Member Info for Discodave4561

Thanks Hottentot much clearer. Think this may, as its AHT and defies the norm, ignore support and fill the gap at 1125.......who knows, not me!. Dubious - Oh, US rates!, my mistake. Thought their debt/RCF was fixed for six years?. DD

ps falling sterling will increase their reported debt but I assume this is more than made up for by their proportionally greater US $ revenue in terms of comparative exchange rates. DD

dubious, Haven't seen the article, but it's a plant hire Company!, thats the normal model for such Company's - high'ish debt/leverage. Ashtead are well within their targeted leverage of 1.5x to 2x EBITDA (April 2016 it was 1.7x). So I assume if interest rates are cut (this Thursday potentially by 0.25%), then their profit will increase £2.5m!. TBH with profit before tax of about £620m, even a full 1% increase in interest rates (which isn't likely for a long long time) it would only reduce their profit by about 1.5%, so no big deal anyway IMV given that growth here is forecast to increase by at least 11%. DD

Hottentot, Sorry "matey" you've completely lost me now:- 1) when did it 1216.5?, today?, I can only see an intraday high today of 1201. 2) the brokers today have merely reiterated their recommendations, which they have had for some time, is that why your saying the price fell today? Thanks DD

Dubious, Think MTB was only joking as I believe you were too, nice that people are arguing over high prices as we're touching highs now rather than lows!. For the record, not wishing to fuel anymore misinterpreted light hearted postings, the all time intraday high is 1231 (28/5/15), the all time closing high is 1217 (27/5/15). See link below: https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=AHT.L&a=6&b=1&c=1988&d=6&e=31&f=2016&g=d&z=66&y=264 DD

They are to be held in treasury - "The shares purchased by the Company will be held in treasury pending cancellation or re-issue." Guess they do intend to cancel at some point!. See that Findel have declined to have MA as Chairman. GL DD

Likewise, didn't call that one right.......oh well, always admit when I'm wrong and learn from it. Based on an average share price of 270 the buyback will enhance eps by about 7% and has an equivalent rate of return of about 16%, so well worth it. DD

Not analysing your posts, unfiltered by accident (won't happen again!). My apologies if read it wrong but you do seem to have major issues with what people's positions are and constantly have sly digs at non investors views (myself included), yet your position here wasn't too clear, hence my posts, but once again I apologise for my posts - it was childish. DD

Saturday (missed this peach) - "I'm down a couple of per cent on my last buy at the moment but not enough to start panicking or thinking that I will not get a turn on that tranche like all the others before. After I sold tesco with a tiny profit, I continued posting on the bb and came to the conclusion that it was a waste of time and energy posting on a bb where I had no holiding" Classic Where's that fing f button, mebbes it's a wee bit faulty, letter to LSE.

Today - "I can only thank the Lord I didn't buy back in here when some others were buying" Saturday - "I have a small long position here would you mind just for transparency sake declaring what your obvious interest is in spd?" pmsl.....say no more!

According to the Rule 9 of the Takeover Code any shareholding that goes above 30% as a result of a share buyback programme is automatically obliged to make a general offer for the remainder of the entire issued share capital of the Company. This can be avoided by seeking a resolution for shareholders to approve a waiver for this obligation. In the case of SPD there is no single organisation/shareholder that holds anywhere near 30% (after MA the highest is about 7%). Assume the 30% rule does not apply to MA as the controlling/majority shareholder pre any buyback. As you say though a buyback would increase his percentage holding but the value of the remaining shares would increase proportionally so it would not result (I think!) in him being able to acquire the 49% any cheaper. In fact if the buyback is optimised in terms of maximising its equivalent rate of return then it should result in a rerating (increased eps) and increased market capitalisation. As the majority and controlling shareholder if MA wants to take it private then he could via a leveraged buyout. The norm is to put in an offer to buy the remaining shares at 35%-40% above the current share price and see what the shareholder approval level is and take it from there. DD

