RE: Keeps Coming Back To Akimov20 Apr 2022 13:21
russian article need to use chrome translate to read it:
https://www.finam.ru/analysis/marketnews/petropavlovsk-i-vse-taki-restrukturizaciya-20220420-120000/
Petropavlovsk - and yet restructuring?
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Petropavlovsk
229 news
Today it became known that Gazprombank transferred to the Ural Mining and Metallurgical Company (UMMC) the rights to claim a $200 million loan to Petropavlovsk.
Thus, to all appearances, the company has taken the path of restructuring its debt to GPB, and there is no question of selling assets yet.
In our opinion, the decision with UMMC in the current situation seems to be relatively positive, compared to more unpleasant options. What happens next is the big question.
On the one hand, the transfer of obligations of a company (and not a bank, which is important) that has not yet fallen under sanctions may allow Petropavlovsk to avoid a technical default on obligations. On the other hand, the UMMC, most likely, didn't "fit" into the situation just like that. It is possible that the company has views on the assets of Petropavlovsk. And here you can speculate a little, fantasize.
In the Russian Federation, against the backdrop of recent events, activity in the field of M&A is growing. Companies that can afford to spend money are beginning to pick up the quality assets of departed foreigners. The cases of the same Rusagro and Etalon speak for themselves.
Most likely, UMMC is all right with the cash because of the strong copper market. Therefore, the company may well seize the opportunity and get a quality asset, which, in our opinion, is Petropavlovsk. And the deal with GPB could be the first step in that direction.
More possible options
Relatively positive. In the face of UMMC, Petropavlovsk will get a strong sole major beneficiary. This will eliminate the problem of corporate conflicts, help solve problems with sales and service obligations.
Relatively negative. As you know, UMMC is a non-public company, and if Petropavlovsk ends up in its perimeter, then you will have to comply with the general corporate ethics. That is, to become non-public - buyback and delisting. And for some reason there is a feeling that the UMMC will not want to buy it "at a high price".
Negative. UMMC can wait until Petropavlovsk "defaults" and take the company for debt.
Perhaps we are wrong, whether this will come true or not - we'll see. In the meantime, in 2022, Petropavlovsk will have to pay off Eurobonds in the amount of about $230 million. The deadline is November.
Since the situation with GPB has begun to be resolved (there is still a line for $87 million), until November, the company, apparently, can more or less calmly look for a further way out of the situation.
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