Member Info for Discodave4561

Nige_W Berkeley may well get booted out of the FTSE100 this week, however, its already priced in and can't see it impacting too much on all the other builders. Good luck. DD

Despite the good news on the 24th, pbt around £2m, the sp still hasn't recovered back to pre the RR bad news. The bad debt (£628k) is priced in IMV but the true cost (reduced capex, etc.) is unknown and perhaps until they provide this detail in the finals next month then this will carry on going sideways? - unless some other news, good or bad, is released before then. Who knows, still feel the recent trading update was purely a PR tactic which with GDP makes me think the worse. DD

Nige_W Sounds like you have a plan and wish you all the best with it. Wouldn't personally feel comfortable with so much (67%) invested in builders but that said they have some catching up to do to get to where they should be. DD

Hello dubious. Given that United Rentals beat forecasts by about 15% for their Q2 results (21st July), then hopefully Sunbelt has also had a stonking quarter. Can't remember though if the URI beat was mainly down to an upturn in their Canada operations and improvements in the Oil and Gas sector- where AHT isn't operating. Have held this for over four years and although the sp has had its ups and downs, particularly more recently, it's never disappointed on results. DD

Thanks Nige_W, No offence but don't understand your "program", wouldn't just a note in your diary or email alerts do the same thing?. Any reason you didn't buy any builders when they all dipped due to Brexit? Thanks DD

Thanks Nige_W, Didn't really need to see what your investment plans are though, but hey. Only one question, why didn't you pile in much earlier? DD

At year end (Dec 2015) they had spent about £1.71m (~89% of the earn-in), leaving about £210k to be invested in Mutsk before the August deadline. Given the last minute decision to recommence drilling in July, I assume the £210k spend will be met?. DD

Nige_W Like everything its about supply and demand, house builders aren't stupid, to keep prices inflated / increasing means under supplying, but it's always a very fine balance. Will be interesting to have your feedback on the findings from your spreadsheet. GL DD

You were spot on. Agree, the kick up was due mainly to no cut in the divi as was expected. Everything else was as expected. Based on top end of their forecast for year end (£80m pbt) this seems fully priced now IMV on a PE of about 14. GL DD

Fair point......however, they could have issued some news about the Anumso LOI but they havnt yet (keeping that up their sleeve) and they have never been that concerned in the past about trying to "support the SP" by timing their news releases.......perhaps my glass will always be half empty based on past records here!. GL DD

Nige_W Think you have misinterpreted my points about value trap.........because your measuring house builders value based on metrics that don't give a true measure of their value when compared to other sectors, that was my point really. Not saying there is not a profit to be made though. Also agree that the Government are likely to introduce stimuli for the industry which will help margins.........but isn't that what they have been doing yet they are still not meeting targets, despite low interest rates earnings have not kept pace with house prices. Where would the growth be if there was no assistance from Government policy?. Chasing news and divis from other builders, don't really understand your strategy tbh, as has been demonstrated with PSN interims, all builders are influenced by each other's results/divis (except there will be slight differences due to demographics and market), so pick one or two and away you go. GL DD

Good evening, You might find this bit of TA interesting - "Near term movement to an initial 1328" http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/columns/trendstargets/25793/ashtead-group-plc-renting-new-highs-25793.html DD

Was hoping you might crunch the NAV numbers on your spreadsheet! Lol. Sorry didn't mean to sound patronising in anyway.....just wanted to demonstrate that it's easy to get caught in a value trap with house builders, particularly with the perceived low PER's and high dividends (which are never guaranteed). Good luck. DD

Thanks Nige_w, useful data. Not an expert but measuring cyclicals, particularly house builders, using normal metrics like PER will not give the true picture of "value". Many builders have massive land banks that were purchased during the slump in 2008/09 and the best measure when comparing builders is price to book or price to net asset value or price to net tangible asset value. If using PER it's also best if you want to avoid value traps to use cyclically adjusted earnings in order to smooth out the peaks and troughs of a full housing cycle. For instance the average eps for PSN over the last ten years is about 65p, at today's price that's a PER of 29, for the last 5 years their average eps has been 95p that's a current PER of 20. Some would argue that the builders are reaching the top of the cycle, I disagree and see a few more years yet. It's Government intervention that will determine when the peak of the cycle is. DD

Closing at an all time high.......yet again. Let's see what Aunty Janet does tomorrow. GL DD

Thanks, good luck to yourself too. Was going to keep just my profits in here but - if in doubt get out - so I sold up later today. This was never a long termer for me, just a post Brexit play. Will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow though. DD

What was the purpose of yesterday's update?, they knew early July that they were going to easily beat market expectations as the forecast (VSA) was so low £560k and they had a very good June. So with the prelims on the 26th of next month, pbt virtually confirmed yesterday, so excluding the RR issue (which again is known and could be c £628k write off - or worse) what other news is imminent?, the cynic in me is getting the feeling the market will be drip fed with good news (Anumso, TSF, South America) from now until the prelims - then the bad news?, hope I'm wrong. DD

Yep, did read the Tempus article. Have come around to your way of thinking tbh and considering reducing today. Made a decent profit here (for a change!) so will bank some. Don't think there will be any surprises tomorrow but it's all priced in and with the Yankee doodles pontificating who knows which way the market in general will go tomorrow. DD

JPTRADER Agree, housebuilders oversold due to Brexit. Work full time so don't trade just buy and hold generally, previously held BWY and BVS but my timing was off and sold at BE and a small loss respectively - third time lucky!. Hoping for a bit of a pullback here so can top up but after today's (OK yesterday's!) results I doubt it will happen for a while. Then the Autumn statement will be fast approaching with potential (likely IMV) stimuli for the sector, possibly this Property Fund that's been in the press recently, or changing the threshold for help-to-buy, or whatever as Mrs May will want to show that she can deliver on her previously stated desire to support the sector in order to hit their housing targets. Good luck here and elsewhere. DD

Thanks JPTRADER, nice to see you here. Bought PSN early July at 1545, thanks to Brexit!. No TA but next resistance could be 200SMA at 1901, still a massive gap to fill at 2068 as well but tbh £20 may well be enough for me (will see). Not holding SPD (sorry for off topic!), thought eps 40p achievable on past records but less at least 20% for their cock ups, so agree with you, 30p...fully priced at the moment IMV. Still watching it though. Good luck if your in here. DD