Member Info for dorfan01

Kaiser B. Part of being a successful investor is to speculate correctly.I share with JLP Positive his speculation about Bauba which I believe will come to pass. If you did your homework correctly you have found out that Matthew Phosa serves on both boards Jubilee and Bauba and it is inconceivable that Bauba would do a J/V with any one other than Jubilee

Even if Mikie and my posts are on the optimistic side and we don't achieve 3p earnings this year it matters not.The strong growth is to follow this year and shareholders, will do well to heed the sound advice of JLP p.
There are always risks to any venture but the overall risk in life is NOT to take a RISK.
I know of only a few people who have been financially successful in life without taking a risk.They INHERITED money.

Mikie your PGM figures are very close to mine and I too am hopeful for better chrome profits (I think we receive a portion of the increased selling price). You have not mentioned cobalt which could be an added bonus.70 Million pounds equates to earnings of 3p which I am hoping for.
AS far as I can determine from the WH Ireland brokers note Jubilee will pay just over 10 % tax year 2021 rising to 19% in year 2022 and 22% in year 2023.

mogli based on the WH Ireland brokers note the tax rate is way below 28%.I have retired as a CA in South Africa so have not kept up with tax allowances Jubilee may enjoy. When I get a chance I will look into the South African side but Zambia would be a problem.

I see Alpal12 on the other thread has estimated earnings after tax for 2021 at 2.1p, very close to WH Ireland earnings of 1.9p.
I personally would be surprised if earnings is as low as either figure as I am looking at a higher figure,taking into account new copper earnings,improved prices of metals,and increased production on the first half year figures.
While I am aware that the major leap in earnings will incur from the 2022 year, my calculation of 2021 year's earnings will be closer to 3p.
I would be interested in other opinions,as I will be disappointed if earnings end up as low as 2.1p

Alpha Macro (June 17,2021 at 7.37)
China to auction COPPER,ALUMINIUM and ZINC from strategic reserves to dampen commodity prices.
This is at best a temporary measure as they will need to buy to rebuild their reserves.
In my opinion great news as we know about the drop that has taken place and have now something to look forward to seeing what happens to prices when they need to rebuild their stocks.

My son attended the Zoom AGM meeting and while there was no final decision announced as to the J/V it looked as if everything as coming together and there may be a RNS shortly.
Everyone seemed to be very excited about the proposed deal
We will wait and see

JLP positive
I agree with your analysis 'its the market stupid' .In South Africa our rand has gone from 13,60 to14.35 which means in Rand terms we have hardly suffered any great loss with prices (what we have lost in metal prices falling, we have gained on the currency differential yet in South the share on the JSE has dropped more than on the LSE.
I don't know about the pound but I am certain you must have had some help with the dollars strength against the pound.
Anyway to date I have been wiser than most shareholders in seeing the Jubilee potential ,allowing me to buy Jubilee shares at lower prices. Remember the time to buy shares is when the market is negative to the share for the wrong reasons.

I believe there will be shortages of copper and PGM'S as the wold recovers, and prices of metals all metals will soon reverse their downward spiral.
It looks like the market does not buy the Jubilee Story.
As a poker player must decide whether it is time to go all in or cut and run.
I am all in.

When institutional investors started investing in JLP they specifically requested 6 monthly reports.At that stage JLP was issueing quarterly reports.
Institutions have access to information that we the private investors do not.
They prefer the half yearly reports as it gives them a better chance to pick up shares at a lower price if the company is doing well.
That is only my reading of their request.I may be wrong

Great article by Simon Thompson but unfortunately his use of the WH Ireland brokers note to arrive at 1.9p earnings per share as the earnings for Jubilee in the current year is misleading and understated according to my calculations.
WH Ireland increased revenue from PGM'S to 113.3 pounds for the year an increase on first half revenues of 6.5 million pounds.We have been told that Windsor 8 treats 35000 tonnes pm of chrome tailings and that only started in October 2020 and Inyoni 1 has continued to increase monthly treatment of tailings. I am not sure Inyoni 2 will increase production for this year
Total profits for the second half year is calculated to increase by 5.5 million pounds on first half year profits.
Our profits increase by 5.5 Million pounds ? How is that possible given the following facts
1 Prices of metals we are dealing in all soared in the second half year. I do not calculate price increases on a monthly basis but certain shareholders do, and I have seen calculations that the increased earnings from this windfall could exceed 20 Million pounds
2 Copper earnings were 1.8 Million pounds in the first half year using copper tailings from individual parties.I have difficulty in calculating what the increase in earnings from copper and cobalt will be but I am sure that is more than 5.5 Million pounds
3
Revenue and earnings should increase from PGM'S and Chrome due to increased treatment of tailings as mentioned in my first paragraph.
Am I correct or just too optimistic ?

