Member Info for Discodave4561

Forecast eps 192, PE 9x, TP say 1730. With eps growth only forecast to be 10% next FY that’s say £19.

But let’s see how this year goes. CFO and MD Retail

Sold over half their holdings at £17 so would ask why if they thought £20 or more was likely?.

One poster here (NG) was posting £100 in the future, but after the July TU crash not a word.

Folks can believe whatever they like, personally only see this as a trading stock on momentum either way. Will stick with my view that profits are not sustainable, they’ve simply benefitted from the energy crisis brought on by Ukraine and now the M/East. Prior to that they couldn’t make a decent profit if anything at all.

Lots of ramping on here, namely £100 share price, some balance definitely needed IMO.

Hope that answers your questions, oh and are you saying only long term holders can post their views here?.

Good luck.

From their interims:

The increase is despite mild temperatures experienced in Spring 2024, which softened customer consumption, reducing revenue by c£9m in the period. In addition, tariffs charges to customers are based on a more normalised energy market, which has led to a lower contribution from uncontracted customers (on variable tariffs which track the prevailing energy market) and lower tariffs secured in our contract portfolio.

Folks should also check the gas contract price chart in their interim presentation. Not the same trend as spot price.

Irishdemon

Had a quick look and EV charging kit installation and maintenance is part of the YU Smart income stream. But struggling to see how much energy is supplied specifically for customers using EV chargers for their vehicles. Would assume it’s not a large chunk of their energy income but would be grateful if you could confirm how “minor” it actually is, just curious now.

Thanks

Spot price is completely irrelevant to YU, nobody knows how much Shell are charging YU in their 5 year contract. Even if energy prices increase Shell could be taking the margin. This is a new ball game now, not SmartestEnergy.

Shell’s Q3 results today and their 9 month analysis / summary (in part but note reference to lower gas prices): Shell nine month analysis - note lower gas prices:

“Income attributable to Shell plc shareholders, compared with the first nine months 2023, reflected lower refining margins, lower LNG trading and optimisation margins, lower realised LNG and gas prices as well as lower trading and optimisation margins of power and pipeline gas in Renewables and Energy Solutions, partly offset by lower operating expenses, higher Marketing margins and volumes, higher realised Chemicals margins, and higher Integrated Gas and Upstream volumes.“

Shell’s Q3 results today and their 9 month analysis / summary (in part but note reference to lower gas prices): Shell nine month analysis - note lower gas prices:

“Income attributable to Shell plc shareholders, compared with the first nine months 2023, reflected lower refining margins, lower LNG trading and optimisation margins, lower realised LNG and gas prices as well as lower trading and optimisation margins of power and pipeline gas in Renewables and Energy Solutions, partly offset by lower operating expenses, higher Marketing margins and volumes, higher realised Chemicals margins, and higher Integrated Gas and Upstream volumes.“

Irishfemon

How much of the energy supplied to their SME customers comprises of EV charging points on their sites?

How much income do they get from EV charging at customers properties? It’s particularly valid point as YU’s stated business strategy is to: “Play a key role supporting businesses in their transition to lower carbon technologies with a commitment to providing sustainable energy solutions”.

Given the budget will force SME’s to drastically cut costs will their use of EV’s for their businesses be the first to get cut, and given the increased purchasing capital required will those that were potentially going to convert their fleet to EV’s aren’t now going to.

Don’t think calling someone an idiot and taking the pee actually reflects too well on yourself IMO.

Monkey

Been long and short, currently no position.

Just posting views and facts to balance against the constant ramping by someone that sold years ago.

Why is it bothering you to the point of making false accusations?.

Did you believe what NG was posting here?, worth £100 per share in the future yet hasn’t posted since the sp crashed after the July TU?, but that fantasy was okay because it aligned with what holders want to believe.

Yep, definitely DYOR plus stick the the matter in hand please.

Someone probably still banging on about daily spot price of gas, which is completely irrelevant as nobody knows what Shell are charging YU plus their forward gas contract price is not the same as the daily spot price (folks check the forward gas price chart in their interim presentation).

Just to also post up facts about the UK spot price: the average per therm for 2023 was 99.4p. For this year to end of Sept 2024 the average price was 83.1p. Okay it’s increased in Oct but it’s still nowhere near the average price of last year, to end Sept it’s 16% lower than the AVERAGE FOR FY23. Some folks obsessed with data that suits their book and with data that’s not relevant to YU.

Folks DYOR

Can guess who it is that constantly attacks whenever anyone posts an opinion, or factual data, that that person doesn’t like. Constantly posting about daily gas spot price which has no relevance whatsoever IMO to how much Shell are charging YU via their forward hedging contract. The chart in their H1 report clearly shows their price for gas has not followed the same recent uptrend in the daily spot price. I’d accept that further down the road it may impact forward contracts but once again nobody knows what price Shell will be selling to YU. Shell themselves may take any additional profit due to rising energy costs, we just don’t know. But YU are maintaining guidance for this FY. Perhaps forecasts may improve for FY25 and beyond but only time will tell on that score.

