Member Info for Dubliner

Not the most logical thread title to be discussing future wells on GLA / GWA but here goes.

I think Jaykay you are correct that the reason for change of plans on GLA / LANFAX drills are completely related to the Spirit farm in. Slides 5 and 6 of the GWA farm-in presentation show the before and after plans. The planning now has to be done holistically to take account of Spirit and their funding – they now have a vested interest / say in the overall plans.

Slide 5 suggests a Lincoln drill would have been next in a HUR only scenario but making use of that (in oil flow success case) had a dependency on a Gas export solution and based on a HUR only funding capability would have been Q4 2021 for First Gas (FGAS) then FOIL in 2022.

The Spirit funds (and their access to a pipeline) now allow the Gas export solution to be completed earlier and FGAS and FOIL for GWA are shown in parallel as Q4 2020 through Q1 2021.

Another thing I only just spotted relates to the ‘GWA Tie-back’ task which started this quarter according to slide 5. It shows there is a requirement for ordering (and no doubts some funds for that) of Long Lead Items (LLIs) in the period up to Q3 2019. Now look at slide 4 in the same deck titled ‘Consideration Carry Mechanics’. This shows that ‘HUR’ are only carried for $46.9M of the $187.5M costs of this activity (overall cost seems very high!). That is exactly a quarter of the costs so ‘HUR’ are on the hook to contribute $46.9M which is around £35M; that is roughly the cost of one drill!

So that could explain why we are easing off on LANFAX drills and conserving funds for a larger session of LANFAX drilling in H1 of 2021.

In summary we need to stop thinking HUR only scenarios now as the Spirit deal is done and the powers that trusted to be planning the most effective way of spending the EPS income (fingers crossed!) and Spirit funds.

Finally, it feels to me that our current S.P is not very reflective of the benefits the Spirit deal has brought us so hoping for a pick up from here.

Above is AIMHO and I know bugger all about the oil business but can read a plan and use a calculator!.

That tickled me Ricfle. Very good news........

It feels a blooming long time for refurbish of a boat that already was designed for such work.

I was a Mariana holder. Should point out major difference, the MARL management delayed then played down the PEA and SP manipulated down to make the SSL offer attractive. Management were in cahoots with SSL and made sure they did nicely out of that deal.
No way is there a parallel here, NM pushing the view that we (I am back as a holder!) can go it alone and that should maximise the price that any takeover would have to be to succeed.

Ah Sam, mix up understood.
Yes you right then. The Customer probably won't release their test results to us - they will either say yay or nay and we all hoping for the former!

Sam, not correct. Both samples are for Customers to test as per below from last RNS.
What we will do is test a small part of those samples ourself just in case the Customer says it is dross (so we know we did not give them a bad sample);

Bulk Sampling (Market Development)
Bulk sampling completed for first commercial-scale trials of natural pozzolan and perlite by potential offtakers:
100 tons of natural pozzolan mined and supplied to a potential large customer for commercial-scale testing.

Ok so what are we waiting on.
Submission of the mine plan should have happened or be imminent.
As Min said the Perlite sample was being sent off and there might be a 4 week delay as they work out how to 'grade / filter' the size of the sample (particle size) to meet the requirements of one of the two Perlite MOU Customers.

So up to 4 weeks, then over to them to test then they scratch their head and if they like it maybe commit to an offtake. Again imminent.

So as for the Pozz sample to a potential Customer then no 'sizing / filtering' they take it and mix it with their Portland cement and do some testing. Timeline for that unknown but we know that the strength test stuff we had tested is based on multiple weeks of strength testing. Then if they like it there would be some legal docs to agree for MOU or Offtake if we are really lucky.

So yes it is a ball-ache waiting but this is make or break time.

To Comeonsres's question about why S.P not reflecting things.
AIM has no patience, mining back end of Q2 next year is a long way off for most investors. If we get an offtake then things should move.
A warning though as most know - this could go either way. If our Customers walk away we are dead in the water coz we have no income other than hang around and wait for Junction. If the Customers do want our Pozz / Perl we are in Business.

Two new contract wins and Director leaving.....

Hi Min. Always been 100% straight ref holdings so I went from 17M to 18M but reduced to a firm 15M holding in last couple of weeks. Not that I am not still positive but age and promise to myself to modify risk profile and recent disappointment on KOD made me trim back. If things go to plan will not curse that I sold some. Would still be a happy teddy Bear. Thanks for the list and best of luck to all here. Come on PC we would love some great news.

#Losesalot. I would imagine they share the admin costs fairly (I am an investor in both for the record).
Also please don't think SRES is a small Company than TYM. If you are basing that comment on their respective Share prices then that is not the right way to do it. Look at number of shares in issue and multiply by Share Price then you get the Market Capitilasation which is the correct way to work out how big a Company is. SRES is right now exactly twice as big as TYM - just for accuracy.
Good to see twitch in the S.P here though!

