Member Info for Dorfan

EV owners have had it too good up to now. It is all about addressing fairness and income from the government to restore the gap it has lost. Why should EV owners pay nil road duty? In fact I think they should pay even more because they are a lot heavier and cause more road wear and potentially cause pot holes to us petrol owners.

For new EVs (registered on or after April 1, 2025)

First year: Owners will pay the lowest first-year rate of £10.

Second year onwards: The standard annual rate of £195 applies.

Expensive car supplement: If the EV had a list price of over £40,000, an additional supplement of £425 per year is added to the standard rate for years two through six. This brings the total annual tax for these years to £620.

For existing EVs

Registered between April 1, 2017, and March 31, 2025: Owners will pay the standard annual rate of £195.

Registered between March 1, 2001, and March 31, 2017: Owners will pay a reduced annual rate of £20.

Trouble

“ Most my posts are interested to test the water or get a reaction - your interest is commendable.

I did notice there was no reaction or recommendations to the one I posted about the hero re: train stabbings - bit strange !”

Your posts are mainly to bait people.

The reason people didn’t respond to the stabbing was it was off topic and we all knew where you wanted any discussion to go so that you could report to teacher and get them removed from the forum.

I suspect you have been busy this morning already telling teacher everyone is being nasty to you and to delete posts and remove them.

If the government were to introduce a charge of 3 pence per mile on all battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in the UK, it would generate an estimated £514.86 million in annual revenue, based on late 2025 figures.

This calculation is based on the following data:

Total number of BEVs: As of October 2025, there are approximately 1.71 million fully electric cars in the UK.

Average annual mileage for a BEV: The average electric car travels about 10,000 miles per year.

Proposed charge rate: 3 pence (£0.03) per mile.

Calculation

The total annual revenue is calculated as follows:

Total annual miles driven by all BEVs:

1.71 million cars * 10,000 miles/car = 17.1 billion miles (or 17,100,000,000 miles)

Total annual revenue at 3p per mile:

17.1 billion miles * £0.03/mile = £513 million (The more precise number from sources is derived from a slightly higher BEV count and mileage: ~£514.86 million)

This figure represents a small fraction of the estimated £35 billion annual revenue gap from fuel duty and road tax that the government needs to address as petrol and diesel cars are phased out.

It is worth noting that some reports suggest the government might consider higher charges, potentially ranging from 6p to 15p per mile, to adequately replace the lost revenue.

A more informed overview on rentals. I do wish some of you would actually DYOR and understand trends and analysis.

As of March 2025, the total number of private rented households in the UK is estimated to be around 5.57 million homes across the whole UK, with approximately 4.7 million households in England alone.

The number of rental properties has remained broadly stable in terms of overall stock compared to the previous two years, though market dynamics are changing.

Comparison Over Time

Time Period Number of Households in the Private Rented Sector (England) Number of Homes/Households (UK Estimate)

Year Ending March 2025 Approx. 4.7 million Approx. 5.57 million

Year Ending March 2024 Approx. 4.6 million Approx. 5.4 million

Year Ending March 2023 Approx. 4.6 million Approx. 5.4 million

2022 (General estimates) N/A Approx. 4.61 million

Note: UK-wide figures are often estimates derived from England data (which makes up the majority of the market) and may use slightly different methodologies or time periods, hence the range.

Key Trends as of March 2025

Stable Stock, Increased Availability: While the total stock is stable, reports from March 2025 indicate a 13% increase in homes available to rent compared to the previous year, suggesting an easing of the extreme supply shortage, though availability still lags pre-pandemic levels by about 18%.

Landlord Exodus: A significant number of smaller, "buy-to-let" landlords have been selling up due to higher mortgage rates and regulatory changes, with 15.6% of all new instructions in Q1 2025 having been previously rented homes.

Consolidation: The market is consolidating, with the share of homes owned by landlords with just one property halving since 2010, while larger, professional landlords and the "build-to-rent" sector (which grew 16% compared to Q1 2024) are increasing their share.

Slowing Rent Growth: The increased supply and moderating demand have led to a slowdown in annual rent inflation across the UK, which dropped to 7.7% in the 12 months to March 2025 from a high of 9.1% in March 2024.

Trouble - I see being called ‘contrarian’ an insult.

I am not in the minority, there are many others here that share the same views. I don’t deliberately go looking for negative views, I seek a balanced view and tell it as it is.

Apologies will be accepted but I am not holding out for one.

