the price but maintaining a neutral stance is a bit of a strange outlier.
Wow - a new poster advocating BUY.
Here are some things you might want to ponder before putting your cash into SLE.
"...the existing Nembe Creek Tunnel line from OML 18 to the Bonny Terminal suffers from high levels of downtime and eye-watering pipeline losses (due to vandalism) which averaged 73 per cent in 2021."
Yet the fact was the company SLE bought the OML 18 share from cited the losses as the reason for sale and also that they couldn't get true figures out of Eroton and had no sight of them themselves. Check out the public domain documentation.
The only solution was to bypass Eroton completely, hence ACOES. How delayed is it now? How much have SLE has to put into it to try and make it happen? And does it really bypass Eroton, the operator or can the losses just occur in a different place?
The suspicion always was that organized and systematic theft was at play, hidden by the 'official' figures, far more than any 'vandalism' - which all that increased and costly security spend absolutely failed to stem, apparently. How could that be?
Indeed, the acknowledged losses figure just keeps on growing - all the better for justifying the massive overspend on ACOES though, innit? Let's not even mention the continual failure to deliver on time and get it up and running.
Don't put any money here that you aren't prepared to lose entirely because the same manager who made all the above mistakes and many, many, many more, including the announcement of a huge share buy in an RNS withdrawn months later as it never actually happened, is still in charge.
An accusation of staggering incompetence would be charitable. Although one has to admire the millionaire lifestyle and salary OF has enjoyed for a decade on the back of his running of SLE, loans from the company and use of properties they own. Properties nowhere near any oil fields, by the way. He certainly has talents, but they aren't anything to do with execution in the oil patch and turning a profit.
Expect a rebuttal from Alaric The All Knowing now. But when you read it, consider that he pooh-poohed all warnings about pipeline losses as de-ramping and irrelevant when the original OML 18 deal was being done. Talk about blinkered! Then look again at that 73% figure and the amount of shareholder cash piled into ACOES (rather than the promised dividends), a system that was never needed according to him, as there were no losses.
My average is higher than that, Chaogeo, and I don't plan on leaving either. Every rate rise pays the banks extra profits for the cash on deposit. Barclays benefits quicker than most because of its US exposure.
P.S. My post below missed out the word 'Goldman' when I spoke about them selling a client's 575m Barclays shares. A big seller like that is bound to depress the market, especially as they were prepared to take less than what was the market value when it was announced. It'd be nice if Goldman also announced when they'd finished selling.
https://www.reuters.com/article/barclays-stock-idCNL3N2VV3RR 28 March. Should be all done by now?