Member Info for Discodave4561

davidpqz Would you mind expanding on your detailed analysis please. By �blue sky� do you mean that they are in the business of developing, or pursuing, something that will be of significant value to others?, or do you mean in the context of their value of goodwill on the balance sheet?. What do you mean by crap?. Thanks DD

Possibly the Daniell�s trimming their stake?, from the Jan 17 RNS: �The vendor is restricted from dealing in their entire holding including the New Ordinary Shares until around 13 January 2018 (being twelve months after the date the deferred consideration shares are issued for the year ended 31 August 2016).� DD

Hi MatthewC, Just looking at these so not holding yet but like the business model. Would normally agree about the valuation but if these grow at the forecast rates then an eps of 1.95p for 2019 (16 months to their FY end) puts this on a forward PE of only 19, but they appear to have improving margins and exceed forecasts so 2.5p eps (only quick calls) could be possible, that’s a very low rating of 15 for such growth, the PEG would be phenomenally low (below 0.1) and personally would completely ignore the PE rating given the exceptional earnings growth potential. This would be a punt for me if I dipped my toe but the potential is there and the current rating will be just a distant memory.........that actually reflected diddly squat, go for PEG. Will keep watching and waiting for a bit of a dip (no offence holders). Good luck DD

Hi Matt Was very tempted to buy back in today, think it’s the usual over reaction but given the uncertainty I will put it back on my watch list. Good luck DD Ps Still regret selling too early!

My only concern is that the last buyback they stated “up to £200m in 2016/17” (they only bought c £48m), this time it’s “at least £500m.....”. My guess is though that it will be just £500m which spread over 18 months is the equivalent of £333m pa, doesn’t sound as bad! (gulp). They will not get anywhere near a billion, that’s just PR IMO to keep the US investors/market happy. They would have to increase net debt to fund £1bn and no way is a buyback going to be funded by debt, that would be madness IMO, thus the billion is smoke and mirrors.......they only bought back 25% of the last buyback programme so even the £500m may not come to fruition, no doubt in time they will announce a significant acquisition and then “the previously announced buyback programme has now been reduced accordingly”. As for the director sells, well why not, how many on this board either put a short on or sold around results? (I did neither by the way except had a cheeky top up this morning). Also, think the three that sold tend to always sell on the same day (they did in June as well) so although timing not great for pi’s they do seem to try and manage a single hit to the sp. There was also a broker downgrade yesterday (Citi) from Buy to neutral which didn’t help. DD

Oops forgot the link! http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/468043/records-and-upgrades-follow-ashteads-results DD

Hi Matt, Excellent results........only down side is the buyback rather than increased / special dividend. Posted earlier that I thought year end 130p-140p but that was without a reduction in tax from c 34% to 23%, which, according to the following article will increase eps by 17%, so make that 152p to 164p, PE16 gives mid of say £25.......so spot on Matt! Watch the broker upgrades start coming through now........always behind the curve. Good luck all. DD ps The normal bit of selling but at least it stayed blue today.

Oops, missed the first line of the paragraph: The equipment rental company will report its half year results on Tuesday...... DD

Couldn’t resist a ramp! http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/12/09/ashtead-set-report-soaring-profits-hurricanes-boost-work/ Extract:- “Tuesday, with analysts expecting pre-tax profits to be around £509m, 19.5pc higher than at the same point last year. Consensus estimates for revenues suggest they will be 27.8pc up on the same six month period in 2016, at almost £1.85 billion.” As suspected, an “exceed” market expectations looks to be on the cards.........hope so anyway!. DD

Hi Matt, also confused by the drop! Last years variable remuneration for the year was �24m so assuming �12m for this years H1 (this may be big unknown I suppose but got nothing but last year to go on), then reduced operating costs excluding variable remuneration would equate to (138m H1 last year minus 12m x 0.07) which is nearly �9m. Net trading revenue increased 9% so an increase of (244.9m x 0.09) which is �22m, so profit before tax should have gone up by �31m, an increase of 29%......must be missing something obvious!!! DD

pimpin, will go for �30 based on the following: Historical H1to H2 earnings weighting: FY 12/13 +1% FY 13/14 +4% FY 14/15 +63% FY 15/16 +82% FY 16/17 +79% Taking even a 5 year average (+45%) thats a forecast year end (assuming H1 is c 94p) eps of 230, so a PE of only 9. Even worst case with zero growth it�s still only on a PE of 11 and a PEG of 0.1. Still very cheap IMO, with a 5 year average PE of 13, eps 17/18 of say 230p, then sp target 2990. DD