There is no hard evidence from current market analyses or forecasts to support the claim that UK banks will see annual earnings rise by about 11% from now until 2030. In fact, most projections indicate a more challenging and lower-growth environment, with some reports even forecasting a decline in profitability. An 11% annual increase would require a significant acceleration in growth beyond current expectations, which are dampened by several factors.

Key reasons why a consistent 11% earnings growth is unlikely:

Lower revenue growth: The overall retail banking market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.66% between 2025 and 2030.

Declining profitability: After a period of high profitability driven by increased interest rates, a profitability squeeze is anticipated. Some forecasts show a significant drop in the average return on equity by 2027, and KPMG highlighted that the "post-Covid profit boom is over".

Interest rate impact: The high net interest margins that bolstered profitability are expected to fall as the Bank of England cuts interest rates. Forecasts predict the Bank Rate will continue to ease toward 2-3% by 2030, a significant headwind to earnings.

Increased competition: Intense competition for deposits and customer relationships from neobanks and other financial providers is putting pressure on margins. Neobanks are projected to have a significantly higher annual growth rate than traditional banks between 2025 and 2030.

Higher costs: Rising operating costs from technology, staffing, and compliance are increasing banks' cost-to-income ratios. The need for ongoing digital transformation and competition for tech talent will likely keep costs elevated.

Slower economic growth: Subdued economic growth, lower investment, and higher unemployment in the UK are likely to temper demand for lending.

Regulatory pressure: Continued focus from the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) on areas like consumer duty and the implementation of Basel 3.1 rules by 2030 will add to compliance costs.

Geopolitical uncertainty: Elevated geopolitical tensions and market volatility also pose risks to the sector's financial stability and could tighten credit conditions.

STP - if the negatives are factual then why should we bury them and not call them out for what they are?

STP

Unlike others here who only want to project a positive outlook and slam others like me for having a different view on things, I will look at all sides, the good, the bad and the ugly.

The overview I posted had all of that. You, like others continually only want to see positive news and interestingly you never mentioned any of the other comments in that overview that looked at the flip side.

In an earlier post of mine which was another overview, it showed there could be a downside of the SP to 70-75P. My position with my share holding volume is, I feel significant along with ‘management’s of equal size. If the share price goes up I am in for greater profit and as long as the dividends increase by 12-15% for the next year or two then we are happy with that progression.

Equally we would also be happy if the share price dropped, as it could do, as I will consider topping up again with the view at some point the sp will continue upwards again and further increase my profits and at the same time have a volume increase in dividends, which I have openly said in the past is the holiday fund for ‘management’.

A recent overview on Lloyds position potentially in a few weeks time and how it appeared early today

Chancellor Rachel Reeves' speech on November 4, 2025, indicated potential tax rises in the upcoming budget, which led to a negative reaction in the UK stock market and could negatively impact Lloyds Bank. The prospect of increased taxes on consumers could reduce disposable income, potentially leading to lower demand for financial products and services, including mortgages and loans, which are key for Lloyds. Concerns were also raised by a trade union boss about the need for banks to "pay a little bit more" in taxes, suggesting potential pressure on the banking sector.

Potential impacts on Lloyds Bank:

Reduced consumer spending and credit demand: Reeves' speech, framing the upcoming budget as one of "hard choices" and signaling that "we will all have to contribute," points toward potential tax increases for consumers. Higher taxes could reduce disposable income, impacting consumer demand for mortgages and loans, which are vital for Lloyds' profitability.

Pressure for increased banking taxes: The Trades Union Congress (TUC) General Secretary suggested that Reeves should look at increasing taxes on banks, arguing they should "pay a little bit more after they cashed in on eye-watering profits". While not official policy, this sentiment could translate into potential tax hikes for the banking sector in the November 26 budget.

Mixed market reactions: Following Reeves' speech, UK equities were in negative territory, suggesting a lack of confidence in the economy's prospects. However, UK government bond yields fell as she reiterated her commitment to fiscal rules, potentially lowering the government's borrowing costs. Lloyds Bank's stock price, LLOY, was down slightly on the day, but overall banking sector sentiment is a factor to watch.

Welfare and spending priorities: Reeves indicated a commitment to public spending, welfare reform, and NHS protection, which may be funded through tax rises. A Labour MP's call for broader tax reforms beyond piecemeal increases, though not official policy, reflects the internal debate on how to fund these priorities. For Lloyds, a focus on public services could divert economic resources away from the private sector.

