Member Info for dorfan01

Uktuman I suggest you read my post on what to expect the from the RNS.
I fear many are hoping for too much .I thought that production of PGM'S would rise by a considerable amount in the second half of the year but my expectations were shattered when it was pointed out to me that Inyoni1 would close to make adjustments to the plant, to enable a large increase in production in the new tax year. What was done will increase the value of the share but the increase will only show up in tax year 2022.
I believe we are now looking at earnings of about 54 million pounds for the year which is more then WH Ireand calculated in their brokers note due to increases in price of all metals Jubilee produces.
If there unhappy shareholders so be it.
I am also certain that when details of the earnings in 2022 is announced the share price will be closer to 30p than 23p
I know the production in Tax year 2022 will more than compensate for loss of earnings in Tax year 2021.

Jammer drew my attention to the RNS of the 3rd June in which shareholders were informed of the closure of Inyoni1, to make the necessary changes to enable the plant to increase treatment of chrome tailings to 80000 tonnes per month.
The effect of this decision is that it will have a negative effect on Y\E 2021 profits but will be positive for future earnings.
Shareholders will do well not to dwell on the negatives but rather to look at the full picture with the major increase in profits about to begin with the increased production of Chrome ,PGM's ,Copper and Cobalt.
With the building of Inyoni2 , in addition to changes being made on Inyoni 1, Chrome and PGM profits will could well increase by over 300% depending on prices.
What an exciting prospect with Copper and Cobalt about to leave their starting blocks.
WH Ireland may have known about the closure of Inyoni 1 in their latest brokers note in which they calculated earnings at 1.9p per share, but I am convinced even with NO increase in production of chrome and PGM's for the second half of the 2021 Tax Year the large % increase in all the metals Jubilee produces will see profits greater than 1.9p
Not long to wait to find out.

Jammer thank you I have just read 3 June RNS and now believe I need to revise down my PGM production figure.
I still believe that Jubilee will beat the 1.9p earnings figure calculated in the WH Ireland brokers note.
The actual earnings may be less then some shareholders expect,given the numbers that have been announced by other platinum companies, so I hope Leon will be able to give new production figures going forward.
The growth for the next two years should be mind boggling and hopefully all thinking shareholders will come to the same conclusion that I have

Homey please tell me where Leon said PGM production would be above 50000 ounces.
I again listened carefully to his interview of the 4th June and all I heard him say as regards PGM's, was that they very busy with construction of plants to increase PGM production.He also very upbeat about copper production so cannot believe there is any problem there either.I think the lack of news is making shareholders jittery,but there must be good reasons for the delay.It may be that he is busy with another deal.

Billyboy The production I added increased the earnings by about 7p so I would still be higher then WH Ireland at 2.3p as opposed to their estimate of 1.9p. What I need to find out how production could be down when we had almost an extra 3.5 months production from Windsor 8. It would also mean we had no production from Inyoni 2 and we failed to increase production at Inyoni 1(which I think is highy unlikely) and also I believed that our JV with Northam only ended in June 2021.
BUT as I have said repeatedly the main increase in the production of all metals starts now so I am not that concerned.
The next six months will clearly show the potential of Jubilee'
Both Leon and Colin have clearly stated we have the ability to treat 300000 tonnes of chrome tailings as well as the ability to produce 25000 tons of copper,so that should with Cobalt and Chrome,but without new ventures the potential to take earnings per share to 5p
Lots to look forward to

Homey Did he give any reason why it should be so low .I must admit I missed him saying that Pgm production is above 50000 ounces. I can only hope it is well above 500000 ounces or I agree my figures are too high