Ronjoe - No probs and thanks but most brokers seem to be behind the curve!. This is just struggling at the moment to break and hold above 1940 resistance. Matt - Have replied on BVXP and thanks again. DD

Thanks Matt for your views on this, much appreciated. As you say a hold at the moment rather than a buy, will keep watching and will probably tip my toes in if it dips. All the best and well done on getting in here at �8! :) DD

Morning Ronjoe and many congratulations, I�m well jealous :) Do think that thanks to Harvey and Irma that the Q2 results in a couple of weeks will be the first �above expectations� since the interims last year and reading between the lines they hinted at this at Q1 (or perhaps I read too much into it!): �It is too early to attempt to quantify the impact of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma accurately on our business. However, it is evident that it will result in an increase in demand for our fleet and we will provide an update at the end of Q2.� As you know as a LTH, generally speaking the market constantly sets the bar very high for AHT and most �ahead of expectations� follows a run up in share price and then a sell on results. However, given there has been nothing but �in-line� thus far this FY then I�m hoping the normal sell on results will not happen and it will provide the impetus to break the 52 week high. IMO the sector still hasn�t reached the peak of the cycle, particularly in the US, so the Trump effect aside I still feel earnings for the year will beat expectations. Current forecasts are for underlying earnings of 120p, based on the Q1 growth in relation to last year I think it will be more like 130p-140p. With a five year average PE of 16 that�s a target price of c �21.60. Earnings growth even at constant exchange rates will mean this has a PEG less than 1 which is mainly what I focus on now. So whilst I agree that this is currently trading on a forward PE of 16 which is fair value with zero upside!, I do believe this will get a rerating at some point this FY (I hope so anyway). What broker was forecasting that AHT would 20 bag back in 2008/9?......answer: NONE. GL DD

Hi Matt, Had these on my watch list for a while and now may be a good entry price. The fundamentals are to die for but just not too certain about outlook, will Troponin and VitD sustain growth?, the BOD are as ever conservative in their forecasts but they have �1m of revenue to make up 17/18 and seem to be relying on Troponin alone and intimate VitD will see modest / plateau sales..........so what will 17/18 revenue look like (million dollar question!)?, personally think it will be okay even if VitD only modest (say +10% to +15%) growth, there is China, and back in FY 15/16 they were predicting that Tropinin would have covered the lost revenue of �700k to �800k for 17/18 but this is now cited at �1m.....difficult to predict and value this one, but love the business model, barriers to entry, the BOD and the fundamentals, just don�t know if it�s now slightly over valued. DD

Hi Matt, Stalking you! Lol...........BVXP you still holding?, see thread. Sorry for off topic. Good luck. DD

Hi Matt, Good to see your still in here and doing okay. Am kicking myself about IGG, still has �7 written all over it but got too inpatient - fool! Do wonder given the cyclical nature of AHT how long before it downturns, they say construction has 7 year cycles, will have held these 6 years come early 2018, so when will it turn?........guess a lot will depend on the Donald as much as anything else, interesting times though. dubious No problem didn�t think for one minute you attempted to mislead anyone. All the best. DD

dubious Harris reduced their holding by 0.14%. DD

Hi Matt, Hope all is well. Looks like this has got its mojo back again!........quite a days close for me, now a five bagger (my first!). Good luck. DD ps I sold IGG too early.......lesson: don�t make decisions on gut feelings, let the fundamentals do the talking!

Nice to see you have kept you�re sense of humour!, hope all is well. Will be off loading these as soon as they are worth more than the dealing fees!......that said Paul Scott is no fool when it comes to picking stocks, however, his relationship with TW is getting a bit suspect IMO. nilplused - Reynolds got �200k in fees for the RTO (sitting on his arse for a few months) if I recall and combined with all his BOD salaries you can see clearly how he makes a living - basically by transferring shareholders money into his fat bank account. DD