Member Info for Discodave4561

Nice to see some longs having a good couple of days here.
Intended to get in earlier but unfortunately other things have got in the way so will see now.

Matt agree about the balance sheet.
Personally think CS are too optimistic and some other analysts too pessimistic, so IMO 40-50 is more realistic but it could go either way as well.
Interesting one though.

Sorry, it was poster topsharepicks not stockpicker.......it’s my age and sun glaring on computer screen. Lol

Blue dreamer
Hopefully you will be able to go up there soon and looking on the bright side everything will be appreciated more.
Yes it’s been battered but still do think it’s because of their weak balance sheet, most investors are now avoiding high leveraged companies and looking for sufficient liquidity to be able to survive even an extended lockdown and this at the moment doesn’t tick enough boxes.
Although stockpicker posted something from 2008 about Buffett rumours, I do hear that Berkshire haven’t as yet started to invest heavily in this downturn, so who knows, can live in hope I suppose!.........but not yet please WB I’ve not opened a position yet!.

Pokerchips
Possibly then, trouble is sentiment is very poor at the moment and although the 5 year average PE is 12, the current PE is only 5, probably explains the variable forecasts from analysts, from c 29p to 70p.
Think they need to show the market that profit warnings are all behind them and significant changes are afoot, not false promises aka Conn. Lets hope O’Shea is not a Conn!.

Pokerchips
I just went on FY20 eps being about 4p, and rated on a PE of 10 (think the FTSE100 is on 12 and guess will stay in that area for the rest of this year).
Agree let’s see what the new CEO has in mind but scaling down the business wouldn’t do it any harm in my opinion.

No offence taken at all.
If you are a holder here, assume you are, then hope it comes good for you too.
Did I read that you have a van in Northumberland?, that brought back some childhood memories holidaying in that area, beautiful part of the country, was only very young so couldn’t even remember where we went but my late parents talked fondly about our times there.

Hi,
No, why?

Thanks pipedreamer.
Respect your views too. I agree, nothing from the chart indicates to me that the overall downtrend has finished, it keeps making new record lows and I wouldn't invest until as you say the breakout has been confirmed. The quandary I have is from fundamentals I only think it’s worth 40p max (could be wrong) so may have to gamble rather than wait for confirmed uptrend. Either way IMO it’s still a short term punt.

I’m with BG too, no issues yet with the service.
Being a relatively happy customer though is miles away from being an investor in the group. It’s so badly managed and do believe it needs massive changes to its structure and overall strategy.
Do I have any faith in the BoD absolutely not, but perhaps O’Shea may be what was needed, only been there 2 years so happy to give him the benefit of the doubt.......as ever time will tell.

anon
Very balanced post, I’m in two minds as well (no position). It’s a pure punt now, IMO it depends on whether they take this opportunity to sort the balance sheet out or not.
DD

Is it time to have a punt on this?

They have had a plan for nearly 5 years and in that period issued 4 profit warnings.
Appreciate you are a holder here but don’t let that cloud the facts. Look at their statutory numbers.
They only have £3.3bn of cash and credit, check out how much it costs to run the business (costs plus Opex plus inflation minus efficiency and C19 savings) and you will soon see that this is close to becoming insolvent.
IMO they will be lucky to make 4p eps this year, if they survive that is.

Toff
Think you need to re-read my post, I was challenging what aimtitan was saying.
Longer term I agree with you, their costs are very close to, if not more, than their cash + credit. In truth wouldn’t touch this as a long term investment, but as a short term punt trading potential momentum then a more likely proposition.
Apologies to long term holders for my negative view but that’s how I see it.

Hi,
For the record I have no position here, I’m more bearish for the medium/long term but there may be some shorter term upside IMO. Just wanted to flag something that you posted:
‘Furloughing staff only serves to reduce the operating cost, the income is unaffected and therefore increased profit.
Additionally with energy prices dropping they can forward fix supplies much cheaper.‘
Staff furlough will save them about £10m/month (not a game changer). Their income is being affected due to customers not paying their bills, analaysts reckon bad debt will hit bottom line by c £200m. On your latter point, they are tied into a legacy gas contract which will incur a pre tax loss of about £100m for 2020. Lower commodity prices has a negative impact to their bottom line despite some hedging - Ofgem will always adjust tariff cap to take on board lower commodity/wholesale prices.

DD

Well done chaps.
Just a quick question and apologies upfront as I’ve only skimmed the results, but any thoughts please on forecast net debt reduction 2020 with a 13% reduction in production.
Thanks

Hi guys, hope it is a flyer for you all tomorrow. I’m still sitting on my hands after selling up at 19.7.
All the best

Looking more short term, Cairn’s finals next week (possibly Thursday) so they could uplift K’s 2P.

DD

Hi,
Not a holder here but like the look of it so now on my watch list. I agree with all the potential positives due to Corona but also conscious of the negative impacts if it continues to spread for a few more months, as per their year end results statement it will hit them and eradicate any associated tailwinds (that’s my interpretation anyway), so happy to wait until their Q1 update 16th April.

“To date, the main impact of the virus has been on our operations in China. In other parts of the Group customer enquiries for hand-washing and hand-sanitising services are strong. At this point in time we would expect only a small net impact on the business in Q1.
We are monitoring the situation very closely, looking to mitigate the risk of the impact that the virus may have on our colleagues, customers and supply chain. The majority of products sourced from suppliers in China are covered by existing stocks for the next few months.
Should the situation continue for an extended period or become materially worse, this could obviously have a more negative impact during the rest of the year.”

Hi Jan,
Still sitting on my hands. Travel, leisure and oiler shares in particular are being whacked by the virus so until things have settled I’m happy to be in cash and pick up bargains.
Had trimmed my portfolio down earlier in Jan anyway and moved some into bonds, just watching and waiting now. This is about 8% below my sell price and was tempted to get back in yesterday but will see now.

Good luck to all holders, particularly long termers.........I see the worm has turned yet again!, why oh why did folks on here give it the time of day in the first place!!.