RE: IMF historic accuracy on UK GDP.31 Jan 2023 18:46
Guitarsolo
I lifted this from the IMF website, no mention of Brexit that I can see.
MR. GOURINCHAS: Yeah. So, UK economy actually so let me start with the good news. The UK economy’s actually done relatively well in last year. We have revised upwards economic growth in the UK to 4.1 percent. That’s a 0.5 percentage point revision. And it’s one of the highest growth rates in Europe in that region for that year.
It is true that we are expecting a fairly sharp slowdown in this year. We’re projecting a growth that is -0.6 percent for the year. And that’s a downward revision of 0.9 percentage point. And there are basically three things that are behind this downward revision, and especially the fact that the UK is expected to do somewhat worse than some other countries in the region.
First, there is the exposure to natural gas. And we’ve had a very sharp increase in natural gas prices, energy prices in the UK. And there is a larger share of energy that is coming from natural gas with a higher passthrough to final consumers. And so, that has affected -- there’s been a stronger cost of living crisis, if you want, in the UK.
The second is that the UK also its employment levels have not recovered to pre-pandemic levels. So, this is a situation where you have a very, very tight labor market but you have an economy that has not reabsorbed back into employment as many people as it had before. And of course that means there is less output, less production.
And the third is that there is a sharp monetary tightening because inflation has been very elevated. That’s a side effect of this high passthrough of energy prices. Inflation was 9.1 percent last year. And it’s expected to actually remain quite high in this coming year at 8.2 percent. The Bank of England has started tightening. The UK has a fairly high share of adjustable rate mortgages. So, when The Bank of England starts increasing rates, it feeds into the mortgage rates that mortgage holders are paying. And that is also weighing down on activity.
So, all these three factors together explain why we have a somewhat sharper adjustment in 2023, but on the back of a relatively stronger growth in 2022.