Member Info for Discodave4561

Sorry typo, that should have been “similar calcs to previously posted....”
DD

Just been catching up on the H1 numbers and trying to work out year end forecasts (using similar class to previously posted in Dec).
For H1 69% of UK/EU revenue was “professional” clients so only 31% of this income (“retail”) would have been impacted by ESMA. Unfortunately IGG do not give the income splits for the group but last year the UK/EU “professional and retail” income was 63% of group revenue (so having nothing else to go on will use this split).
So UK/EU “professional and retail” income for H1 is circa £251m x 0.63 = £158m, thus UK/EU “retail” revenue is 0.31 x £158m = £49m (this will be impacted by ESMA). Simply annualising based on H1 (assuming not too much seasonality with IG income) then “retail” income FY19 is circa £98m. From last years capital markets day IG forecast that ESMA impact would be a 34% (taking their mid range forecast) decline in UK/EU “retail” income for FY19 compared to FY18 revenue, so this would be about £33m (98 x 0.34).
FY19 total group income forecast is £569m (FY18 total revenue) minus £33m is £536m (a Net 6% reduction compared to FY18). Given that H1 total revenue was a stated 8% lower than H1 last year then I’m inclined to use a mid point reduction of 7%. So FY19 total revenue c £529m. With a pre tax margin of 45% that gives £238m pbt, after tax £193m, eps 52p. PE I reckon of 10 to 12 is more likely so a share price of 520p to 624p.
Still think I will keep these on my watch list for a while longer (but now towards the bottom of the list!).......but who knows!.
Good luck.
DD

Happy Birthday White, keep the faith, value will out in the end...........ffs been saying that for nearly 3 years now! lol.

KO, know your a passionate chap who says it as you see it (not having a pop) but do worry you get too stressed out watching this every minute every day.........do yourself a favour, don’t look at all for a couple of days, you will realise that a “watch kettle never boils”.

DD
Has that chuffing iffy squiffy escaped again?

Hi Jan, how’s it hanging?
Yep I agree, enjoy reading Romaron’s posts, breaks up the number crunching posts (not that I mind them - providing it’s not Fernan or any other folk with a hidden agenda).
Anyway, looks quite perky here today for a change and perhaps the 5k algos have all dried up now.
Onwards and upwards
DD

Jan
Yep, sneaky little so and so, oh well monkey got a new baitch to play with.
Given his post today was old news, had already been mentioned on this board some time ago and was in the public domain since Sept last year, will leave it to others to decide what his motive was, but for me it’s not rocket science (never did trust him, crunch numbers, get respect and credibility then deramp......yep sneaky!).
DD

Jan
Told you the guy was a deramper, I foolishly apologised not long ago!, not now as his recent posting is a blatant deramp and the guy has never held here IMO just uses it as a way of crunching numbers and boosting his ego.

This is old news and priced in. From the Interims in Sept 2018:
“The Directors consider the merits of the claim to be poor and the Group is defending itself vigorously. The Group has not made any provisions in respect of this claim as the Directors believe the claim is unlikely to be successful; and in any event the Directors believe the chances of an outcome exposing the Group to material damages are remote.”

Fernan back in the cage you go, should have trusted my initial instincts about you and not let you out in the first place. You have always posted negatively about ENQ, never posted up a share price forecast (because it would have been too positive) and now just trolling, bye bye.
DD

Hi Matt,
Some negative read across from Plus (their numbers always looked odd, say no more!).
Good luck, still watching.
DD

Our resident troll obviously forgot which user name he was using this morning. The dot troll he obviously set up to no doubt thumbs up his own postings.........what a sad and desperate troll we have.

Beware the cunning yet stupid trolls.
DD

.Minerb
Filtered

Dol
That’s why it’s got the nickname of the Chronic Investor!

DD

E121
Thanks for passing on your knowledge about RCF/EBITDA, appreciated.

Sp action typical Enq - never the expected, surprised tbh that it finished blue!.
Needs ENQ IR / AB himself to bend the ear of the crap analysts and get the rerating it deserves now......RBC got everything wrong including their target price. Who (snigger snigger) in their right mind would short on the back of brokers forecasts, jeez, it’s well known that they are crap at forecasting, oh well!.
Onwards and upwards

DD

Hi E121
I did clock it but then worked EBITDA to $1971 as thought they meant net debt ratio rather than RCF net debt so gave up as misread it initially then couldnt remember what the RCF was.
So thanks for that, that would be a phenomenal year end EBITDA as only thought $650m.

KO just filter the troll ffs.
When I get chance to catch up today I don’t want to bevtrawling through pages of crap because folks keep feeding the troll.
Moan over but seriously, it’s a hard job trying to keep the trolls in the cage, what with the randy monkey, short supplies of KY, nuts and bananas, fez repairs, new locks, paying the Doberman’s, etc etc, so PLEASE STOP.

I will second that.
Thanks chaps for your expert views on this thread.
Do not feed the troll.
15p lololololololololololol must work for RBC

Based on H1 and H2 average poo difference (+1%) with similar prod H2, etc, I reckon EBITDA $650m worst case. That’s about 6p eps, taking an undemanding PE of 8 (FTSE O&G is 13) is 48p, even half that is 25% more than where we are now.
Cheap as chips IMO. Onwards and upwards........just hope AB hasn’t been shopping too much in the Jan sales!.

DD

CAT are going to be increasing their costs 1%-4% on construction plant due to increased costs of production (they can thank the Tango man in the big White House for that eh!).
So, could be an opportunity for AHT to increase margins or increase market share.........it will no doubt entice more to rent than buy irrespective of what AHT do.

DD

Hi Knigel
So you finally took the plunge and bought in here!, all I can say is good luck. You know already what I think so will leave it there.

DD

This will bounce - I hope!
Richard Bernstein founder and fund manager of Crystal Amber tweeted on 30th Jan “ we are buying”.
https://mobile.twitter.com/CrystalAmberRB1

DD

p.s. I started to buy here, and elsewhere, when poo was about $37.

Have a nice weekend all true holders.
DD

Hi Jan, hope all is well, post thumbs up.
Minerb is a liar, have proven that, so would not believe anything he posts, he is a position poster and will say anything to suit his book but like most idiots he thinks trolling a BB influences the sp, well it doesn’t. He is desperate and will constantly try and lure LTH’s into debate thus planting seeds of doubt as in his mind he feels more secure in his own contrarian position knowing a few pi’s may be questioning their positions - even though the market is telling him he is wrong. 15p is 21% away, so it would need a disastrous update coinciding with poo crashing for that to occur - yes it’s all IMO but the odds are stacked against a crap analayst and a BB troll.
No analyst or anybody on this board, long or short, can forecast what the sp will be in 6-12 months time, all I know is that the odds are it will be higher than where it is now - providing I make my profit I will be off to leave some for the next man. Tried at the start (nearly 3 years now) to crunch the fundamentals and all it said to me was ENQ has too much debt but the shares are undervalued BUT it all depends on POO - this is a cyclical punt on poo and Enq management that’s all, can crunch numbers until blue in the face IMO but the sensitivity analysis around poo being $50 or $90 will mean either boom or bust, so I sleep better not worrying and not listening to trolls who think they do know what poo will be.

So “ Do Not Feed The Troll”

All the best peeps, and nice to see you posting MO.
DD