Homey we will see .Yes my calculations included tax at 11% which was the % WH Ireland calculated in the first half year figures. South African corporate tax is 28% but I presumed Jubilee enjoyed certain allowances. According to WH Ireland's brokers note, taxes increased in the 2022 tax year and again in the 2023 tax year where tax is calculated at 21%.
What I think Ireland missed was the sharp increase in PGM and copper prices.
I concede that in my production calculations of PGM's increased in the second half of the year which is not the case that some believed. According to my calculations we had 6 months production in the second half year and only 2 and half months in the first half year from the newest Windsor plant. Also some think that our first Inyoni plant was impacted with the building of 2nd Inyoni plant but the 2nd plant was built in a different area so I am sure suffered no loss of production and there was actually increased production at Inyoni 1 with the increased treatment of chrome tailings.
I have also said that real growth of PGM's and Copper and Cobalt begins mainly in the 2022 tax year so I am not overly concerned with the the figures which most shareholders seem to be eagerly awaiting.
I am more concerned to prove WH Ireland went wrong somewhere. We have often seen shares falling for reasons of missing estimates so perhaps we could see the opposite if we beat estimates.
Perhaps WH Ireland have done shareholders a favour by estimating too low
I believe and hope so

Aucs My calculations are way higher than WH Ireland who calculated 1.9p.
I believe they will be closer to 3p.
I will be very disappointed if I am wrong but I am very sure WH Ireland have got it wrong

Shareholders in Jubilee often mention a take over of the company but nobody seems to worked out what price is should be acceptable to the shareholders
Mammon's post on mineralogy in which he refers to the difficulty of processing common forms of copper also got me thinking.
As a CA I was often called on to value a business which I did by adding goodwill, which I had calculated ,to net assets.
Applying the same principles to Jubilee ,I discovered it was not an easy calculation BUT I believe to a thinking shareholder what is easy is to calculate the net worth per share is far higher than it's present price.
Take Copper for instance if Mammon is correct and Jubilee has the ability to process all copper(which I don't doubt they can do) there is an enormous goodwill to be added as I am sure there will be many other deals starting with Cypress were the tech can be applied. Jubilee's reported 300 Million tonnes of copper tailings is equivalent to 30 year copper mine without the costs of establishing a mine. What is that worth?
The same principle applies to the Chrome and PGM tailings in South Africa, We have large mines without the cost of establishing the mines.
Jubilee does have capital costs in erecting the processing plants but they are insignificant as compared to establishing an actual mine.
That the process can be repeated world wide is an enormous GOODWILL.
Then Jubilee has Tjate which in any takeover must have some value.
What it all amounts to price wise is the million dollar question but it is what makes Jubilee such a worth while investment

From the announcement by Leon that he looked forward to sharing good news on copper with the shareholders,I have little doubt that the extraction of copper from tailings is moving forward at a fast pace.
Anyway an RNS will clarify the position very soon

Instant expert Where did you have to fish around to find another expert to be bearish on platinum. It is the first article I have seen that is bearish on the metal.
Every article and every CEO of a platinum company that I have read or heard are extremely bullish on all PGM'S including platinum so I will choose to be bullish.
By the way the last price I saw for platinum was $1085.61 so his expected range looks a trifle suspect.

KaiserB At last we have found common ground.
I agree fully on what you call the 10% shareholders but I will go further and say that a lot of the selling is being done by CFD shareholders hoping to make a quick buck from the RNS which was expected to arrive within days. When it not arrive they became forced and panic sellers when markets became bearish. In the long run it will turn out as a blessing for the share price and should not worry long term holders
As a long term holder I will look forward to the RNS when it comes, mainly for the information it will disclose,as to the intended way forward for both our copper(cobalt) and PGM's which in my opinion is the most exciting part of Jubilee's future.
Yes I am an optimistic shareholder and have calculated the Jubilee's earnings will comfortably beat the 1.9p put out by WH Ireland but it matters little, as compared to what we can expect in the future.
As you know I live in South Africa and I believe the riots which are far away from Jubilee's plants will have NO effect on Jubilee's profits. In fact in a strange way it is likely the riots will bring all of us who abhore corruption closer. The president in his talks has stated that fighting both corruption and racism is now an urgent priority.
I also believe most of the improved revenues,South Africa have enjoyed, has come from the mining industry(here I consider Jubilee as part of the mining industry) and are likely to be more friendly to the industry than they were in the past.
SO ALL GOOD