Ref Angela and Rodster posts.
Angela interesting analysis and only thing I would question is when the 9 month starts. You mentioned last April but think it is from when the mine plan is submitted which is any time now. So we all hope that is reduced due to the new processes otherwise we are at end H1 2019.

Rodster minor point. The MOUs will have been in writing but they are not a legal agreement. The key thing we want is formal binding off-take agreements. I feel we might get these before we get the license / permits based on the bulk sample testing perhaps this year even..Those prospective buyers will want to secure their access to the product. I believe this will open up financing options for us.

GLA

I just came across this - puts our part of the world in the spotlight again;

https://uk.webfg.com/news/news-and-announcements/major-gas-discovery-off-west-shetlands-for-total-ineos-sse--3500916.html

Hi Sam, would be nice if you are right particularly ref the pozz mou. I do think info on mine plan and the Perlite stuff that is being done will be reported on soon....
I probably got as many as I feel comfortable with right now and no way does the current S.P reflect the potential here..

Few things in the RNS I did not understand. Not clear on what they mean by that $178.6M being unrestricted. Was this contingency / is it spoken for to pay interest payments or something else I wonder....
Rushing for work so will take good read later.

ADUK. Not sure if you can get BBC stuff in frog land but just been a prog on Radio 4 called 'Cassandras of the crash' with four or five folks who claim to have predicted the financial crisis. If you can get it retrospectively might be worth while. A few ego's on there (well the Yank was) but worth a listen and the presenter asked them to predict where next crisis will hit and when.

Not posted here for a while. I sold some of my holding prior to the maiden resource estimate. I just felt need to de-risk in this one. I must admit I had hoped for a large estimate than that based on the length of time we have been drilling and what the neighbours (Birmian) have achieved. Will the benefit of a few days of reflection, and looking at the presentation that BA gave (it was linked here on Friday) I am feeling a lot more positive and am very likely to add back here. I felt it was a good solid presentation and I do believe they will make headway to mining quickly. Obviously how this is funded is an issue but it seems to me our main investor is happy and they (PRC?) just wanted diverse / resilient supplies of Lithium.

I can see upcoming catalysts for S.P recovery like the Bulk Sample processing / results and the metallurgy stuff from Australia too. Also it seems that Birmian will get a partner soon and if / when they do I believe we will re-rate accordingly. I don't want to start any new conspiracy theories but am sure the Resource Estimate can quickly be improved on with more drilling - Bernard emphasized that a lot of times. If we can get some good drill results in an have a resource update sometime next year (be great to jump to being in the top 10 resource size wise) then things will look a whole lot different and those horrid few days of S.P drops will be a distant memory.

All the best to holders here...

Thanks for info AGEOS and SGD27
Glad you think things are positive AGEOS as was not sure if that patent info was a plus or minus!

Hoping for more updates from Company in next couple of weeks.

On hols catching up on posts. Great to see the arguments have quietened down...

Very good posts from Ricfle and wellwell. I too gave the deal a thumbs up in a recent post.

Will be happy to see AM sail though as getting a bit twitchy.

Below statement confirms we are speaking to multiple cement Companies and 100 tonne sample provided. We just need to hope they like the product now. I believe S.P not reflecting this progress.

"The Project has now moved into a more advanced stage. Mine planning is underway. Testing and marketing Memoranda of Understanding have been signed with two separate buyers of perlite and discussions are underway with cement companies interested to secure new sources of natural Pozzolan "

What an interesting day and turn of events. Been travelling to Bordeaux for large part of the day and I only saw text from colleague saying HUR were 10% up and presumed FPSO had moved. Very surprised at the farm in.
Good post there WhichWayNow.
Also WWN right Viz-a-viz (some may not get that) johnnieFPs comments (that person most shrewd) about Dr T interview and looking back on it now me thinks someone had a little knowledge there!
Can see why some might not readily see the pluses here but for me thumbs up.

Good info/research AGEOS and interesting timing!
Presume you, like me, would agree a 100 tonne sample has interesting potential.

Been travelling most of the day and first chance to post.
Happy with this news and we should hear more in a month.

Hi Ageos, take a look at RNS f 22nd Jan this year. Below is part of the summary;

Commenting today, Executive Chairman Patrick Cheetham said: "This is a very important milestone in our testwork. The CS pozzolan was tested using some of the most reactive aggregates known in the western USA. Substituting 25% CS natural pozzolan for Portland cement gave an average 96% reduction in expansion compared to control samples using 100% Portland cement after the prescribed 14 days test period. The performance of the CS pozzolans in this test places it amongst the best commercially available pozzolans, industrial or natural, and will assist the Company in positioning its products in the market."Â