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All this feigned enthusiasm is a sign that licensing went wrong in the summer and now we have to get funding from investors. Big pharmaceutical companies are not convinced of the existing data and that is why Markku is trying to convince small investors by talking up the share price. In that way try keep the damage so small as possible. Yesterday’s speeches are by no means in line with today’s news. More and more reminiscent of vap-licensing that became a full flop.
Yesterday Markku was really full of enthusiasm. Today then a statement which principle repeats the former data. All this confirms what I wrote earlier. There is a reason why Markku glows things more than what would be necessary.
I would expect it to cause more concern than doubt about my sales. But let me guess: no worries, probably a good sign for this too?!
https://www.faron.com/investors/aim-rule-26
I have invested in Faron for the same reason that I have invested in all other drug development and medical device companies; high risk gives high reward expectations. 11 days ago, Markku had never stated publicly that at the moment we are not getting a good enough deal. In the spring, he said negotiations are taking place all the time. Everyone has the freedom to judge the significance of this, I have done it through my own experience and found that it means an increase in risk. If you or someone else sees it differently then you have all the freedom to do so. But I don’t understand why you’re interested in me, the topic of this chat is Faron.
Dracula, this chat is not my whole life, so be patient. This deal with US Department of Defense is otherwise interesting! Traumakin is actually the second deal with small company from Turku - the first one was with BioTie (who developed this Markkus VAP molecule). BioTie made 2012 a deal with DOD wich I think was exactly same size (6 miljon USD) to test traumatic stress treatment with a drug named Nepakastat. Here the news:
https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-5052788
and here is how it end:
https://www.globenewswire.com/en/news-release/2012/12/27/513571/0/fi/Biotie-raportoi-p%C3%A4%C3%A4tuloksia-nepikastaatilla-SYN117-tehdyst%C3%A4-tutkimuksesta-traumaper%C3%A4isess%C3%A4-stressih%C3%A4iri%C3%B6ss%C3%A4.html
This cannot be a coincidence, it must have something in common. I don’t remember all the details, its almost 10 years ago, but I would say that even then there was needs for “data Mining” - it was thought that development of Nepakastat was over. But it came to life once moor, albeit with a poor result as i linked. With this experience, I would say that DOD does not acquire the most promising areas for development. But affordable yes. And twice from Turku:)
dan1nat1, I made my first investments in Faron 3 years ago. I ended up in this chat much later, coincidences because Faron is being discussed here. Exactly 28 years ago, I bought the first shares of a pharmaceutical company in Orion. I suspect there is a chat about Orion here. Or other shares I own. Admittedly, I have one good seed investment that could possibly be listed next fall. I can tell you more if that is confirmed. And if you behave properly :) When I talked about the delay I meant them on a general level. A lot of delays tend to raise the odds that the outcome is negative. But yes, Traumakine is a good example. I must say Traumakine came alive as the Fenix-bird, and I'm happy for that. But odds are really not good.
SwedBank from Sweden are analyzing Faron. Here is their news that confirms that there has been a change in strategy: https://twitter.com/Aktiellt/status/1431233684640878596
dan1nat1 Thanks for worrying about my risk tolerance ability. I have invested in drug development for about 30 years and have seen many ups and downs over the years. I have sometimes lost money. But also got a taste of the big fish.
I believe I have also learned something. One thing is how important it is to distinguish bad messages from all that positive communication companies give. Delay is something that does not usually mean good. Of course, a bigger deal is better than a smaller one. But smaller is always better than no deal at all. A company that doesn’t get a contract has no choice but to give the picture that right now isn’t a good time to do it.
There are about 2,000 small drug development companies in the world, depending on various sources. So the options is almost endless for big companies. Can anyone give an example of a company that has entered into an agreement too early and the shareholder would have suffered? But it’s easy to list those who fail because they don’t get a deal.
100k can be an OK deal in preclinical if it includes options for different progression stages e.g. 1 million when phase 1 Ok 10 million when phase 2 Ok and 100 million when phase 3 Ok + market access money on top of double-digit royalties based on sales. Would you sign?
As I wrote a 5 million USD exclusivity agreement with Roche was made for Marku’s VAP molecule BEFORE Phase 1 even began, i.e., in the preclinical phase. The contract was then rubbed for a long time and phase 1 began. But as I told you the giga size contract was never signed. So then we were in discussions with the big ones much earlier than now. Now it seems that the contract situation is at the very beginning.
So from my experience I know that we are now worryingly advanced without an agreement. And strategy changes to licensing at this point is NOT a positive thing.
Sax in general I mostly agree with you in our posts but we see these risks in very different ways.
Of course share price can drop even if we have a licensing deal in the pocket but if the deal is giga size, as it should and can be in this case, contract fee (sign fee) is enough to pay shareholder dividend wich is more than no one ever paid for the share before the deal. And after that, even if share price goes to the sea bottom we don't loos everything.
