Member Info for Discodave4561

SNN

Thanks for your comprehensive reply and being upfront.

I’m more conservative as to their H1 numbers and beyond, but that’s just my opinion, as is everybody else’s, none of us can predict the future. Unfortunately some take it personally, particularly when potential risks / issues are mentioned, but won’t go there.

There is a good chance that if this becomes technically overbought by the 23rd that there’s a pullback on the day - we agree I think!. Will there be sufficient news to maintain upward momentum? Who knows, I will play it as it comes.

Oh dear.

The CFO and Director of Retail selling more than 50% of their holdings is not a positive sign and you are assuming too much about the future.

Yes I felt a PW was coming because following their investor day the share price continued to fall at a decent rate plus last year they issued a TU in May. It was an opinion that proved to be wrong but its not etched in stone, the moment has past, I called it wrong (didn’t lose a penny), get over it.

You never post my correct calls.

SNN

Why wouldn’t I do detailed research?, I’m not purely a day trader, I buy and hold too. Also shorting requires more research generally. As for YU I’ve made it clear to my fans elsewhere that I’m not likely to buy and hold as dont believer their exceptional growth is sustainable. So I initially traded in its upward momentum, then shorted on a recent dip.

From today its broken SMA50 resistance and the descending channel so may go long up to 23rd if shows strength. Then close EOP 22nd. I’m not too certain they will be blowing the doors off with the TU but confirmation of divi / BB may negate that. Also if the sp continues to rise to the TU there will be profit takers and sell on news irrespective.

I don’t spend hours watching my screen and dipping in for a few points here and there, prefer to try and catch sustainable momentum in either direction.

I see Sparky has posted elsewhere chasing me to answer your post. Now you can answer mine:

- Where did you see a target of 100k smart meter installations

- How do you get to 130p eps

Thanks

Ps to Sparky - are you happy now!. Please don’t chase me daring me to answer peoples postings, I will not respond to you next time. I would have happily answered SNN in my own time as I’ve no issues with SNN

SNN

H1 eps 130, we will see, but id pencilled in 105-115.

There’s a danger this gets technically (RSI) overbought up to the 23rd, then if an inline folks (traders too) will sell. That’s what tends to happen, not saying it will before I get shot down.

Looks like IR are finally doing what they should and updating their calendar and communicating with the market.

Seems like they do read some BB’s!

How much £ are you thinking in terms of a share buyback?. Just the capital reduction sum (£12.28m) or more?.

If just the £12.28m then on todays market price that would buy circa 4% of the shares in issue (if my sums are correct), so +4% to eps and if not rated higher (although that’s the unknown IMO) then it should follow a similar “enhancement” to the sp. IMVHO

What’s your estimate for ROCs next month? £28m?

SNN

Have seen their target for 25k Smart meter installations for FY24 but not 100k (read their AR and can’t see that as a target for specific Smart meter installs - if you have seen that as a longer term target could you point me in the right direction). The number of meters doesn’t align with number of customers either, some customers will obviously have multiple sites / meters (don’t they have circa 33k customers but meters are 54.3k). Interestingly they also said in their AR that they could start to install their Smart meters for other suppliers, now that would / could be a very lucrative area of growth for them (install fee plus rental charge), one I’d like to see them pursue.

Ps BG can install smart meters in about 2 hours

SNN

Thanks for that info on Shell. The consultancy that was involved on the negotiations mentioned there was a collateral element which as it’s not cash I assumed equity as the business is capital light (even BK owns the HQ and gets a decent income from the lease agreement!).. As they want some part of the business could Bobby be thinking of a secondary placing with them? (that was my initial thinking anyway).

Be interesting to see more detail on the Shell deal and how well they perform (got some doubts there too - probably be lambasted again for that).

Agree. Holders should be rational in terms of identifying potential risks (but some believe there aren’t any).

PMSL

“stalks every post I make “ - nope, I correct all the false information you post up.

Once again, I’m not interested in tittle tattle but will always correct misinformation.

Yes I’ve answered it more than once.

Why do you think a business would increase their distributable reserves by doing a capital reduction - fairly obvious to me!.

Suggest folks that want to prejudge based on childish tittle tattle simply put me on filter.

Not going to get into this behaviour myself, I’m here to discuss YU.

You haven’t got a professional qualification.

Why do you think?, it’s fairly obvious and I’ve already answered previously.

Sorry but as you have stalked me all over ASVFN I’m afraid I’m going to have to filter you.

Was just thinking about their H1 numbers and what’s expected (whilst the focus will naturally be on brokers forecasts but the market will no doubt want signals in the TU they will be ahead and to what degree). I’m assuming from the TU there will be some confirmation of income, margins and cash. sufficient (hopefully) to assess what the actual H1 bottom line will look like.

Last May they already flagged they were ahead of forecasts and the July update gave some meat on the bones. This year they didn’t do that, so possibly an in-line H1? (but can’t see any info by analysts as to what that means - hence my question).

Not too certain about the Shell deal as no details have been forthcoming (other than there’s no cash collateral required), I still have some doubts on that front.

What is the market expecting for H1?:

Rev £300m - £310m?

Pbt £24m - £26m

Eps circa 105p to say 115p?

SNN

Thanks for that, I too wish holders good fortune (although I very much doubt some folks here will believe that!).

You are virtually spot on. Sometimes it is possible to take a flyer and place your SB before the TU (obviously if the date is known), but yes not the norm. Even if placing your SB on the day it’s not a given you’ve called it right (nothing is in this world). It depends on the sp action leading up to the TU, the underlying trend over the medium term, what’s out there in terms of forecasts and macros, and gut feel. If the sp has already had a good run and then increases at a higher rate a few days before then the chances are it will pullback on results even if it’s inline with forecasts (in some instances even a slight beat when previously it’s been blowing the doors off), down to the sell on news theory and traders taking profits.

YU not conforming the date of the TU doesn’t help, but I tend not to place my SB until there’s some confirmation on the day of it’s likely short / medium direction (the city folks acting on behalf of clients won’t even be awake at 8am, it’s usually between 9am - 10am).

We will see.

Looking at the chart there’s a descending channel from April. If the TU blows the doors off and exceeds expectations then would expect it to break through the upper trend line at c 1740 (if TU next week) and make its way towards a new 52w high. On the flip side if it’s only an in-line then wouldn’t expect that to be sufficient to initiate or maintain any upward momentum in the short term.

Perish the thought eh but if they don’t meet then could crash through the lower trend line (c 1420 again if TU next week) and may then fill the gap at c 1350). All IMO and no expert TA.

NM

Completely wrong. Postings by pi’s here or anywhere else will have no influence on the share price. Naive to think otherwise IMVHO.

Guess the more customers the more reviews both positive and negative. Should be borne in kind that companies pay Trustpilot (so no surprise scores are higher!).

The customers experience below is quite shocking, and there’s mention of false tariffs by brokers and law suits (which as I’ve posted is a concern I have).

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/simonwoodhead_a-quick-update-on-my-farms-yu-energy-lon-activity-7133783688672088065-rE-E

Thanks, but someone’s posted it will be next week. They usually do Tuesdays or Thursdays looking back at previous TU’s.

No volume again.

The TU should get this moving one way or another.