Member Info for Discodave4561

Hi Matt, wouldn’t disagree. My only gripe is they basically buy back every day no matter what the share price. Buying when this was at it’s all time highs, like any share purchase, is not the best way to maximise returns. Perhaps they do try and buy more when there are dips compared to peaks I don’t know I haven’t looked at the buybacks in detail. Have no firm view on buybacks one way or another really although there are some that contend that AHT could be reducing debt a bit more and increasing dividends, but it’s horses for courses IMO.

Sorry you’ve lost me Pelle.
Thought ENQ joint brokers were JPMorgan Cazenove and Stifel Nicolaus.Europe.

DD

Barclays no doubt did their analysis before Xmas break with poo looking like pants, personally don’t give a monkeys (oops) what analysts forecast, they cannot accurately predict anything especially poo.....not so long ago Macquarie had this with a target price of 7p ffs, says it all.

Why doesn’t the house broker issue a note with target price 60p, we can invite him to the party lol.

Chill
DD

That’s Itsa

Hi Matt
I do question them buying back shares at all time highs though and they should be buying proportionally more now when the share price IMO is undervalued. Lord Wolfson (Next) is regarded as the pioneer of maximising buybacks (see link) and I do wonder if AHT are following his rules, especially making sure that the equivalent rate of return is greater than any other investment opportunity (acquisitions etc). That said I believe a lot of US investors like buybacks more than those in the UK so that may also be a reason here.
http://www.hollandadvisors.co.uk/cms/resources/lord-wolfsons-wisdom-on-share-buybacks.pdf

DD

Thanks Krak, hats off to you for sticking with your conviction here..........unlike some that just keep crying, moaning and slagging off AB and the company.
Has been a roller coaster but value will out in the end.
DD

Thanks Fernan, would still like to see you post up what you think fair value is here! :)

Krak - If I’m wrong will always admit it. That’s yourself and Fernan released from the cage as misjudged you both, sorry. That said I’m usually a good judge of people so the remaining 27 trolls can stay put. Iffy Squiffy has now married AB’s monkey, both LSE and oiluser were maid of honour’s.....was quite a site, brought tears to my eyes (or was that what the monkey said!).

Big thanks to guys on here who do know a helluva lot more than myself when going through the finances.
Sincere apologies to Fernan, I completely misjudged your agenda here (please don’t just focus on negatives though! Lol).

The NAV 37p from RBC Numpty is still not correct as excludes Magnus, 53p is more like it, Her 15p target is about as accurate as she can get when throwing darts into a dart board, complete idiot.

DD

Well done Jan.

Net asset value alone excluding Magnus ($500m) is 35p. AB Bought £295k's worth late Nov at 23.3p and this RBC muppet reckons its only worth 15p with ridiculous numbers used.....crazy, how do these people get away with it!.

DD

Is 20% of K still up for sale I wonder.......$400m nice safety margin.

Yep Happy New Year everyone.
Good health for 2019.

ENQ day, most oilers up a lot today, not our boy though. Did look like a seller all day chucking off in 5k chunks holding it back. Oh well, always next week to catch up.
All the best for 2019 chaps.

To all holders.

“The Kingdom still needs Brent at a lot higher levels to break even. The IMF estimated this breakeven at almost $88 a barrel.”
HTTPS://www.rt.com/business/447208-saudi-arabia-highest-budget/
Be surprised if they get their $88 in 2019 but who knows, one thing seems likely though going on what’s happened lately, and that is to expect the unexpected.

DD

Itsa
Don’t mind at all that you are shorting my investment, what I do mind is gloating and you clearly gain some perverse pleasure from winding up other holders, it’s not your profit that gives you a kick but kicking people when their down - that’s the action of a grade A scumbag.

In the cage you go.
DD

Peel Hunt Buy 775
(I had 759 to 795, so 777 mid, will live with that).

Jan, hats off to you and I’ve been topping up too........not as much as you it must be said as already too heavy in Oiler’s and want to sit on cash and cherry pick some more non oiler bargains........”Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful”.
I imagine, if Squiffys past is anything to go on, that filling your boots Jan is the correct thing to do as no doubt the best fear barometer on this board is moaning and shitting his pants, thus be greedy my friend!.

Can’t be arsed to post up prod, rev, EBITDA forecasts........done that and settled on a target of 55p, so roll on 55p+.

All the best.
DD

Hi Matt and thanks.
Just pondering that this will not reach a PE of say 15 but will derate to about 10-12. When you look at Plus and CMX this is a higher rating and you could argue it’s out of kilter with sector competitors. Probably just over thinking, not helped by the recent drop when I thought it had gained strong support. Dilemma is timing the entry, I can sell easier than I can buy!.
Hope all is well elsewhere for you and hopefully we will get a Santa rally.
DD

Should be 2,700

Yep excellent results and URI up over 3% in after hours.........so hopefully this will provide some upward momentum tomorrow as well. Bit disappointed in the share price action today but it’s still phenomenally cheap IMO. I reckon year end eps could be at least 180p now which puts this on a forward PE of just under 9, it’s five year average from memory is 15, so a potential 62% upside and yet given its price weakness I’m beginning to think I must be missing something?. This is not only massively undervalued IMO it’s a very sound play against Brexit and sterling weakness......so what’s not to like!.
DD