Tower Resources #TRP, Hardman & Co and Edison speak at London South East’s Oil & Gas event Watch Now
1750 - it was 12p for a reason, existing onshore was underperforming, tax etc. Hindsight is wonderful, if we had that we wouldn’t be here but on our own island. But hey, the price is just above 40p, things look pretty good now so pays your money and take your chances, all I wanted to do was point out who was booking an actual profit and who was creating a ~0% paper holding today. If the second test works it will likely be a good buy, but it will be a roller coaster for LTH’s.
MOD: Of course, if you're right on the fundamentals HUR will recover and more. But to focus on what you're actually referring to, i.e. a short attack via rapid sell's, that's something else and it's Friday and I can't just keep educating retail investors for free......... so will just refer you to this link. Again, HUR is NOT subject to this... Their SP is tanking BECAUSE fundamentals look terrible.
Hmmm.. Muddy Waters are not shorting HUR. If you want to know how they short, it's simple, they SHORT then they go live on to Bloomberg to explain why, then they post documents on their website backing-up why, then they respond to management rebuttals then... If you have never heard of Muddy Waters visit their site. It explains how they short and attack. They don't do it quietly, anf HUR isn't one of their targets, it's already busted.
If folks conclusions were that the CMD in 2019 was correct/good/fantastic folks would have held at 52p at close on 12 July 2019. They've already been proved very wrong, so strange to say the previous CMD was fine.
Oh, and TLF is the only BB trying to properly value HUR properly, I know it's rubbished on here, presumably investors here use divining rods.... or sand.
BBM: There was 'agro' at the previous CMD when one analyst asked about watercut and the fact that the analogue mentioned in the CMD presentation was way behind Lancaster. At first he was blanked, then he was heckled, all very professional, but he persevered... these guys are clearly worried (and this was way back yonder at 7% wct)
Don't believe me? Follow this link and go to 1:43:30 and make your own mind-up....
"We are all doomed if you read most of the rubbish on here so I topped up another 150k of shares today although I am 50% down on the rest worth a punt at this price I hope."
What a sophisticated investment strategy... and two 'reccommend's' to-boot!- why didn't you just visit an online casino? Unless you didn't really buy more...
ObB - apologies you are correct, there are no sell-ratings, but two *speculative* buys switched to holds with large corrections. The point is that there is ample evidence as to why the price is falling to explain it. If folks are saying that there is watercut scaremongering then that too is false. The watercut development was not in the HUR models (despite what they say), their own technical papers described perched water as immobile and their Lancaster models, even the low-case look simply wrong. That is all before GWA GLA and etc. & etc. If people think HUR is cheap then BUY IT, moaning about it doesn’t make sense.
WW - there is simply no evidence that there is price manipulation going on. The volumes are huge (I.e, too expensive to do) and the reasons for the drop are very public and two analysts have explained why they are now a “sell”. You can disagree, and that is fine, but conspiracies simply don’t happen like this. To believe that is simply a denial of what is actually happening.
Why did you buy in just a few days ago? If it was on technicals that doesn’t make sense as direction and testing new resistance is down at 10p, and on fundamentals there is lots of evidence and discussion that it isn’t trustworthy, brokers are switching direction, holders are despairing. Unless there is something others don’t know or you’re simply gambling? Nothing wrong with a punt, just curious.
Is the reason for the state of play today not pretty simple?
Investors were told Lancaster EPS had plateau for 3-years in a low case model (36mmbbl), but with rapidly rising watercuts from the outset, investors now worry that the models they are using to calculate reserves are simply wrong.
Investors were told that the combined GLA area had gross reserves and resources of 1,758mmboe, but after the drilling campaign they worry that this may be seriously wrong.
Investors were told that the GWA had 1,539mmboe of gross reserves and resources, but worry that this may be seriously wrong.
Are investors simply worried that the basis for valuing the entire company has fallen-over and the share price has moved accordingly?
I don’t think there should be too much surprise regarding the SP movement given the sequence of news events, and there is no evidence of leaks. To summarise…
29 Nov: NO NEWS. Closing price 46.2p, a high since 23rd September, i.e. no sign of news leaking.
2 Dec: WW result, P&A. No material news on production. Closing price 36.5p
13 Dec: WATERCUT of 25-30% in 7z, ‘minimal’ in 6. CHANCE OF LC P&A FLAGGED. Close 33.16p
Note: The 13 December update provides SH’s until 3 January to exit at 32.63p, THE PRICE REMAINS STEADY DESPITE THE NEWS, after the Xmas break however there is a steady decline as the market takes a negative view as it digests the news and sell all the way down to 21.1p yesterday. It *might* be the case that watercut news was leaking, although some more cerebral BB’s (TLF) began seriously discussing a negative outlook scenario during this period, so that’s a much more likely explanation.
Those that continued to HOLD believed that the news was NOT negative. There is no need for conspiracy theories, this is how price action works.
Today: OGA confirmed to have issued LC P&A, delay requested. Price currently 50% of the period 13-Dec to 3-Jan when all this was mentioned and in the public domain.
The classic situation now happening is those that continue to hold are now getting close/at a situation where they only have currently a paper loss and will therefore decide to hold whatever happens to avoid a realised loss (been in that situation many times), hoping sentiment turns, possibly at the CMD, as realising the loss is increasingly less relevant.
Why are you guys so aggressive about TLF? Is that not what these boards are meant to be? This one smothers any opinion other than that of management, which is a ridiculous way for investors to decide on what stocks to pick. Folks can disagree with a post on TLF, but nobody has articulated why. Most effort here is in trying to smear the board and the posters. Not what most would call good behaviour.
I never really bought in to the HUR EPS ‘test program’ without them running more PLT’s. The technology is there and other fractured reservoir operators do it. Why aren’t they doing that before contemplating drilling even more producers?