Jolly JLP positive gave you sound advice.
In South Africa Orion minerals was a buy suggestion made to me by a stockbroker.By the way it is also listed on the Australian Stock Exchange and the CEO has the gift of the gab.
I never invest in a share unless I do some homework first.I did my homework ,and like JLP positive, I found little to excite me about the company. JLP has been through fund raising to raise capital but I predict that Orien will need to issue far more shares than Jubilee did. I believe we have a winner in JLP and after weighing the 2 options I decided rather to increase my holding in Jubilee,as I am convinced that Jubilee is the better investment for reasons set out so well by JLP positive.
I came to the same conclusions as he has, and I believe Orion is an out and out gamble

Hi Gambler5
I think an apology from me is in order. I had a bad day and going through the posts I had noted TIger by t t posts and took it out on you.I am still not as pessimistic on Tjate as you are but agree that it is now irrelevent and plays no part in the the calculation of the Jubilee share price.Any deal will come as a fantastic bonus.Having said that Tjate is on theEastern limb and may still be part of the bigger picture.

The Gambler 5 .Why are you back deramping the share?
You said you had sold out and would not buy the share at over 6p.
Also where do you get your drivel on Tjate .I try to do my homework before I buy into a share and saw a valuation on Tjate which my broker sent to me, drafted by a well known analyst whom I prefer to believe.
Tell me where you got your information?
The proof is in the pudding.Leon has delivered BIG and your comments see rather petty

Mickie there has to be increased production.The new site at Inyoni has been running for at least 2 months and reported to be able to treat 80000 tons a month. That is a big production increase for this period and HUGE going forward.Also I know Colin can get excited but he must have some knowledge how Jubilee will be able to treat 250000 tonnes of chrome pm mentioned in his last report.

JLP Look a my post on the rise I don't think there will be an RNS tomorrow

With LSE closed I hope there will be a follow through in London tomorrow.
I believe(but cannot be sure) that it is the result of an interview between Moneyweb(an influential institution in South Africa) and CEO of Tharisia in which the super profits from PGM's is discussed in detail.
The penny may have dropped in South Africa that perhaps Jubilee is sharing in those super profits which most of us posters believe.

Jonah You are correct about the original use of Sable to treat ore coming from the DRC where Glencor mined their copper.
It has been modified and is now treating the ore Jubilee has acquired in Zambia.
I just want to clear up that Jubilee is in no way connected to ore in the DRC

Like many contributors on this board I have most of my funds in Jubilee but is there justification for my optimism? I ask myself the same question everyday as the share at times seems to stumble.When that happens I end up buying more as I believe it is the most under valued resource share, a decision I arrive at with the information we have a our disposal.What is that information? and why do other investors not see what I do.
Tjate - Jubilee owns 63% of this potential mine which covers 3 farms and contains 70 million ounces of PGM'S underground.Many attach no value to this investment which was valued at $1.1 billion dollars in 2012 but with the strong prices of the PGM'S I feel us shareholders will in due course get a pleasant surprise.But Tjate plays no part in my deliberations.
PGM'S and Chrome-We have the previous half years results to try and figure out what profits we can expect from this source.
28187 tons of chrome tailings produced a profit of 26.4 pounds from PGM'S and 1.3 pounds from chrome. Bullster a creditable poster from the other discussion group calculates using the same production figures the profit should soar to $108000 in the present half year only due to price increases .I believe there will be production increases.Colin has gone on record to say Jubilee will eventually be treating 250000 tonnes of chrome tailings per year. At that stage our earnings from chrome and PGM's given the same prices should be in the region of 245 million pounds and has Leon not said that our copper earnings should exceed our PGM and chrome earnings.At 25000 tonnes per annum which Leon has stated is the goal I think they will. What about Cobalt Zinc Vanadium ad Lead?And further expansion .Yes I am optomistic

Mickie I agree but for a different reason. Since that WH Ireland report ,which I believe was completely and hopelessly wrong in understating the earnings for the period January to June 2021,where they calculated a fall in earnings as compared to July to December 2020.
That is the only report we have to go on in respect of the earnings for the current half year and in my opinion that has been a dampener as far as the share price is concerned.
Correct earnings for the present half year should instill more confidence a give a boost to the share price for a company which has SO MUCH going for it.
I can only hope I am right as regards to the expected earning