Member Info for Discodave4561

Ditto
+ spindok for laughs

Why should the market take any notice of Cairn CEO who clearly doesn’t know his arse from his elbow as far as K is concerned.
IMO this will move rapidly when it’s official, that K is 50k+ and debt is reducing, AB knows that and is doing what I wish I could do..........back up the truck!.
Anybody lend me say £50k?.

DD

Ps sorry duplicate post, new site just as crap as old one!

Hi members,
Only three questions:
1 Please support with some factual data analysis why 15p
2 Since when was Zacks a registered broker?, they are a research company nothing more.
3 What’s your position here?, think I can guess but one should not make hasty assumptions!

All, the best, oh, sorry one more, what current problems with K?

DD

Hi members,
Only three questions:
1 Please support with some factual data analysis why 15p
2 Since when was Zacks a registered broker?, they are a research company nothing more.
3 What’s your position here?, think I can guess but one should not make hasty assumptions!

All, the best, oh, sorry one more, what current problems with K?

DD

Somebody said no share buyback for a few years, think AB has other plans and is doing a buyback by the amount of shares he keeps picking up. Reckon it must be about £1.6m so far just this calendar year.
He is no fool.

DD

Be good to get an operational update, particularly on K prod, sometime soon before H1 early Sept. Sentiment for ENQ has to change at some point and value come to the fore..........just taking a lot longer than I had hoped!.

DD

The spike up yesterday was due to Richard Bernstein from Crystal Amber tweeting:
"Keeping a close eye on the Go Compare share price: a 6% jump in the last few mins of trading yesterday. Last year, GoGo rejected a takeover approach , following the previous rejection of Zoopla's 110p bid. With global interest rates tumbling, PE must be re-running the numbers."

Being manipulated IMO.
DD

By my calcs I reckon AB has bought about £1.2m so far in 2019, some vote of confidence.

Londoner - welcome, some impressive analysis, over my head tbh, just do back of fag packet calcs.

Onwards and upwards.

Thanks Pelle and E121 for feedback on Debt/EBITDA.
My $800m EBITDA May be conservative but I don’t have the detailed understanding you guys have so only a back of fag packet calculation. They do have $100m to pay off in October so have allowed for that as well as taking onboard 23% uplift in production.
E121 - Happy debt seems to be around $1.4bn-$1.5bn, what’s your view on EBITDA ?
Thanks
DD

Thank you E and romaron for feeding back here, all sounds positive to me.
On the subject of net debt/EBITDA for yr end, is $1.4bn realistic for net debt and $800m EBITDA (only done very quick calcs), which gives a ratio of 1.8x.
Thanks again chaps and for anybody else that went.
DD

Ended today virtually where we started at the beginning of the week, stating the obvious but today was poo driven (PMO dropped 13.6%) so update was taken positively IMO........just think how much it could have dropped if it was perceived as poor.
KO - know you have a lot here but IMO the update was very positive, think many got carried away by AB’s buying and the ramp up in sp, but at least we know now and value will come eventually, can’t do anything if poo doesn’t play ball.

DD

Londoner,
Completely agree, didn’t see your post but looks like we were both thinking much the same.
Onwards and upwards, time to check the cage out.

DD

That’s “of being less than 2x” (not not being! - bloody phone)

That’s panickers on here.

Was a good update on a bad day generally.
Only slight disappointment was they haven’t increased prod forecast, but early days. They are only including 35k gross average from K for the remaining 8 months (to achieve their mid range 32.5k average for the year) which seems very conservative to me.
Also, most seem to be missing the debt/EBITDA will be LESS than 2x, whereas at year end finals they were forecasting that it would be “approaching” 2x from its then ratio of 2.47x for 2019. AB even emphasised the point of not being LESS than 2x. So if year end net debt is circa £1.4bn, with 24% uplift in production then EBITDA could be circa $800m giving a Debt/EBITDA of 1.8x. Sounds a good risk to reward to me!.

DD
Ps have to agree with EP, too many panicked son here.

All the best to all true holders for tomorrow.
DD

'Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful' - The Monkey from the cage 17th May 2019

Hi KO,
That though had also crossed my mind........in a way I hope not, this needs some period of stability not another fund raise!.
DD

Looks like BP went to the Trump school of negotiation - threaten a lot to gain a little. As romaron said it’s all postering that’s all, BP have no doubt spent hundreds of millions on Clair and with its “output expected to peak at 120,000 barrels a day” it’s SVT rates now need to be re-negotiated. Clair via SVT will always be the most cost effective for BP otherwise they wouldn’t be negotiating now, they would have just used the cheaper alternative......all IMO.

DD