Uncertainty ahead of the budget: The ultimate impact will depend on the specifics of the budget on November 26. Reeves refused to rule out specific tax hikes, creating uncertainty for the markets and businesses like Lloyds.

The Lloyds Banking Group plc share price as of November 4, 2025:

Closing price: 88.02p (bid)

Change: -1.34p (-1.50%)

Previous close: 89.40p

Market capitalization: £51.97 bn

ASI - I thought you had me green lined, something happen to change that?

ASI

“ Yeah, my missus is in the same situation. She's a highly specialised CAD designer in the telecommunications industry, but she's stuck on minimum wage because this year the NMW rose faster and higher than her already low professional salary.”

So wealth distribution by this Government is working then. Why should a specialised CAD designer earn anymore than the cleaner in her office?

Business confidence in the South West UK is currently low, making it the least confident region in the UK in Q3 2025.

According to the ICAEW Business Confidence Monitor (BCM) for Q3 2025 (covering July to September), the South West's confidence score dropped to -21.3, a deep negative territory and its lowest level since Q3 2020. This is significantly below the UK average of -7.3.

Key Factors and Indicators:

Main Challenges: The most significant growing challenges cited by businesses in the region are the tax burden (highest proportion reported in the survey at 62%) and regulatory requirements (51% of businesses).

Sales Growth: Domestic sales growth (3.2%) was broadly consistent with the regional and national norms, with further uplift anticipated. However, exports growth slowed to its lowest rate since Q4 2024, likely due to the region's exposure to the US market amid global uncertainty.

Inflation and Profits: Input price inflation remains "very sticky" in the region (4.2%), one of the highest rates in the UK. This has kept selling prices high and annual profits growth slightly below the regional historical average.

Labour Market: Employment growth slowed sharply to 0.4%, one of the weakest rates across UK regions. Businesses expect a return to the historical average next year, but wage pressures are expected to remain high.

Investment: The outlook for capital investment is weak, with reported growth of 0.8%, less than half the national average. The picture for R&D budgets is more positive.

Market / valuation impact for Lloyds in Budget

Share price reaction:

Markets typically price Lloyds at ~8–9× forward earnings.

If EPS drops 10–13%, with modest multiple compression (to ~8×), fair value could fall from roughly 85–90 p → 70–75 p, a 15–20% downside risk versus pre-Budget levels.

Investor sentiment:

UK bank shares including Lloyds could underperform EU peers (Santander, ING) as the UK becomes a higher-tax banking jurisdiction.

International investors may demand higher returns (risk premium) to hold UK-only lenders like Lloyds.

Credit outlook:

Fitch/Moody’s likely neutral; short-term profitability hit doesn’t threaten solvency,

Troajan

Interesting how it focused on the following banks, Its preferred picks remain Barclays PLC (LSE:BARC), NatWest Group PLC (LSE:NWG) and Paragon Banking Group PLC (LSE:PAG)

Trouble

As I said, it reads as an observation not a critique.

Perhaps it may be best that everyone on this board don’t engage with you as it seems we live in fear of being accused of being critical towards you and being told by you that you will report us and get us banned, which is well documented.

Trouble

That wasn’t a criticism, it was an observation.

Trouble

“Analyse all you want, critical thinking is essential but being critical of me personally will not achieve anything.

That's one sure way of losing any argument !

I much prefer discussion.”

And where have I been critical of you in my last post?

Trouble

I always find amusing articles like this, seen and read many of them. When you look at the words they use then you know that you can’t rely on it, like the ones below.

Expects, thinks, expectations

You seem to want to take only potential good news only to win an argument and not analyse what is actually being quoted or anything you regard as being negative. It makes me think is this sort of investing right for you?

Trouble

“ I'm more interested in todays news”

That’s your choice then on assessing how you invest.

Then please don’t be critical on how other people look at the future and how it may have an influence on the sp and the wellbeing of LBG. If you see it as negative news which seems to upset you, then just don’t respond back, it’s as easy as that.

Trouble

“ Not exactly todays news about an event in the future.”

The wise investor looks at the past, present and future news/data to make an informative decision on what to do.

So what information do you look at to make a decision on investing then, particularly Lloyds shares? Just looking at the share price increasing is not enough to look at the feel good factor. What goes up can also go down.

Lloyds shares can’t keep going up for no reason. At some point it will plateau and stay that way until a step change of events occur and it either continues up or goes down.