Member Info for Discodave4561

Forgot to mention net profit margins. For their peak year 2023 it was 6,7%

FY24 Consensus is a net profit margin of 4.9%, a 27% drop yet Rev is up 46% and spot price uk gas for 2924 to end Nov was only down 17%. So why is that?…..not rocket science!.

Trouble with this site is that if you do t login you can see filtered posts unfortunately.

To. be clear I posted that Rev and earnings are forecast to increase by 10% despite meter numbers increasing 50%. As posted before, the meter numbers aren’t a measure of energy supplied thus income thus profits.

Secondly I’ve not constantly stated that the details of the hedging deal should be made public, in fact I can’t recall ever saying that, but I do believe the covenants should be, what level of liquidity etc, as an investor is want to know how much of their cash is actually tied up and cannot be utilised for growth, buybacks, dividends etc, why wouldn’t you want to know?!

You can list up all your usual ramping crao but so far you’ve not convinced me this is a sustainable growth business.

SNN

Agree, 2023 was without doubt their peak year and now whilst the number of meters may increase 50% their income and earnings are only forecast to increase by 10%.

As you say H2 2024 was a lot lower growth in revenue (-50%) compared to last year (as I’ve been posting but folks seem to ignore the fact Rev growth is slowing at a pace which has obviously correlated with the normalisation of energy prices).

As for the spot price etc you posted they are irrelevant IMO (other than perhaos the trend) as nobody other than YU and Shell know how much they are paying for the energy and also what margins (both Shells and YU’s).

A NED selling 25% of his holdings, not a good sign before their Jan trading update and CMD.

Wonder if Rawson will be a seller again?

The only posting by the boy that sums up the intellect of some on here, including the boy himself:

“when they have no answers to rational questions, it really does tell a very very sorry story”

Woodster grow up - another one filtered. Clearly some on here only want ramp ramp ramp postings.

Ps I meant to add that personally if BK does sell some of his shares then longer term that would be of benefit to the sp. There would I guess be some short term pain depending on the amount of discount and how much he sells, because folks thinking he’s selling up because thats the ceiling on the sp, like his CFO and MD of Retail did IMO. Personally I’d still not be interested as a long term investmemt for the reasons I’ve mentioned but I’d definitely play the momentum in what ever direction it goes.

Lots of chatter elsewhere about a possible move to the main market. IMO I’m not too certain this would be what the business wants given the additional hoops they’d have to jump through and the additional scrutiny. But if they are thinking about it then it won’t be the FTSE350 (market cap not anywhere near high enough as it stands) but in order to attract additional Institutional Investors then IMO this will only happen if BK relinquishes his majority stake which is way to high anyway at nearly 52%. There lies the dilemma, the only way he could sell would be via secondary placing, which begs the question at what sort of discount would that need to be to gain sufficient interest?. Perhaps that’s going to be discussed at the CMD?, then again perhaps the CMD is going to be more focussed on why growth is reducing?, who knows!.

Ipc

Nope, transparency for brokers (TPI’s) comes into force Oct 2024:

“The TPI Commission Transparency requirement will be extended from Microbusinesses to all customers from October 2024.

This means that any consumer using an energy broker will have fully visibility of any commission-related uplift through their quote documents. This could be shown either as an uplift against the unit rate or the standing charge.“

Let’s hope YU’s due diligence on their energy brokers mitigates any future mis-selling compo claims for rogue brokers.

Info on the new regs that came into force in Oct (hence I guess this explains YU not taking on any additional energy brokers):

https://npowerbusinesssolutions.com/resources/new-regulations-to-impact-uk-businesses-and-energy-brokers?hs_amp=true

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-protections-from-rogue-energy-brokers

Looks like a duff one that’s cancelled so don’t fret.

Iffy UT’s too, system blown a fuse!

Meant to say, Classics by daveboy.

We’ve danced to this tune previously if you recall……and say no more :)

If folks believe this is worth £100 like NG & SNN say, then why did the CFO and MD of Retail sell more than half their holdings?

I see they’ve stopped taking on anymore brokers, I guess it followed the investigation into brokers charging hidden fees as well as the new government regulations to prevent mis-selling. The proverbial is likely to hit the fan at some point IMO.

Classics

“when they have no answers to rational questions, it really does tell a very very sorry story”

“Don’t waste your time - do the 100% cancer filter”

‘You’re a prick and complete moron as well”

“You won’t be hearing from me again - but you WILL be hearing from someone else. Keep an eye on your letterbox, ok?”

“enough of this characters BS, I’m going down the solicitor route”

Really!

Silly sausage

Filtered

Following on from my previous posting about the UK gas price I’ve managed to get the average for Nov:

Average price per therm 2023 was 99.4p

Average price per therm 2024 to end Oct 79.7p

Average price per therm 2024 to end Nov 82.7p.

So far this year it’s circa 17% below the average for 2024. So no surprise that YU’s income for H2 is forecast to be half the growth of H2 last year.

Monkey

Naah don’t think so. This is a free BB open to all views and opinions. Or are you saying bearish opinions are not allowed here?!!.

You seriously think I will stop posting because folks resort to personal insults etc, no chance.

Given a regular ramper here is obsessed with the UK spot gas price, which won’t be what Shell are selling to YU, but also seems to think it will result in YU beating forecasts for FY24 (which again won’t be the case as no “ahead of forecasts” TU has been issued), but just to put into context in terms of how much lower the gas price has been in 2024 compared to last year:

Average price per therm 2023 was 99.4p

Average price per therm 2024 to end Oct 79.7p

To also put the record straight - I’m trading YU for various reasons but I’m not a trader, I’m a long term investor that also trades if there’s a decent opportunity to make a profit.

So this idea that somehow traders have a different mindset is IMO not valid.

You are showing yourself up - I stated other potential issues that could be flagged by the CMD. Then there’s your complete lack of knowledge about TA. The RSI changes on a daily basis so to think that an overbought indicator remains in place for days simply demonstrates your lack of knowledge.

Filter back on so have a Merry Christmas and all the best for 2025.

A holders response after being accused of selling up, or being bitter, just for posting their views:

Why do you assume I sold? It’s one of my biggest holdings… but the constant drivel from you makes me wonder whether that’s wise.”

Predicting a TU before Jan thus an ahead forecast by posting “word on the street”, utter garbage and deliberately miskeading and false. There was no such word being circulated in the media social or otherwise, just a pathetic ramp which as the holder above stated, it’s all just drivel. Just like the constant reference to daily gas spot price which has nothing to do with what YU are paying Shell, plus the average gas price FY24 is significantly below that of FY24. Just drivel.