As for talk here about Premier Miton increasing their holdings I’ve still not seen anything to support thst, perhaps SNN would privide some evidence?. All I’ve seen and heard is they are reducing here and have significant redemptions.

Still maintain my view that BK will be a seller at some point and now could be an opportune time to offload a few. Perhaos he’s tried and there’s been little interest due to the concerns around the impact that the budget may have.

An increasing reference by YU about energy normalising.

Nobody knows what Shell hedging price to YU is, spot has price is irrelevant, Shell could he taking margin off YU for any increase due to the M/East etc.

Noticed also that Hunting have issued a profit warning this week (yesterday I believe) mentioning lower gas prices in the US. Okay it’s the US but hey.

Believe their Jan FY23 TU stated revenue to exceed £450m, it came in at 2% higher at £460m. Tbh don’t know why at their interims in Sept that they didn’t give an ahead of consensus for FY23 revenue. Consensus was increased after their interims from £405m to £425m, so would have thought that a Nov TU could have been issued with a revenue ahead of consensus, perhaps Rawson at Nov wasn’t too sure what the reported income would be for the FY, which seems odd IMO. No further comment required about Rawsons forecasting capabilities it will only get my pal riled.

SNN

Any info on your assumption that their trust is increasing their holdings in YU as I’ve only seen the opposite.

A removal of business relief for AIM-listed companies in the upcoming Autumn Budget would hit Liontrust and Premier Miton harder than any other asset managers, according to research from Investec.

https://www.investmentweek.co.uk/news/4372278/liontrust-premier-miton-most-impacted-potential-removal-aim-relief

The selling was IMO predominantly due to their interim results weren’t as good as expected - growth in H2 is forecast to be nearly half what it was last year. Along with very little indication that the cash they have can or will be distributed via buybacks and/or acquisitions. Yes redemptions wouldn’t be helping but the sp action clearly shows it was their interims (both the TU and the actual interims).

Perhaps Bobby’s moan was more to do with him trying to sell some via a placing but very little interest was shown by institutions because they are forced sellers?. Personally I think BK selling now wouldn’t be seen as such a negative signal from a business perspective because everyone would assume it’s due to CGT concerns.

SNN

“…and also the income trust, which appears to be increasing its holding in Yu.”

Can you post up to substantiate this assumption please, as I’ve not seen anything. Premier Mitons UK Smaller, UK Micro and the Diverse Income Trust have all reduced their holdings in YU.

Why would one Miton fund take YU shares from another fund that’s a forced seller?, wouldn’t make sense IMO as it’s the AIM IHT concern that’s forced the redemptions in the first place.

Interesting chart in their H1 report / presentation about their hedged forward gas price , it’s nothing like the daily spot price that’s constantly referred to.

They also stated:

“The increase is despite mild temperatures experienced in Spring 2024, which softened customer consumption, reducing revenue by c£9m in the period. In addition, tariffs charges to customers are based on a more normalised energy market, which has led to a lower contribution from uncontracted customers (on variable tariffs which track the prevailing energy market) and lower tariffs secured in our contract portfolio.“

Mitons UK Microcap Trust has had 40% redemptions and YU was the largest holding at 7.6%. If GW is pumping the stocks they hold then beware is all I’ll say. On 2nd Oct they (Miton) made the following statement (extract below):

Redemption of Ordinary Shares and Shareholder Engagement

The Company has an annual voluntary redemption facility through which shareholders are entitled to request the redemption of all or part of their holding of ordinary shares of 0.1 pence each ("Ordinary Shares"). The operation of the Redemption Facility is entirely at the discretion of the board of directors of the Company (the "Board"). The deadline for the 2024 Redemption Point was 1 October 2024.

The total number of Ordinary Shares in respect of which valid redemption requests were received for the 2024 Redemption Point was 31,083,534 (representing 40.4% of the issued ordinary share capital). A further announcement will be made shortly after the 2024 Redemption Point, being 5 November 2024, setting out the Redemption details

Can’t see anyone bidding whilst BK holds 52%. Can’t see anyone bidding anyway.

Shell have got their cash and liquidity all tied up in covenants by the looks of it. Do see them possibly wanting a chunk but then again why would they?, they’ve been there and done that and it lost them a small fortune.

Typo - meant Liberum already put feelers out. My apologies.

Well done Gacky or New Hacky or whoever…….hats off chap. Ramping this, saying it will be worth £100 in a few years then disappears after the July TU just before it tanked. Respect dude and well done, guess you didn’t really want your £100 per share after all………lol.

BK may have been moaning about the lack of institutional interest because he / Shore have already put the feelers out for a placing and even with discount there wasn’t much interest. Not surprising really given all the AIM redemptions that seem to be going on at the moment. Why buy even at discount if the IHT hits the stocks after the budget. Peel Hunt reckon a 20% to 30% hit on AIM. Sone stocks though have already given that up already.

Someone seems incapable of taking their rose tinted glasses off and accepting any other view other than the rubbish “blue skys ahead” mantra that actually never even happened.