Onwards and upwards. 52 week (and all time?) high by the looks of it. DD

Beetham- Nope don't think so (if I'm reading the holdings RNS correctly). They have only reduced their total holding by 0.43% (refer to RNS 7th June), they have increased their CFD which now represents their total holding of 3.51%. DD

IMO don't think they will do a share buyback, how will they fund it?, unless I'm mistaken they have increased debt levels by quite a bit and have no net cash on the books. If they increase debt to fund it then that's not the way to go IMV and breaks one of the cardinal rules of share buy backs (as per Wolfson on Next's buyback strategy who have to be considered as the masters of optimising the equivalent rate/s of return from their buyback programme). Also think at some point, despite MA stating that he "currently" has no intention of taking it private, that he will take it private when the opportunity is right for him - say �3 (or less the way it's falling) per share for the remaining 49%, �400m from his fat piggy bank and �400m by increasing leverage (still would be low against EBITDA), then he can tell the clueless MP's to go do one and stick two fingers up to the city. tidd83 - thanks also for the chart, do think there's a place for TA (self fulfilling prophecies!). DD

Thanks JPT. Initially I had about �200m hit, which may have been on the high side!. EPS who knows but have curca 25p in my mind. Whilst in the last recession/crisis SPD prospered, things are so much different now and have doubts they will ride the storm as well as previously. Wouldn't have said that the economy has been buoyant the past few years yet SPD's revenue growth LFL has fallen off a cliff which goes against 2008+, yet JD's tells the opposite story (which is baffling me a bit): SPD Rev +2.5% this year, +4.7% 2015, +23.8% 2014, +21% 2013. JD Rev +20% this year, +25% 2015, +6% 2014, +18% 2013. Is the decline in SPD's revenue growth due to all the bad PR/governance issues (IMV not much), or additional cheaper competition (Amazon, Decathlon, Zalanda.co, etc, etc.) combined with people seeking higher quality value sporting fashion like JD's offering (SPD's Premium Lifestyle has LFL double digit revenue decline), tend to think it's a combination of the latter two points. Still think SPD is a quality business that just needs to sort all the PR/governance/staffing issues out, the BoD needs a shakeup and perhaps their "stack em high sell em cheap" needs a revisit/tweak. WTFDIK. GL DD

How much will the lack of �/$ cost SPD? - Their last two year hedge was at �1.70, so going forwards without any hedge in place (assuming the idiots can't now hedge at anything like previously) then at least half their purchasing costs will increase by at least 30% - not to mention the euro hedge which would at today's rates give a fair value hit of about �70m!. Their underlying profit after tax (the actual bottom line) was only �210m, the cost of fx rates combined with additional costs (capex and opex), reducing LFL revenue growth, etc., I wonder what FY17 bottom line will be?, perhaps an eps of 25p?.........that's the million dollar question I suppose. tidd83 - Agree with your comments. Anybody can post their views irrespective of their position, it's a free BB not just confined to those who are long, any view is welcomed in my book so long as it's not blatant ramping/deramping. JPT - Same as yourself, don't think this will go below 200. Will keep watching and waiting (again). DD

It was marked up 47p at open, so a fairly big gap, no expert so who knows if it will be filled at some point in the future. Guess tomorrow could depend on URI close (was up 14% earlier, but fallen back to +10% when just looked). DD

No way is this overbought, on what basis are you making that assumption, RSI is not overbought, PE is 8.....it says the opposite to me, this was/is oversold. DD

AHT marked up this morning on the back of United Rentals Q2 results last evening - beat earnings forecasts by about +13% ($2.06 eps against forecast of $1.82). Wonder if this will hold?, it's a nasty gap this morning though that may need filling!. DD

Sorry JPT meant weaker £ All the best. This is cheap on all current metrics, the trouble is trying to forecast future earnings (it might not look as cheap then!). DD