Member Info for Discodave4561

NG

Not being obtuse in the slightest. I’m posting my views and asking questions.

I’d hope that you have also read other peoples adverse and inappropriate postings but somehow by your demeanour I’d guess that’s a big fat no.

I see absolutely no reason whatsoever why I shouldn’t post here - unless you are suggesting that any contrarian views are not allowed!.

I do have some doubts about YU, and I will post them here, not because I may be short. I’m also open to trading long on momentum if the business delivers. But I definitely am not a buy and hold and prefer to hear about the bear as well as the bull case - unfortunately the one thread on ADVFN only caters for perma bulls. I’m hoping this is different so it benefits all concerned.

Thanks NG

Will give Joe a bell and ask what their fees are for promoting the business and relaying what the business tells them.

So Liberum knew how many customers during FY23 were not only going to default (bad debt) but were also going out of business when determining their implied average?.

So you reckon Shell wanted a JV, didn’t hit the press.

Guess we’ll also find out a bit more about the Shell deal in terms of their fee and how well they are actually doing.

I’d read that the consultancy involved in the negotiations that some collateral was involved, do you know what that is, could it be equity?. Appreciate cash collateral is not involved but clearly Shell won’t be doing it for gratis.

NG

I’d heard via elsewhere that you or someone here mentioned that Shell wanted a piece of YU, would you mind if it was yourself providing where that info came from, a link or whatever it would be appreciated (guess others would be curious to know to if I’m being blanked).

From your attitude i get that you prefer a thread where perma bulls only reside, where any negativity is dismissed automatically, but to-date I’ve not actually been negative, well not deliberately anyway!.

Good fortune

Really!

I get the reason to use an implied number of meters to compensate for customers signing up during the FY, or for customers going elsewhere. But to use that for future income is a complete finger in the air. They may know when and how many new customers are coming online but they won’t have a clue about companies going out of business. But the lower number of meters implied for the entire year will skew the income per meter outturn.

“There was an implied average of 39.5k meter points during FY 23 and sales of £460m. This suggests c. £11,700 of sales per meter point”

Note the word “implied average”…..actual meters FY23 was 53,400. Which with revenue of £460m gives £8,614 per meter for FY23. NOT £11,700.

Talk about posting false info Blade!.

False Info, me, never, some on here do but not me.

Anyway folks can chose to do whatever they like, just as I can post here whatever I like (within the T&C’s obviously).

I see they have finally managed to update their financial calendar - not that it tells you anything other than interims will be sometime in Sept (there’s a surprise), but they prefer to keep the market in the dark as to whether or not there will be a TU this month.

Ipc66

Agree, could be different customer usage profiles.

I recall someone posted some calculations on here based on £11,700 pa per meter, which is completely incorrect and tbh don’t know where that came from as looking back a few years it’s never been that and as you say it’s never going to be a consistent figure for the reasons you’ve also mentioned.

I’m dubious about the actual cost to be incurred by the Shell contract, and how contracts existing and new have transitioned in February from SmartestEnergy to them. We will see in due course no doubt.

What will their ROCs payment be this August?

Apologies yes they forecast 50% growth in revenue. Consensus Rev is £674m (given SP Angel had £668m then house broker must be circa £680m). If 100k meters for the year then income per meter has reduced by 22% to £6.7k (FY23 was £8.6k). Which obviously is as a result of the fall in energy price since FY23.

Will have to see how well their new hedging deal is performing, that’s the crux for bottom line earnings.

They don’t provide a revenue target, number of meters could be 100k for the year, but you can’t use the £11,700 avg per meter as the figure to predict future income, its finger in the air, could be more could be less but meter numbers is no indication of their income, as Bobby himself says 50% increase in meters does not mean 50% increase in revenue (despite what I’ve read on here).

Any thoughts on H1 revenue? £280m, £300m……..whatever the thinking, it could be miles out.

They updated the market on current trading less than 3 months ago, didn’t they?.

Agree comms generally is rubbish though. Even now their financial calendar for upcoming events still includes the capital reduction news which has come and gone. Whoever they are paying for comms / PR / IR is clearly a waste of money.

Looking at previous TU’s, it could be next week at the earliest but who knows?, usually a Tues or Thurs.

Did anyone listen to the webinar last evening on AJ Bell?

I don’t know is the short answer, not up to speed with FL, perhaps they are being hit more by the Yeezy affair. All I know is they only missed earnings forecasts by 3%, they did warn in March that sales and profits would be lower, and dropped forecasts a bit more I think following Q1. They have so I believe at least 400 stores that are not profitable which they are now looking to close. My take is that FL are a poorly managed business, don’t know what else you can put it down to tbh.

The market as ever has over reacted IMO.

Captain

Where did you get that Foot Locker pre their Q1 was 40?

From the link below you can see that it was around 11.7 before results and it’s now 8.5x. The 5 year median is just below 10x, the low last year was around 3x and its historical high was 27x.

For disclosure I’ve held these on and off over the years and bought back last year.

Thanks

https://ycharts.com/companies/FL/pe_ratio

Moving staff to existing premises is hardly an “expansion”

Video streaming subscriptions fall by two million in 2022 Https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64450202

Despite the CEO saying the cost of living crisis will have zero impact, try telling the Netflix ex subscribers that:
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2023/jan/01/netflix-to-lose-700000-uk-customers-in-two-years-analysts-predict

Olmsey
The new bond was listed on Dublin stock exchange on 2nd July (check out the exchange website - search for Saga bonds). So an extra £80m cash on the books, that’s circa £158m now.
The new financing clearly stated as part of the covenants that no dividend with leverage greater than 3x, so that’s up to July 2023.
Can you confirm what free cash they do have as you seem to know more than most?
Thanks and good luck

IMO would be very surprised if they delay any important announcements with regards to getting the economy back on track. The Government haven’t been particularly brilliant at supporting the travel industry and they definitely need to start providing more clarity for the sector - but stranger things have happened.
Shapps announcement last week seemed to fall on deaf ears, so clearly more meat on the bones is required and sooner rather than later (they can’t keep kicking the can down the road as it takes months for the logistics to be implemented).

Jefferies increases target from 344 to 500.
HTTPS://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-9457275/Warehouse-deal-transform-Boohoo.html