Gotreal
There is nothing you said that I disagree with. It is the reason I said in my post that a company should start paying dividends as soon as it can. At today's interest rates it might make sense to borrow.That from a conservative CA who hates borrowing

I see I have again been attacked for daring to suggest that the payment of a dividend would be good for the Jubilee image.
Is there no way I can filter messages from posters I do not wish to read ?
Back to the case for dividends
I have been an investor on the JSE for 65 years and as a CA have given my family,clients and friends my suggestions as to what would constitute a good investment on the stock exchange, and I am happy to say that I have been correct more often than not. You can obviously work out that I am no spring chicken, and among other interests have been in the mining game where as chairman of a public company with T McConnachie (ex CEO of Sylvania)as my CEO was successful in turning a mining company with a market cap of R1.28 Million into a company now worth billions of rand.
During my journey I have noted that many investors, irrespective of the company being a growth stock,will not invest in a company that is seen to be incapable of paying a dividend.Therein lies my belief that a company should pay a dividend as soon as it can.
I also believe that it is great to use profits made to finance further growth but that does not mean that dividends should be ignored. I have also heard Leon say on a number of occasions that our balance sheet is strong enough to borrow funds if necessary. At today's interest rates to do so makes great sense.
I dismiss the thought made by some shareholders who insinuate that the company will continue to raise funds via a share placing. Yet that is possible, BUT ONLY to finance MASSIVE GROWTH so that thought is the far from my mind.

Marshs that is good news so everyone looking for results before the 22nd should relax.
Shareholders should not build up their hopes, as I believe the results will not be as important to the Jubilee share price as many believe.
What is more important are the future prospects which in my opinion are too good to ignore.
That should be one of the reasons for an increase in the share price.
I hope the directors will also understand that the payment of dividends, however small, will put the company on a different footing and will also result in a re rate to the share price.
So sit tight until the 22nd or alternatively TOP UP.

Oddly enough the looting has a positive effect on PGM'S with some believing that the unrest will spill over to the mines. We can already note the big improvement in the platinum price.
For South African investors it also means larger profits, as the rand weakens, for the rand hedge shares.
This includes JBL(on JSE) so for us sitting in this country there is a silver lining.
For those of you invested in JLP (on LSE) I do not believe Jubilee will be effected in any bad way so I would avoid panic selling.
South Africa needs the profits coming from the mining companies which I believe,at the moment is a massive contributor to the finances of this country.
Even the ANC should be aware that they need to protect mining income,with the president coming from a mining background

Papaduke It is very simple.The share has risen from 1.25p and SO MANY are showing profits on their original purchases they are not even thinking of the future profits.It is human nature to sell at a profit.Most shareholders have not done any research but have bought on tips and articles written by others.
Those of us that have done our own research are holding on for dear life

really difficult as I have no idea of the impact of covid or the weather. However my guess is 2900 tonnes.
All we have to go on at this stage is an eventual 25000 tonnes pa target as announced by Leon.
What an amazing mouth watering prospect that is.

Gamblers5 you are right.Time will tell who is right.
However I do take exception to Kaiser insinuations that there is any problem when deals are done between two companies that have mutual directors .I have been there and there is nothing wrong and is a common happening when deals are announced.
Kaiser then uses Galileo Resources to justify his reason ignoring the close relationship between Jubilee and Galileo.
He then gives the reason why Jubilee would not process the Zinc. HELLO they had the first option.
I also take exception to his words, when he made the statement "So your assertion that a directors get preferential treatment in a deal".I NEVER made that assertion,those words are HIS ALONE. I did say t was a common happening as it is far easier to deal with persons you know(A fact of Life)

Kaiser
While I agree that you have every right to your opinion on a speculation you should be taking notice of all points leading to the speculation,such as the same director sitting on both boards,and I also want to draw your attention to the announcement made by Jubilee on the 3rd June 2021. I believe shareholders have every right to presume the obvious.