Member Info for Discodave4561

MO
All the best and hopefully you will pop back in and say hi sometime. Appreciated your posts, just didn’t understand half of them, my ineptitude not yours.

Stay lucky and healthy.
DD

Hi Matt and thanks. To be honest a poster on stocko mentioned the capital markets day presentation data but he got his numbers wrong.
Do you think this has been re-rated at less than PE15, or is it simply down to macro issues/concerns - but would still think that would be good for IG (sorry for going on about it buts it’s bugging me!).
Hopefully a better day tomorrow!
Good luck
DD

Doh, make that share price 65p (lol, error because everybody mentions 60p party,should be 65p party).

Romaron
I come from the Black Country and “shag” is also used in the same context. As well as “Skin”, “Blade”, “Mush”, “Mucka”.
DD

Pelle
Good: mid prod forecast for this year increased by 1k (was 54k now 55k); Paying down debt (won’t go there again), good hedges, +20% prod next year, Heather/Broom looking good and obviously Magnus acquisition.
Very Good (but nobody ever seems to mention): Year end EBITDA c $640m, basic eps 6.5p, should be a share price of at least 60p (PE10, Max last five years 9).
Not so Good: Not paying down debt as much as the pessimists would like, hedges could have been for longer, not much improvement in K prod since Interims and not too much extra until DC4.
Only really focussing on sp 60p, some seem to forget why we are here!.
DD

Based on the capital markets day presentation the UK/EU retail and professional revenue for last FY was about 63% of group revenue.
Given they have just updated and stated that 70% of UK/EU rev was professional clients then only 30% of this revenue will be impacted by ESMA, so based on last years revenue (£569m) thats 0.63 x 569 x 0.3 = £107.5m.
They also stated in the capital markets day presentation that mid range their predicted ESMA impact (UK/EU retail revenue) for this FY would be a 34% decline, so that’s a £36.5m (0.34 x 107.5m) reduction.
With year end revenue of £532.5 (569-36.5 which is a 7.5% reduction), a 45% pre tax margin (last year was 49%) gives pbt of £240m, post tax profit £194m, eps circa 53p (a year ahead of consensus forecast), target price with 5 year average PE of 15 gives circa 795p.
Even basing it on a simple 10% reduction in revenue for FY19, that’s £512m rev and an eps of circa 50.5p, with again a PE of 15 gives £7.59.
Can understand market jitters at the moment about Brexit, Corbyn, etc., but market volatility is bread and butter for IG, so slightly baffled at the sp movement here lately........perhaps I’m missing something. CMC is reporting similar lack of volatility and momentum but Plus appears to be bucking the trend with a recent “ahead of” update (if their numbers are pucker cough cough).

Still sitting on my hands here as wanted to see some strength in the sp before committing.
DD
DD

L3, sorry that’s Oiluser,
It’s maths not math, you and Fernan are like two peas in a pod. Filtered Fernan ages ago and now it’s your turn, in you go and mind the monkey, it bites!.
Your 32p exit post for me was the last straw.

DD

L3
It’s not beyond your capabilities to have posted the correct info on debt, yet you deliberately chose to post misleading and incorrect data.
Just for clarity:
Debt at 30th June $1,973.4m, today they state net debt at 31st October was $1,771.8m, so a reduction of nearly $202m.
They raised £107m via the rights and paid $100m for Magnus, so at current fx rates (if you prefer $) then the rights raised $136m. So excluding payment for Magnus rights contributed $36m to reduced debt.
Debt reduced $202m less $36m so like for like a reduction in debt of $166m. You posted it was a $100m like for like reduction.

L3
Your post is completely inaccurate with regards to debt and you admit it, doesn’t matter whether in sterling or dollars you we’re trying to play down how much debt has been paid off.
Will not be considerate to someone who has constantly bashed my investment.........you are definitely oiluser, same style same phrases and negativity, who also holds PMO.

L3
With regards to debt pay off I don’t agree with your numbers. They have reduced debt by £157m, the rights raised £107m, with £84m used to pay Magnus, so only £23m of the £157m was from the rights, so like for like a £134m reduction in debt (you posted $100m about £79m).
You are Oiluser without a doubt, the whole tone of your postings- the door to the cage is now open!.

Overall a reassuring and positive update. Only downer for me is K prod, thank god for Magnus deal is all I can say. Pleased to see a decent reduction in debt as well.
Let’s see what Mr Market thinks.

Yep nice to see oil up for once.
Hopefully 24+ close today. Guess trading update possibly tomorrow as well to maintain some momentum.

Yep, a snip at £293k, AB's no fool, nice update coming!.

chilts - Trump's tweet falling on deaf ears now by the looks of it, cry wolf springs to mind!.

Hi romaron,
Do see where you’re coming from but the measure of success at this point in time is clearly in favour of Shell compared to ENQ (last 5 years Shell +12% Enq -78%). I am however more inclined to sell Shell before ENQ and believe my capital return here will over time multibag which I do not see coming from Shell over the same period of time - this is higher risk.
Have read hitmans postings and would not say he is negative or has a hidden agenda, seems balanced and knowledgeable.
DD

L3
For me citing that poster Fernans views aligns with yours doesn’t say a lot tbh. Has he posted up bus share price forecast yet?, doubt it.......but would put money on the fact he has also posted nothing but negatives.
I don’t invest on the basis of hope, I do see the negatives here but the positives far outweigh the negatives, that’s why I bought and that’s why I intend to hold until the market realises the true value here.
If you only see negatives, because that’s all you ever post, then why don’t you sell up on move on. Or how about posting up why you invested here and what you think the positives are.........there’s enough trolls, bashers and general moaners frequenting this thread without adding to the list.
May just be your nature to see everything glass half empty, but stating those that have a different view (positive) as “hopers” just supports my opinion that you have an agenda and you may be oiluser - a balanced view would be refreshing if you don’t mind me saying!.

DD

romaron
Enjoy reading your posts but have to challenge your view on RDSB and ENQ. Going on share price charts:
RDSB: since 1983 +1500%, last 5 years +12%, last 3 years +40%, last 2 years +20%, last 12 months Zero (div 6%).
ENQ: last 5 years -78%, last 3 years +10%, last 2 years +8%, last 12 months Zero (div no chance).

DD
PS Held Shell for about 2.5 years, likewise ENQ............you can guess which has given me the better return!.

Smokin,
Agree completely, dont mind posters posting negatives but when they constantly only ever post negatives I question their motives - L3 is I believe oiluser, same MO, same style of posting, same terms used and alway seizing any opportunity to post just negatives, day after day, even the Moodys upgrade he turned into a negative rather than just taking it at face value.
Oh well, I just ignore now, along with a lot of other similar posters.

DD

L3
Don’t agree at all and didn’t say ENQ has to reduce debt by $245m for the market to be happy, even if $170m and hitting / beating prod forecasts and IMO the market will be more than happy.
DD

L3
Didn’t PMO forecast 80k-85k for the year, now it looks likely to be 80k or less. At their Interims they were at 86k and looking to beat forecasts, now it looks like a miss. Think IMO that’s the reason it got hammered.
They are forecasting a 12% reduction in net debt, for ENQ that would equate to c $245m.

DD

Watcha MO
550k!......told you, haha.

More fun and games.
DD