Member Info for dorfan01

Gotreal
I seem to recall that Leon said he had done a deal with Samancor that would allow for an increased profit if the price of chrome exceeded a certain figure.From my days at Merafe I know $260 per ton is a great price for chrome producers so if I am correct we can expect a greater contribution from chrome

Heroric
My feeling is that the warrants are not the real reason for the low share price. Warrant holders would hang onto the shares if they saw a bright future for the company. My opinion is that the share price is being influenced by uncertainty. We need to wait to see what has happened in the last six months and also what the future looks like.
We actually now need a RNS as to earnings in the first half of the 2023 year and what is expected in the second half of the year.It would also be nice to know what the new chairman has done to improve the prospects going forward.
Like everybody else that has seen the copper price reach $8800 and with the platinum price now close to $1100 and our cobalt story it is difficult to understand the present price.Hopefully all will be cleared up shortly.

SeisNav
I would think that Jubilee could install generators after all they started out as a company before tailings producing electricity. It would however increase the cost of production as the purchase of diesel will be required.In South Africa most manufacturers have generators not to affect production during load shedding.
Another challenge I believe they can surmount.

JLPP
I agree with your sentiments .While the basket price is very important, production is equally important. While I am sure Homey's figures are correct and it is a fact that the company is silent on production creates the problem.If we both agree that Homey's figures are correct the rate of the Rand to the Dollar at the 30th June 2021 was about 13.4 rand to the dollar. That shows there will be a massive currency profit in the months going forward.
That was the point I was trying to make.

HomeyClOWN you are certainly well named.
I did say I would never again address a message to you but I cannot help myself.
My original posts was addressed to those shareholders that complained about low PGM prices,so why should I refute you when you proved my point that PGM basket prices were never higher. Even excepting your figures the price of your basket at the end of December 2022 was $2379 which in rand terms would be R40942 with the rand at today's date of 17.21 to the dollar. Just by the way the platinum price is now above $1090 with palladium price over $1800 I suspect the basket price to be even higher than at the 31 st December.
I believe you are like Trump never wrong.
Next time read my post correctly.

For all the doomsayers and complainers about the basket prices of pgm's the following are the actual facts. Any unbiased investor should admit that all PGM producers have never had it so good taking into account the depreciation of currencies against the dollar. The Rand has been a HUGE beneficiary and the Pound, as well, but to a lesser extent.
Platinum 1 month +5.2% 6 months +23.5% 1 Year +9.7% 5 Years +9.2% 23 Years +140%
Palladium 1 month -4.3% 6 months -8.1% 1 Year -6.8% 5 Years +55.9% 23 Years +280%
Rhodium 1-2 months ago $11000 6 months ago $12600 1 Year ago $14200 5 years ago $9400 (average prices)
With currency depreciation the VERY BEST place to invest was in resources and company's earning dollars.
I look forward to the usual doomsayers refuting actual facts

bushy you have shown your true colors saying JLP is barely breaking even with prices at these levels (They are peak prices taking into account currency gains)with profits being spent on so called growth. Even though you know the growth is a reality your statement that JLP is barely breaking even is SO STUPID it is laughable.You DO NOT deduct the capital expenses of GROWTH from profits.

Happydays -You are correct and it is a factor that is contributing ,together with the warrants, to the LOW share price. Leon is a brilliant engineer but I am afraid is being misled by those in finance, as the company needs to inform shareholders at least every 3 months of production figures for the quarter, whether good or bad.
That was and remains my position,which was I believe appreciated by the shareholders of Merafe.

JLP Positive
Well said-exactly my sentiments. The SP in my opinion may remain weak for some time after the 19th January 2023 for the following reasons.
1 The warrant holders are by nature not in the share to become LTH but to make a quick buck, and will always be WEAK holders although some of the more astute will wait a bit longer to sell out
2 While the prices of PGM's ,Copper and Coballt exceed their peaks in Rands & Pounds the average investor does not take into account currency when looking at the prices of the metals.
3 The profits for the first half of 2023 tax year (July to December 2022) may not meet expectation due to the electricity problem in South Africa and the water problems in Zambia both of which have now been corrected, but may postpone the huge profits Jubilee expects to make.
PATIENCE IS THE NAME OF THE GAME

Hi Gotreal ,Edzi & Happydays
We are all on the same side so don't let the share price influence our thinking.
On reflex ion I believe the warrants issued so long ago is part and parcel of the reason for the slide .I will continue to look forward to good revenue figures when they are eventually announced

Exactly Happy Days you have hit the nail on its head.
When will the board realize that NO news equals BAD news

