Member Info for Discodave4561

Yep a lot of mentally deranged individuals on that site, it’s definitely been getting worse recently and decent threads are the minority now unfortunately.

Hopefully on Monday Boris will confirm cruise staycations can commence after May 17th which will give this the next leg up.

Apologies you are correct, the 4% growth did not include lockdowns (I misread the following which states they did benefit from the lockdowns).
From the last accounts:
‘Like-for-like revenues (I.e. excluding the impact of acquisitions made during the FY20) from April 2020 - September 2020 (I.e. since UK lockdown began) were 22% higher than the same period of FY20. Other than a small area of the Lighting category (supplying lighting to trade) all other categories of the Group have experienced revenue growth during the pandemic, compared to the same period in FY20. Management attribute this to the nature of its product categories, some of which are considered to be consumer staples and their low price points (relative to other brands available). As the British public has stayed at home, they have needed more household batteries, have spent more discretionary income on home-improvements (including lighting) rather than travel; and have been able to vape more flexibility at home (compared to their work environment).’

Yep, massively incentivised to get the share price up to ratings which won’t reflect their growth.
Your choice, laugh away.......only 4% growth in bottom line profit last FY and that was with some Covid tailwinds.
We each have different views and I wish you the best.

Agree the Directors remuneration has been modest over the years (£256k over the last 5 years but £196k in the last FY).
There’s no justification IMO for any company to be paying out £16m in dividend (could have been £4m to each Director) when their profit was only £10.4m. Whether the recipients deserved it or not is not really the point, that is some payout in a single year, and it seems the “rewards” are set to continue now it’s listed. Just my opinion based on numbers in the public domain.
You still haven’t explained your previous comments about the loan and dividend being related.

Hi Joker
What do you mean the loan and dividend were related?.
I’ve simply posted what was in the accounts, they paid a £16m dividend, they didn’t reinvest it for growth they gave it to those holding the ten shares.

Cheque!

‘annualised growth of about 26% is required’ - to achieve 100% growth in three years (sorry meant to add and unfortunately this site doesn’t allow posts to be edited, so sorry for the 4 in a row (brain doesn’t keep up with my typing!).

Based of their last FY eps post listing equates to 9p, so already on a PE of 22.
Taking the IPO price of 134p, and assuming the price correlates with earnings (not that it always does) then annualised growth of about 26% is required, to be “value” I will assume a PEG less than 1, so a PE of 25.......a lot seems to be already baked in IMO.
Interesting though!.

The acquisitions of Shannon Protein Technologies and Protein Dynamix during 2018 is perhaps the reason for the significant step up in profits between 2018 and 2019?.

Yep some nice options for the CEO et al.
In 2019 net cash generated from operations was £6.2m, bottom line profit increased significantly, (more than double for some reason but the prior year it declined 21%) to £10.4m and to celebrate they paid out nearly £16m (yes £16m) in dividends, they also took out a nice secured loan to the tune of £16.4m, draw your own conclusions!. Believe there was a total of 10 shares receiving £1.6m per share in dividend that year, I wonder how many shares each of the four directors held?.
If the options were linked to anything other than the share price then I might be tempted, still might but the BOD pay offs sour it for me at the moment.

topshare
Any sells won’t be shorts closing, they have to buy the shares back in order to close their positions.
If I’ve misinterpreted what you are saying then my apologies.

Hi
IMO the FTSE100 isn’t what it was in terms of defining quality and “Blue Chip”. Believe this is better off where it now is as it takes the pressure off.
Looks like it’s already working!
Good luck

Hi
Until it’s closer to the next review how much this needs to be is impossible to say. It’s not just the mcap here it’s how much are the 113 (think that’s the cut-off) in the top tier worth.
IMO this will be better off staying outside for a while rather then doing the Hokey Cokey.

Pipedreamer
Don’t see it going that low, perhaps high twenties again, but who knows tbh. Do think there is more upside potential but unless they sort the main issues out (as per my previous post) then the investment case for me isn’t there.
Such a shame for long term holders, the potential IMO is huge but the BOD just aren’t up to it, or haven’t been up to now, will O’Shea be any different, only time will tell but as yet I’m not seeing it!.

It is the level of debt combined with IMO insufficient operating cash flow and a very weak balance sheet that need to be addressed (some additional cash in the order of £500m). Most press articles state incorrectly that the divestments will be used to reduce debt, however the company have said many times now that it won’t, it will be used to fund their home strategy. So no divestment no strategy development, more drawdown and increased debt which impacts their credit ratings. Lots of other issues creating a perfect storm that at the moment they haven’t really provided any clarity on how they intend to move forwards and address the key issues. That said, for most businesses 2020 will now be a right off so looking on the bright side their managerial incompetence will be brushed under the Corona carpet, most of their issues occurred pre Corona, and it’s a play on 2021+.
This is going to just drift IMO until they update the market, it’s been over a month now and uncertainty will hit the sp IMO.

Pipedreamer
Not interested in trying to catch the bottom, it will never happen, if it does it’s pure luck or bull **** IMO. If I believe it’s undervalued and the risk/reward is okay then will invest and hold long term, not a day trader.
Sorry cant see where you have updated your TA here since about 3 weeks ago, or mentioned use of your algo’s. That said the update Friday will drive which way this is going next.

I only have one rule, buy low and sell at a profit.
Good luck with your algos mixed with TA, be good if you could post up what your model is saying about CNA.

Yep good to see a decent rise, especially for long suffering holders.
I’m waiting for the update Friday, still believe they will need to strengthen their balance sheet so be interesting to see if any movement in that direction. As with most shares at the moment trying to forecast/guess what value/risk exists as investments is nigh on impossible and I’m happy to hold cash until it’s clearer.

dalesflyer
That was the uncrossed trade, not a real trade just balancing books.