Its right that we have many different cohorts. Copy from your post: "Bex has 9 cohorts that have shown positive data , with 4 that would already qualify for P3 study" . This is right but we have only one Bex and as we all now One bad news and it can be end of the game. Drug development work always goes on so that only those very potential ones move forward. And yet only 59% succeed in Phase III. And from that 59% we have 12% do not make it all the way to the market. "The observed success rates of academic drug discovery and development were 75% at phase I, 50% at phase II, 59% at phase III, and 88% at the new drug application/biologics license application (NDA/BLA)" phase.
I’m pretty sure all small development companies will try to make a deal as soon as a cashy one is available. In terms of risk, nothing else makes sense. And that is something Faron also have tried. But now it looks that we have not succeed. Markkus comments are so different now. If you look at the headline from SwedBank it also supports this theory: https://twitter.com/Aktiellt/status/1431233684640878596 And that's nothing to be happy about because it tells that when big pharma has analyzed the data they have had they are not convinced. And that's bad news!
If we look at the history (trac record) of Markku and team Jalkanen (sorry if I repeat things you've gone through here many times) expectations have also been high for their molecules finding in the past. For 20 years ago VAP-antibody was a really hot topic i Turku and Finland. VAP ended up in a Finnish company called BioTie and at some point Markku started new projects in Faron. I believe Bex is a byproduct of these VAP studies. BioTie made a 5 million USD deal with Rouche only for the exclusive right to negotiate a deal. After BioTies CEO told that the giga size deal was ready but when it was time to sign the other part was not confident enough. And Biotie was forced to go on alone and the rest is history...
So last weeks news was not a good for Faron. It mean that risk is higher than ever - we are forced to move forward alone. My expectations of success was were very high in the past - that expectation would have been supported by the agreement with BP. Now the lack of an agreement must be seen as lack of trust in other companies(BP) towards Bex and/or Faron.
Ginhall and Santhi123: I don’t understand that if you criticize it’s time to move on. And it’s also not about being patient or not. If you can’t stand a critical conversation, just skip those posts. I doubt you will get a more accurate picture of the situation by reading only positive writings, but everyone has the freedom to choose. Please, use that freedom!
Then to the actual topic. Drug development is a job where the probability of success is very poor. Most fail. Over the years large sums have been invested in various drug development start-up companies, also in Finland. How many of them have been successful? The answer is ZERO. Licensing a product means that you take in other party to share the risk. Of course, then there is also the other party sharing the potential income. But when we talk about the income - keep in mind that most will fail. Faron is no exception. Drugs are not taken into phase III if failures are known in advance.
I’m pretty sure all startup drug development companies will seek and include a "risk divider" as soon as one gets involved on satisfactory terms. No one want to take this kind of risk alone (at this point Farons shareholders have 100% of the risk) if you have an option. But as Markku said yesterday, it does not make sense to make an agreement now. That means there isn’t a good enough deal on offer. Otherwise, we would make a deal! So now we are forced to bear the risk alone.
This post does not mean that I not longer trust in Faron. But I am disappointed that we do not get a risk-taker involved. This indicates less confidence to Bex than would be the optimal situation. I would like to hear thoughts about this! (I'm not interested in posts that I need to move forward in my life - that's something I able to decide myself)
For me this is disappointing. This means reading between the lines that we have nothing at the moment regarding licensing. There has been a lot of speculation (also at This forum) that we have at least a well-prepared contract that will be signed when a certain goal is achieved.
There has been a change in Markkus message regarding licensing (take a look at the old videos). Back in last winter he made it clear that we are close. Now he talks about how valuable it is to meet And introduce yourself to companies in the upcoming conference!! So that means that we are far away now. And it also means that there is not enough believed in Bex at the moment - if there were we would received an offer that would make sense to sign now. Bex is already so far in the pipeline that a lot of big deals are being made at This same stage.
Here is the question from Sax post Inderes TV regarding licensing:
06:25 How does he see the Bexmarilimab licensing situation, how far it is worth going alone and at what point would the inclusion of a deep pocket partner speed up market entry?
Markku: ”We are in a critical value growing period right now. Matins-trial is producing lots of critical data at the moment And that's why its not wise to do a licensing deal at the moment. We must wait a while. As we informed we will speak at the ESMO conferences next month. There will every big drug companies participate And we have a great opportunity to present our product. So now we will go on With our work, there will perhaps be more knockings on our door, but I will not speculate when ”it” happened but when we strongly believe in our product we should not hurry.”
I wonder what is this all about?!
https://twitter.com/maijahollmen/status/1428375119190282240?s=21
Not bad: https://twitter.com/petrihollmen/status/1428257949168848901?s=21
Top licensing deals 2020.
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/special-report/top-15-biopharma-licensing-deals-2020
We have New Project Maneger in Faron. Elisa tells that she is ”so excited after my first week”. In the last message from Maija she hope that they can ”bring New exciting data in the near future”. So EXCITING seems to be the Word at the monent from people clous to Faron. And thats very OK??
https://twitter.com/elisa_vuorinen/status/1424260092090781696?s=21
Interferon beta-1a
Interferon ß-1a will be administered intravenously at the dose of 10 µg once daily for 6 days if oxygen dependent or subcutaneously at 44 ug Day 1, Day 3, and Day 6