Edzi
I read your post and Mickie's reply.I believe your comments about Mickie's enthusiasm is a trifle unfair.If you listen to the Sunday Roast you can only have two thoughts.Either Jubilee is heavily oversold or the participants in the discussion are complete nincompoops. While I agree that we are in a bear market that is not the reason for poor performance of the share as MOST PGM and Copper shares are massively higher than they were a few months ago while Jubilee has dropped, so blaming a bear market is not the way to go.
In my opinion the Jubilee board is responsible for the poor performance of the share. The lack of 3 monthly updates, is a ridiculously poor decision in the wake of the growth of the company.Not keeping shareholder's informed has led to a distrust of the board by MANY shareholder's.What Progress being made ?What is the NEW chairman and NEW director actually doing? THAT IS THE PROBLEM !
IF they have been advised that not communicating with shareholders is the way to go, that is , in my opinion, particularly hard on PRIVATE SHAREHOLDERS as I have little doubt that the institutions ,as they should be ,are being kept informed as to the progress being made.After all Mr Slater has an obligation to keep his own shareholders informed.
I too,find it difficult to equate the share price with the potential profits in the coming years with seemingly everything being in favor of the company .I refer to currency and the rising prices of metals being produced.
Bear markets to the wise investor is a time for buying shares. I will continue to remain optimistic until actual profit figures disappoint for the wrong reasons.

Billyboy 2
I am aware there are head office costs and taxation costs so your point is valid. I am not an expert on taxation in Zambia but in South Africa taxation is reduced by allowances relating to the cost of building plant as well as upgrading the plant so I don't expect Jubilee to pay the South African company tax rate of 28% for some time. The president of Zambia has gone on record that he intends to build up the copper industry in Zambia so I hope that taxation will not feature to prominently as the company is building up it's infrastructure.
Load shedding in South Africa is particularly bad but I am more than sure that Jubilee has taken steps to create it's own electricity and hopefully the same could be said for Zambia.
Maybe I have been to optimistic ,only time will tell ,but like you I see a bright future,

Hi Billy2
Like Seis I calculate earnings in the 2023 year to be in the region of $100 million . The Jubilee share capital at the moment is 2 689 854 (say 2 billion 700 Million shares) with outstanding warrants and new options issued for purposes of my exercise I have assumed 2.8 billion shares (on the high side but I would rather be conservative) .The Rand is fluctuating between 17.3 to 17.1 the dollar so again to be conservative I use the lower figure of 17.1. In rand terms $100 million =1.7 billion rand. Dividing 1.7 billion rand by 2.8 billion shares gives a rand profit of 61.07 cents per share giving a 4 PE of 61.07 x 4=R2.44 which is higher than today's closing share price of R2.35 .
The only real unknown is will we reach a profit $100 million .With the figures we have which now includes chrome at a good price,PGM's (especially platinum doing well at over a $1000 and in my opinion likely to rise) copper at over $8400 and the extra income from cobalt $100 Million looks achievable .
With China looking to grow at over 5% I believe my faith in resources will be justified.

Hi Seis
Thanks for your input . Unless Jubilee suffers some disaster (of which I hasten to add is difficult to contemplate from announcements to date)my calculations are close to yours. Nobody seems to be taking into account the currency gains which will translate into more rands and pounds. In fact as I live in South Africa in rand terms I expect earnings in 2023 to exceed or at least be close to 60 cents (south african) which means we are trading on a PE of less than 4. If I am correct then I believe there is room for a 1p (english) dividend which will still leave plenty over for expansion.
My thoughts,based on experience, are the same as those shareholders who believe the payment of a dividend(however little)will improve the image of the company and lead to shareholder's trusting more and complaining less.

JLP Positive
Thank you for your post. I am also extremely bullish on commodities and have gone overweight on resources on portfolio's I control. I agree fully with your remarks and expect only a slow recovery in the share price.Of course better communication from the company would help as would quarterly reports but I am convinced that only good reported earnings at this stage will be the catalyst to an improved share price. The wrong policy of not keeping shareholders fully updated on production and sales figures has caused the average shareholder to distrust the obvious enthusiasm of LEON and that will only change when the increased (as I expect) profits are announced.
In the mean time I console myself that I am invested in a company earning dollars and the weakness of the pound and rand has made my investment even more profitable. I expect PGM,COPPER and COBALT prices to rise but the market has not yet awoken to what the currency weakness of the pound and rand has done to improve shareholder's returns.
YES I believe that Jubilee is now one of the most undervalued shares on both the LSE @ JSE exchanges.

gotreal
Instead of moaning they need to use the opportunity to BUY. Both the pound and rand are in the toilet and it is hard to see a better buy in both currencies. IT seems to be to good to be true when I calculate what dividends we will receive in the coming years

Charles my sentiments exactly but I am only 84

All of us including me who sent emails to the company asking for better communication of progress being made can now relax. With the new RNS about cobalt I believe we have arrested the drastic fall of the share price.Nice to know somebody is listening.

Hi Mickie
I have sent Leon a personal email .I will see if he replies